hockeystats.io

Carolina HurricanesCAR 2–5 Final Montréal CanadiensMTL

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 200 2 43
Montréal CanadiensMTL 122 5 19
Playoff odds, % Change
MTL +5.7
CAR -0.0
DET -1.2
OTT -1.2
BOS -1.0
NYI -1.0
PHI -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 24, 2026 6:43 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:36 CAR Nikolaj Ehlers (22)PP Andrei Svechnikov (36), Seth Jarvis (31) · snap xG 0.04 1–0 ▶
7:09 CAR Jordan Staal (18) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.14 2–0 ▶
12:11 MTL Oliver Kapanen (21) Jayden Struble (10), Ivan Demidov (39) · tip-in xG 0.06 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:49 MTL Cole Caufield (44) Nick Suzuki (62), Juraj Slafkovský (35) · snap xG 0.19 2–2 ▶
9:19 MTL Juraj Slafkovský (28) Cole Caufield (32), Noah Dobson (34) · deflected xG 0.14 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
13:53 MTL Ivan Demidov (15) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.40 2–4 ▶
19:00 MTL Jake Evans (11)EN Alexandre Carrier (15) · snap xG 0.36 2–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 60%Deserve to win40% MTL
CARMTL
3.59Expected goals3.95
2Goals (no shootout)5
2.32Expected goals, 5 on 52.30
87Shot attempts45
63Unblocked attempts32
43Shots on goal19

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
15:46 CAR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Andersen, down 4–2
With 4:14 left; MTL scored at 19:00 of the 3rd (2–5)

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MTL shoots
Jaccob Slavin: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:17) Mark Jankowski: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:22) Alexander Nikishin: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:32) Mike Matheson: snap, 139 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:46) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:18) Taylor Hall: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:10) Jordan Staal: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 3:39) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:28) Taylor Hall: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:11) Jaccob Slavin: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:13) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:41) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:25) Lane Hutson: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:45) Jalen Chatfield: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:56) William Carrier: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:23) K'Andre Miller: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:27) Sean Walker: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:16) Jaccob Slavin: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:21) Noah Dobson: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:55) Noah Dobson: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:15) Nick Suzuki: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:36) Zachary Bolduc: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:03) Zachary Bolduc: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:05) Jackson Blake: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:39) Taylor Hall: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:40) Jackson Blake: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:59) Cole Caufield: bat, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:30) Cole Caufield: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:22) Juraj Slafkovský: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:11) Noah Dobson: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:40) Oliver Kapanen: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:58) Oliver Kapanen: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:03) K'Andre Miller: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:45) Sean Walker: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:24) Nick Suzuki: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:46) Jaccob Slavin: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:55) Jalen Chatfield: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 6:40) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:41) Eric Robinson: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:12) William Carrier: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:15) Andrei Svechnikov: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:34) Jordan Martinook: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:42) Alex Newhook: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:12) Jayden Struble: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:34) Lane Hutson: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 12:57) Phillip Danault: snap, 4 ft, xG 0.38 (P2 12:59) Nick Suzuki: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:48) Kaiden Guhle: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:03) Sebastian Aho: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:33) Logan Stankoven: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:09) Mike Reilly: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:23) Alexander Nikishin: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:28) Seth Jarvis: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:37) Seth Jarvis: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:54) Jaccob Slavin: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:23) Cole Caufield: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 19:56) Seth Jarvis: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 1:35) Sean Walker: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:13) Logan Stankoven: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:18) Seth Jarvis: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 3:58) Josh Anderson: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 6:36) Josh Anderson: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:36) Alexandre Carrier: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:42) Sebastian Aho: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:35) Sebastian Aho: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:55) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:20) K'Andre Miller: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:57) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:18) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:46) K'Andre Miller: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:51) Sebastian Aho: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:55) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:50) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:36) Sean Walker: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:39) Jake Evans: snap, 3 ft, xG 0.34 (P3 15:24) Logan Stankoven: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 15:30) Jackson Blake: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:43) Josh Anderson: snap, 138 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 15:50) Alexander Nikishin: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:57) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 90 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:13) Taylor Hall: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:29) Seth Jarvis: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:47) Josh Anderson: snap, 151 ft, xG 0.34 (P3 17:57) Jackson Blake: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:07) Jackson Blake: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:08) Sebastian Aho: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 18:14) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:33) Mark Jankowski: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:47) Nikolaj Ehlers: GOAL, snap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:36) Jordan Staal: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 7:09) Oliver Kapanen: GOAL, tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:11) Cole Caufield: GOAL, snap, 20 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 5:49) Juraj Slafkovský: GOAL, deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:19) Ivan Demidov: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.40 (P3 13:53) Jake Evans: GOAL, snap, 160 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 19:00)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 000 -2 100.49 1121:25
24 Seth Jarvis 011 -3 80.80 0120:51
37 Andrei Svechnikov 011 -2 20.02 4017:54
11 Jordan Staal 101 -1 30.35 4116:57
53 Jackson Blake 000 -2 70.32 0016:46
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 101 -1 110.27 0016:42
71 Taylor Hall 000 -2 60.24 1015:51
22 Logan Stankoven 000 -2 40.20 1014:36
48 Jordan Martinook 000 0 20.10 2113:12
77 Mark Jankowski 000 0 20.11 0009:59
50 Eric Robinson 000 0 10.01 1009:03
28 William Carrier 000 0 40.08 1008:05
Defense
74 Jaccob Slavin 000 -1 50.11 0122:19
21 Alexander Nikishin 000 0 40.06 0420:49
26 Sean Walker 000 -2 50.11 3119:53
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 0 60.17 1019:20
19 K'Andre Miller 000 -3 60.12 0019:10
6 Mike Reilly 000 0 10.01 0112:22
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Frederik Andersen 18414 .778 2.96 -1.04

Montréal Canadiens

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Nick Suzuki 011 +2 30.17 1321:39
20 Juraj Slafkovský 112 +2 40.24 0319:30
13 Cole Caufield 112 +2 50.62 0018:33
71 Jake Evans 101 +1 30.70 1017:40
76 Zachary Bolduc 000 0 20.02 2215:57
24 Phillip Danault 000 +1 10.38 2015:06
85 Alexandre Texier 000 0 10.00 2013:54
17 Josh Anderson 000 0 40.84 3012:43
93 Ivan Demidov 112 +1 10.40 0111:58
15 Alex Newhook 000 +2 20.15 0011:36
91 Oliver Kapanen 101 +1 30.25 0011:04
7 Brendan Gallagher 000 0 20.00 0010:18
Defense
8 Mike Matheson 000 +1 10.00 0421:44
53 Noah Dobson 011 +1 50.04 1220:50
21 Kaiden Guhle 000 +1 30.01 8220:30
45 Alexandre Carrier 011 +1 10.02 0219:18
48 Lane Hutson 000 +2 30.11 0318:54
3 Jayden Struble 011 +2 10.01 2114:00
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jakub Dobes 43241 .953 3.59 +1.59

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +1.28 +0.75 +0.18 +0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:42
5 Jalen Chatfield D +1.02 0.00 +0.11 +0.95 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:20
11 Jordan Staal C +1.00 +0.75 +0.23 -0.05 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 16:57
24 Seth Jarvis C +0.99 +0.55 +0.52 -0.11 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 20:51
74 Jaccob Slavin D +0.61 0.00 +0.07 +0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:19
21 Alexander Nikishin D +0.58 0.00 +0.04 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 20:49
28 William Carrier L +0.52 0.00 +0.05 +0.34 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 8:05
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +0.51 +0.70 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 17:54
48 Jordan Martinook L +0.45 0.00 +0.07 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:12
6 Mike Reilly D +0.30 0.00 +0.01 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:22
50 Eric Robinson L +0.29 0.00 +0.01 +0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:03
77 Mark Jankowski L +0.26 0.00 +0.07 +0.20 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 9:59
20 Sebastian Aho C +0.21 0.00 +0.32 0.00 -0.15 +0.03 +0.01 — 21:25
22 Logan Stankoven C -0.46 0.00 +0.13 -0.58 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:36
53 Jackson Blake R -0.74 0.00 +0.21 -0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:46
71 Taylor Hall L -0.83 0.00 +0.16 -0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:51
31 Frederik Andersen G -1.04 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.04 56:46
26 Sean Walker D -1.47 0.00 +0.07 -1.44 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:53
19 K'Andre Miller D -1.55 0.00 +0.08 -1.44 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 19:10

Montréal Canadiens

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
13 Cole Caufield R +2.14 +1.45 +0.40 +0.16 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:33
20 Juraj Slafkovský L +1.92 +1.30 +0.16 +0.48 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 19:30
93 Ivan Demidov R +1.88 +1.30 +0.26 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:58
14 Nick Suzuki C +1.61 +0.70 +0.11 +0.50 +0.15 +0.02 +0.13 — 21:39
75 Jakub Dobes G +1.59 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.59 59:47
47 Jayden Struble D +1.57 +0.70 +0.01 +0.81 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:00
17 Josh Anderson R +1.13 0.00 +0.55 +0.74 -0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 12:43
48 Lane Hutson D +1.10 0.00 +0.07 +0.89 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 18:54
45 Alexandre Carrier D +1.07 +0.70 +0.01 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:18
24 Phillip Danault C +0.88 0.00 +0.25 +0.62 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 15:06
71 Jake Evans C +0.82 +0.75 +0.45 -0.40 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 17:40
91 Oliver Kapanen C +0.57 +0.75 +0.16 -0.30 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 11:04
53 Noah Dobson D +0.38 +0.55 +0.03 -0.43 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 20:50
11 Brendan Gallagher R +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:18
15 Alex Newhook C +0.03 0.00 +0.10 -0.07 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 11:36
76 Zachary Bolduc R -0.10 0.00 +0.01 -0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 15:57
21 Kaiden Guhle D -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:30
8 Mike Matheson D -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.16 — 21:44
85 Alexandre Texier L -0.58 0.00 0.00 -0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.