| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 26 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:12 | Alexander Kerfoot (3) Sean Durzi (19), Ian Cole (17) · snap xG 0.02 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 14:27 | Jack Roslovic (18) Jake Walman (11), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (34) · wrist xG 0.05 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 11:24 | Matt Savoie (12)SH Evan Bouchard (61), Adam Henrique (11) · wrist xG 0.13 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 11:59 | Lawson Crouse (20)PP Michael Carcone (13), MacKenzie Weegar (20) · snap xG 0.22 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 12:07 | Connor McDavid (39) Mattias Ekholm (32), Evan Bouchard (62) · wrist xG 0.12 | 3–2 ▶ | |
| 15:04 | Jack Roslovic (19) Zach Hyman (18), Evan Bouchard (63) · wrist xG 0.05 | 4–2 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 19:52 | Connor McDavid (40)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.94 | 5–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| EDM | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.36 | Expected goals | 1.70 |
| 5 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 2.21 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.22 |
| 62 | Shot attempts | 59 |
| 42 | Unblocked attempts | 33 |
| 26 | Shots on goal | 18 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 15:04 | UTA | Goalie | Goalie · Vejmelka −2.3 goals saved
4 goals on 1.67 xG, 13 shots on goal |
| 20:00 | UTA | Goalie change | Goalie change · Vanecek in for Vejmelka
The start of the 3rd; Vejmelka had allowed 4 goals on 15 shots (1.82 xG) |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 17:20 | UTA | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Vanecek, down 4–2
With 2:40 left; EDM scored at 19:52 of the 3rd (5–2) |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 97 | Connor McDavid | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 1.27 | 0 | 1 | 20:42 |
| 92 | Vasily Podkolzin | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 17:44 |
| 18 | Zach Hyman | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 | 0.19 | 7 | 0 | 17:42 |
| 93 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 3 | 17:08 |
| 22 | Matt Savoie | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 8 | 0.59 | 1 | 0 | 17:04 |
| 16 | Jason Dickinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 16:36 |
| 42 | Kasperi Kapanen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 3 | 0 | 16:03 |
| 96 | Jack Roslovic | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 7 | 0.21 | 1 | 1 | 15:44 |
| 81 | Josh Samanski | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 1 | 1 | 10:43 |
| 19 | Adam Henrique | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 10:04 |
| 15 | Roby Jarventie | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2 | 08:52 |
| 46 | Max Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 08:32 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 2 | Evan Bouchard | 0 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 9 | 0.22 | 0 | 3 | 23:04 |
| 25 | Darnell Nurse | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.09 | 2 | 2 | 21:42 |
| 5 | Connor Murphy | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0 | 2 | 21:05 |
| 14 | Mattias Ekholm | 0 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 4 | 0.12 | 1 | 0 | 21:00 |
| 96 | Jake Walman | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4 | 17:43 |
| 49 | Ty Emberson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 3 | 15:33 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry | 18 | 2 | 16 | .889 | 1.70 | -0.30 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 9 | Clayton Keller | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 0.21 | 0 | 1 | 22:48 |
| 11 | Dylan Guenther | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 0.04 | 1 | 0 | 22:12 |
| 92 | Logan Cooley | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 0.13 | 1 | 1 | 19:30 |
| 67 | Lawson Crouse | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.45 | 2 | 2 | 19:14 |
| 8 | Nick Schmaltz | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 |
| 22 | Jack McBain | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.06 | 3 | 1 | 16:30 |
| 10 | JJ Peterka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.05 | 0 | 1 | 15:45 |
| 53 | Michael Carcone | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.14 | 3 | 0 | 15:40 |
| 56 | Kailer Yamamoto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
| 14 | Alexander Kerfoot | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0.10 | 2 | 0 | 12:23 |
| 82 | Kevin Stenlund | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.08 | 1 | 0 | 10:42 |
| 27 | Barrett Hayton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 00:17 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 98 | Mikhail Sergachev | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 4 | 22:30 |
| 52 | MacKenzie Weegar | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.01 | 3 | 1 | 19:58 |
| 6 | John Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0 | 1 | 19:48 |
| 88 | Nate Schmidt | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.04 | 0 | 2 | 19:29 |
| 5 | Sean Durzi | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0 | 4 | 18:07 |
| 28 | Ian Cole | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 15:17 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | 15 | 4 | 11 | .733 | 1.82 | -2.18 |
| Vitek Vanecek | 10 | 0 | 10 | 1.000 | 0.60 | +0.60 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97 Connor McDavid C | +3.38 | +1.50 | +0.83 | +1.01 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | — | 20:42 |
| 2 Evan Bouchard D | +2.97 | +1.80 | +0.14 | +0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | — | 23:04 |
| 28 Jack Roslovic C | +2.11 | +1.50 | +0.14 | +0.40 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.05 | — | 15:44 |
| 22 Matt Savoie C | +2.03 | +0.75 | +0.38 | +0.91 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.02 | — | 17:04 |
| 96 Jake Walman D | +1.42 | +0.70 | +0.10 | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.14 | — | 17:43 |
| 14 Mattias Ekholm D | +1.21 | +0.70 | +0.08 | +0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 21:00 |
| 18 Zach Hyman L | +1.05 | +0.70 | +0.12 | +0.35 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 17:42 |
| 93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | +1.03 | +0.55 | +0.06 | +0.31 | 0.00 | -0.05 | +0.15 | — | 17:08 |
| 92 Vasily Podkolzin R | +0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.88 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 17:44 |
| 19 Adam Henrique C | +0.75 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:04 |
| 49 Ty Emberson D | +0.56 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | — | 15:33 |
| 15 Roby Jarventie L | +0.48 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.31 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.10 | — | 8:52 |
| 5 Connor Murphy D | +0.44 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 21:05 |
| 25 Darnell Nurse D | +0.35 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 21:42 |
| 46 Max Jones L | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 8:32 |
| 81 Josh Samanski C | -0.02 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 10:43 |
| 42 Kasperi Kapanen R | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:03 |
| 16 Jason Dickinson C | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.17 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:36 |
| 35 Tristan Jarry G | -0.30 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.30 | 60:00 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 Michael Carcone L | +0.72 | +0.70 | +0.09 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:40 |
| 56 Kailer Yamamoto R | +0.65 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.61 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 13:38 |
| 50 Sean Durzi D | +0.61 | +0.70 | +0.02 | -0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 18:07 |
| 41 Vitek Vanecek G | +0.60 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.60 | 17:28 |
| 67 Lawson Crouse L | +0.45 | +0.75 | +0.29 | -0.66 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.10 | — | 19:14 |
| 9 Clayton Keller R | +0.40 | 0.00 | +0.14 | -0.06 | +0.30 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 22:48 |
| 28 Ian Cole D | +0.29 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 15:17 |
| 22 Jack McBain C | +0.02 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.03 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 16:30 |
| 27 Barrett Hayton C | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 0:17 |
| 15 Alexander Kerfoot C | -0.02 | +0.75 | +0.07 | -0.85 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 12:23 |
| 88 Nate Schmidt D | -0.09 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 19:29 |
| 92 Logan Cooley C | -0.20 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.37 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.07 | — | 19:30 |
| 52 MacKenzie Weegar D | -0.28 | +0.55 | +0.01 | -0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 19:58 |
| 8 Nick Schmaltz C | -0.31 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.40 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 18:44 |
| 6 John Marino D | -0.32 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 19:48 |
| 98 Mikhail Sergachev D | -0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 22:30 |
| 77 JJ Peterka R | -0.52 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.55 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.01 | — | 15:45 |
| 11 Dylan Guenther R | -0.83 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 22:12 |
| 82 Kevin Stenlund C | -0.86 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.93 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 10:42 |
| 70 Karel Vejmelka G | -2.18 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -2.18 | 40:00 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.