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Calgary FlamesCGY 3–6 Final Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Thursday, April 2, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Calgary FlamesCGY 120 3 22
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 033 6 34
Playoff odds, % Change
VGK +5.9
CGY -0.0
LAK -1.3
SJS -1.2
NSH -1.1
SEA -1.1
WPG -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 2, 2026 9:50 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:41 CGY Morgan Frost (19) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.20 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
1:47 VGK Mitch Marner (21) Shea Theodore (27), Brayden McNabb (6) · tip-in xG 0.09 1–1 ▶
4:38 CGY Blake Coleman (18) Mikael Backlund (25), Joel Farabee (17) · wrist xG 0.18 2–1 ▶
6:42 VGK Mitch Marner (22) Rasmus Andersson (27), Jack Eichel (54) · wrist xG 0.15 2–2 ▶
12:11 CGY Blake Coleman (19) Unassisted · snap xG 0.15 3–2 ▶
16:21 VGK Pavel Dorofeyev (35)PP Mitch Marner (52) · slap xG 0.13 3–3 ▶
3rd Period
12:20 VGK Brett Howden (10) Shea Theodore (28), Ivan Barbashev (33) · wrist xG 0.15 3–4 ▶
14:59 VGK Ivan Barbashev (22) Mitch Marner (53) · wrist xG 0.03 3–5 ▶
18:31 VGK Mitch Marner (23) Mark Stone (43), Ivan Barbashev (34) · wrap-around xG 0.05 3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CGY 31%Deserve to win69% VGK
CGYVGK
2.12Expected goals3.56
3Goals (no shootout)6
1.36Expected goals, 5 on 52.08
37Shot attempts71
28Unblocked attempts48
22Shots on goal34

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:22 CGY Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 5–3
With 2:38 left
18:31 CGY Goalie Goalie · Wolf −2.8 goals saved
6 goals on 3.18 xG, 34 shots on goal

Shot map

CGY shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Mark Stone: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:11) Mark Stone: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.29 (P1 1:11) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 1:32) Zayne Parekh: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 2:47) Morgan Frost: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:51) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:25) Mitch Marner: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:18) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 5:20) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:42) Shea Theodore: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:15) Mark Stone: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:56) Olli Maatta: wrist, 141 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:02) Reilly Smith: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:12) Brayden McNabb: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:32) Jack Eichel: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:51) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:04) Noah Hanifin: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:08) Matt Coronato: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:52) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:30) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:32) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:29) Ivan Barbashev: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:35) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 15:00) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:51) Matvei Gridin: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 18:33) Morgan Frost: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 18:52) Joel Farabee: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 19:29) Victor Olofsson: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 19:37) Zach Whitecloud: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:43) Shea Theodore: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:07) Yegor Sharangovich: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:18) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:37) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:28) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:08) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:15) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 8:33) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:27) Brett Howden: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:51) Brett Howden: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.50 (P2 10:54) Martin Pospisil: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:30) Shea Theodore: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:00) Adam Klapka: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:21) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:41) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:59) Colton Sissons: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:41) Ryan Strome: wrist, 99 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:49) Mitch Marner: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:02) Jack Eichel: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:10) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:48) Matt Coronato: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:05) Joel Farabee: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:46) Yan Kuznetsov: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:20) Colton Sissons: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 1:54) Connor Zary: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:49) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:01) Cole Smith: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:47) Blake Coleman: slap, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 8:29) Pavel Dorofeyev: bat, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:14) Pavel Dorofeyev: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:15) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:09) Jack Eichel: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:26) Mitch Marner: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:58) Matt Coronato: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 16:45) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 184 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 17:24) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 156 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:37) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:45) Blake Coleman: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 17:51) Morgan Frost: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 7:41) Mitch Marner: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:47) Blake Coleman: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 4:38) Mitch Marner: GOAL, wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 6:42) Blake Coleman: GOAL, snap, 32 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:11) Pavel Dorofeyev: GOAL, slap, 34 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:21) Brett Howden: GOAL, wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 12:20) Ivan Barbashev: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:59) Mitch Marner: GOAL, wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:31)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
11 Mikael Backlund 011 +1 00.00 0220:20
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 -1 10.02 0119:29
86 Joel Farabee 011 +1 20.21 0218:37
20 Blake Coleman 202 +1 50.57 0118:05
16 Morgan Frost 101 -1 30.32 3015:43
27 Matt Coronato 000 -1 50.14 0015:34
92 Matvei Gridin 000 -1 60.45 0215:09
22 Ryan Strome 000 -1 10.00 0112:27
95 Victor Olofsson 000 -1 20.19 0011:58
47 Connor Zary 000 -1 10.01 0009:28
43 Adam Klapka 000 -1 10.05 6008:22
76 Martin Pospisil 000 -1 10.06 9008:15
Defense
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 +1 20.02 3225:16
7 Kevin Bahl 000 -1 00.00 2123:05
3 Olli Maatta 000 -3 10.00 0319:50
19 Zayne Parekh 000 -1 40.07 0018:12
37 Yan Kuznetsov 000 +2 10.00 0316:46
94 Brayden Pachal 000 -2 10.00 1314:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 34628 .824 3.18 -2.82

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 011 -1 70.15 0020:35
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 101 0 80.63 0119:45
48 Tomas Hertl 000 -1 30.15 2218:09
93 Mitch Marner 325 +3 90.40 0017:45
61 Mark Stone 011 +3 30.41 0017:31
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 20.22 0015:08
21 Brett Howden 101 0 40.68 0115:02
49 Ivan Barbashev 123 +4 30.16 3014:47
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 00.00 1013:53
19 Reilly Smith 000 0 10.00 0013:40
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 -1 30.00 1213:10
22 Cole Smith 000 -1 10.04 6010:27
Defense
4 Rasmus Andersson 011 +2 60.46 0020:50
15 Noah Hanifin 000 +2 50.08 2219:46
3 Brayden McNabb 011 +1 40.01 0118:06
27 Shea Theodore 022 +1 60.06 0018:02
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 -1 50.10 7015:45
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 -1 10.00 1013:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Carter Hart 22319 .864 2.12 -0.88

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
20 Blake Coleman L +2.25 +1.50 +0.37 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:05
11 Mikael Backlund C +1.12 +0.70 0.00 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:20
16 Morgan Frost C +0.74 +0.75 +0.21 -0.25 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 15:43
92 Matvei Gridin R +0.60 0.00 +0.29 +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:09
28 Zach Whitecloud D +0.60 0.00 +0.01 +0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:16
86 Joel Farabee L +0.52 +0.55 +0.14 -0.26 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 18:37
27 Matt Coronato R +0.33 0.00 +0.09 +0.23 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 15:34
37 Yan Kuznetsov D -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 16:46
7 Kevin Bahl D -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 23:05
19 Zayne Parekh D -0.16 0.00 +0.05 -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 18:12
76 Martin Pospisil C -0.33 0.00 +0.04 -0.51 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:15
95 Victor Olofsson L -0.41 0.00 +0.12 -0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:58
47 Connor Zary C -0.59 0.00 +0.01 -0.62 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 9:28
22 Ryan Strome C -0.69 0.00 0.00 -0.53 -0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 12:27
43 Adam Klapka R -0.80 0.00 +0.03 -0.51 -0.30 0.00 -0.02 — 8:22
94 Brayden Pachal D -0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.79 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 14:43
17 Yegor Sharangovich C -1.07 0.00 +0.01 -1.15 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 19:29
3 Olli Maatta D -1.33 0.00 0.00 -1.49 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 19:50
32 Dustin Wolf G -2.82 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.82 59:11

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
93 Mitch Marner R +4.92 +3.65 +0.26 +0.83 +0.15 +0.01 +0.02 — 17:45
49 Ivan Barbashev L +3.61 +1.85 +0.11 +1.63 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 14:47
4 Rasmus Andersson D +2.27 +0.70 +0.30 +1.31 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:50
61 Mark Stone R +1.79 +0.70 +0.27 +0.86 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:31
21 Brett Howden C +1.78 +0.75 +0.44 +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:02
27 Shea Theodore D +1.45 +1.40 +0.04 +0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:02
15 Noah Hanifin D +1.34 0.00 +0.05 +1.21 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:46
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +1.32 +0.75 +0.41 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:45
3 Brayden McNabb D +0.71 +0.55 +0.01 +0.01 +0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 18:06
10 Colton Sissons C +0.69 0.00 +0.14 +0.58 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 15:08
9 Jack Eichel C +0.15 +0.55 +0.10 -0.37 0.00 -0.06 -0.06 — 20:35
48 Tomas Hertl C +0.11 0.00 +0.10 -0.22 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 18:09
19 Reilly Smith R +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:40
5 Jeremy Lauzon D -0.03 0.00 +0.06 -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:45
26 Nic Dowd C -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.05 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 13:53
55 Keegan Kolesar R -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.44 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 13:10
22 Cole Smith R -0.33 0.00 +0.03 -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 10:27
6 Kaedan Korczak D -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:45
79 Carter Hart G -0.88 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.88 59:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.