Colorado AvalancheCOL 6–2 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL	4	1	1	6	30
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	1	0	1	2	32

Playoff odds, %	Change
PIT	-5.4
COL	+0.0
NYI	+1.2
CBJ	+1.1
PHI	+0.8
OTT	+0.7
BOS	+0.7

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 24, 2026 6:43 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:57	COL	Nathan MacKinnon (46) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.19	1–0 ▶
8:09	PIT	Egor Chinakhov (17) Samuel Girard (11), Kris Letang (25) · slap xG 0.05	1–1 ▶
15:24	COL	Sam Malinski (4) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.04	2–1 ▶
16:44	COL	Martin Necas (33)PP Cale Makar (51), Brock Nelson (26) · slap xG 0.09	3–1 ▶
17:19	COL	Parker Kelly (16) Logan O'Connor (1), Nazem Kadri (32) · snap xG 0.14	4–1 ▶
2nd Period
17:29	COL	Martin Necas (34) Devon Toews (17), Sam Malinski (27) · wrist xG 0.13	5–1 ▶
3rd Period
11:47	PIT	Rickard Rakell (15) Sidney Crosby (36), Bryan Rust (32) · wrist xG 0.27	5–2 ▶
16:20	COL	Ross Colton (9)EN Valeri Nichushkin (26), Jack Drury (14) · wrist xG 0.52	6–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 21%Deserve to win79% PIT

COL		PIT
2.35	Expected goals	3.64
6	Goals (no shootout)	2
1.36	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.16
52	Shot attempts	68
40	Unblocked attempts	47
30	Shots on goal	32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
16:44	PIT	Goalie	Goalie · Silovs −2.2 goals saved 3 goals on 0.81 xG, 12 shots on goal
3rd Period
10:31	COL	Goalie	Goalie · Wedgewood +2.1 goals saved 1 goal on 3.09 xG, 28 shots on goal
12:20	PIT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced COL 1.65–0.40 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:20 to 12:20 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
16:10	PIT	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Silovs, down 5–2 With 3:50 left; COL scored at 16:20 of the 3rd (6–2)

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
29	Nathan MacKinnon	1	0	1	+1	6	0.53	0	0	19:03
92	Gabriel Landeskog	0	0	0	0	3	0.07	1	4	16:27
88	Martin Necas	2	0	2	+1	4	0.29	1	0	16:20
91	Nazem Kadri	0	1	1	+2	2	0.12	0	1	16:12
11	Brock Nelson	0	1	1	+1	1	0.06	1	0	15:50
25	Logan O'Connor	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	0	15:05
43	Valeri Nichushkin	0	1	1	+1	5	0.06	1	1	14:58
18	Jack Drury	0	1	1	+1	2	0.05	4	0	14:06
17	Parker Kelly	1	0	1	+1	2	0.14	0	1	13:21
79	Ross Colton	1	0	1	0	3	0.57	1	1	11:50
22	Joel Kiviranta	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	0	11:15
93	Zakhar Bardakov	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	0	0	10:41
Defense
8	Cale Makar	0	1	1	-1	3	0.07	0	5	22:04
27	Brett Kulak	0	0	0	-1	4	0.08	0	3	21:53
7	Devon Toews	0	1	1	+3	2	0.02	0	2	19:29
42	Josh Manson	0	0	0	+1	3	0.06	2	1	18:29
70	Sam Malinski	1	1	2	+3	6	0.09	1	0	17:29
84	Brent Burns	0	0	0	+1	3	0.02	0	1	17:28

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Scott Wedgewood	32	2	30	.938	3.64	+1.64

Pittsburgh Penguins

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
67	Rickard Rakell	1	0	1	-3	5	0.63	1	0	22:40
17	Bryan Rust	0	1	1	-3	6	0.39	2	0	21:40
87	Sidney Crosby	0	1	1	-3	10	0.71	1	0	21:11
39	Anthony Mantha	0	0	0	-1	3	0.42	0	0	18:08
59	Egor Chinakhov	1	0	1	-1	8	0.43	1	0	15:30
18	Tommy Novak	0	0	0	0	2	0.27	0	0	13:56
19	Connor Dewar	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0	1	12:58
52	Noel Acciari	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	3	12:51
81	Ben Kindel	0	0	0	0	4	0.22	0	0	12:20
16	Justin Brazeau	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	0	2	10:48
25	Elmer Soderblom	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	3	0	10:47
41	Ville Koivunen	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	10:04
Defense
65	Erik Karlsson	0	0	0	-2	7	0.19	0	1	23:53
29	Parker Wotherspoon	0	0	0	-1	3	0.01	2	0	20:53
49	Samuel Girard	0	1	1	+1	3	0.01	0	1	18:11
58	Kris Letang	0	1	1	+1	5	0.06	0	1	17:16
75	Connor Clifton	0	0	0	-2	4	0.06	5	1	16:36
6	Ryan Shea	0	0	0	-2	2	0.12	0	0	16:23

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Arturs Silovs	29	5	24	.828	1.83	-3.17

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
41 Scott Wedgewood G	+1.64	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.64	60:00
88 Martin Necas C	+1.49	+1.50	+0.19	-0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:20
70 Sam Malinski D	+1.42	+1.30	+0.06	+0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:29
11 Brock Nelson C	+0.99	+0.55	+0.04	+0.26	+0.15	+0.03	-0.04	—	15:50
7 Devon Toews D	+0.93	+0.70	+0.01	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:29
17 Parker Kelly C	+0.83	+0.75	+0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.02	+0.01	—	13:21
20 Ross Colton C	+0.77	+0.75	+0.37	-0.41	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	11:50
29 Nathan MacKinnon C	+0.76	+0.75	+0.34	-0.34	0.00	-0.02	+0.02	—	19:03
13 Valeri Nichushkin R	+0.58	+0.70	+0.04	-0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:58
18 Jack Drury C	+0.51	+0.55	+0.03	-0.02	0.00	+0.03	-0.08	—	14:06
25 Logan O'Connor R	+0.51	+0.70	0.00	-0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:05
91 Nazem Kadri C	+0.42	+0.55	+0.08	+0.06	-0.30	-0.02	+0.05	—	16:12
42 Josh Manson D	+0.34	0.00	+0.04	+0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	18:29
84 Brent Burns D	+0.19	0.00	+0.01	+0.30	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	17:28
8 Cale Makar D	-0.01	+0.70	+0.05	-0.95	0.00	0.00	+0.19	—	22:04
94 Joel Kiviranta L	-0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:15
92 Gabriel Landeskog L	-0.16	0.00	+0.05	-0.51	+0.15	+0.01	+0.14	—	16:27
93 Zakhar Bardakov C	-0.17	0.00	+0.07	-0.22	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:41
27 Brett Kulak D	-0.77	0.00	+0.05	-0.97	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	21:53

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
59 Egor Chinakhov R	+1.39	+0.75	+0.28	+0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:30
49 Samuel Girard D	+1.36	+0.70	+0.01	+0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	18:11
58 Kris Letang D	+0.99	+0.55	+0.04	+0.50	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	17:16
18 Tommy Novak C	+0.91	0.00	+0.18	+0.43	+0.30	0.00	0.00	—	13:56
39 Anthony Mantha R	+0.77	0.00	+0.27	+0.38	+0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	18:08
87 Sidney Crosby C	+0.76	+0.70	+0.46	-0.40	0.00	+0.04	-0.04	—	21:11
67 Rickard Rakell R	+0.72	+0.75	+0.41	-0.45	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	22:40
16 Justin Brazeau R	+0.62	0.00	+0.07	+0.48	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	10:48
81 Ben Kindel C	+0.61	0.00	+0.15	+0.51	0.00	-0.07	+0.02	—	12:20
41 Ville Koivunen R	+0.57	0.00	0.00	+0.55	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	10:06
65 Erik Karlsson D	+0.57	0.00	+0.12	+0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	23:53
17 Bryan Rust R	+0.35	+0.55	+0.25	-0.43	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	21:40
25 Elmer Soderblom L	+0.14	0.00	+0.01	+0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:45
19 Connor Dewar C	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.06	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	12:58
55 Noel Acciari C	+0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.12	-0.15	0.00	+0.11	—	12:51
28 Parker Wotherspoon D	+0.07	0.00	+0.01	+0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	20:53
5 Ryan Shea D	-0.11	0.00	+0.08	-0.18	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:23
75 Connor Clifton D	-0.24	0.00	+0.04	-0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:36
37 Arturs Silovs G	-3.17	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-3.17	59:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.