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Tampa Bay LightningTBL 2–6 Final Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 011 2 30
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 015 6 32
Playoff odds, % Change
OTT +11.8
TBL +0.0
DET -5.0
NYI -2.1
CBJ -2.0
PHI -1.7
WSH -0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 7, 2026 6:16 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
15:46 OTT Jordan Spence (7) Brady Tkachuk (33), Tim Stützle (47) · wrist xG 0.14 0–1 ▶
18:23 TBL Nick Paul (7) Corey Perry (20), Nikita Kucherov (84) · backhand xG 0.17 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
2:45 OTT Fabian Zetterlund (14) Brady Tkachuk (34), Cameron Crotty (1) · wrist xG 0.03 1–2 ▶
4:39 OTT Jake Sanderson (12) Tim Stützle (48), Brady Tkachuk (35) · backhand xG 0.14 1–3 ▶
10:35 TBL Corey Perry (16) Ryan McDonagh (13), Nick Paul (8) · tip-in xG 0.06 2–3 ▶
12:51 OTT Tim Stützle (34)PP Dylan Cozens (29), Drake Batherson (36) · wrist xG 0.32 2–4 ▶
13:04 OTT Jake Sanderson (13)PP Brady Tkachuk (36), Drake Batherson (37) · backhand xG 0.22 2–5 ▶
16:41 OTT Shane Pinto (22)SHEN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.93 2–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 18%Deserve to win82% OTT
TBLOTT
1.86Expected goals5.24
2Goals (no shootout)6
1.68Expected goals, 5 on 52.35
58Shot attempts63
44Unblocked attempts51
30Shots on goal32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
16:10 OTT xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.40–0.21
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:50 to 16:50 of the 3rd; goals 3–1

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots
Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 0:17) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:18) Jake Sanderson: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:09) Drake Batherson: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:20) Artem Zub: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:23) Tim Stützle: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:24) Nick Paul: tip-in, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:43) Brady Tkachuk: slap, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 4:05) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:18) Dylan Duke: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:20) Jake Sanderson: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:46) Dylan Cozens: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 7:56) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:40) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:20) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:32) Darren Raddysh: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:35) Nick Paul: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:37) J.J. Moser: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:40) Darren Raddysh: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:06) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:14) Brayden Point: tip-in, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:34) Warren Foegele: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 14:59) Nick Cousins: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 15:23) Michael Amadio: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 15:37) Lassi Thomson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:41) Nikolas Matinpalo: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:15) Drake Batherson: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:27) Erik Cernak: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:58) Brayden Point: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:38) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 3:47) Tim Stützle: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:04) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:41) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:46) Oliver Bjorkstrand: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:03) Lars Eller: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:21) Cameron Crotty: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:36) Darren Raddysh: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:43) J.J. Moser: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:45) Jake Sanderson: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:35) Claude Giroux: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 13:14) Nick Paul: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:36) Jake Sanderson: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:00) Dylan Cozens: backhand, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:41) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:43) Jake Sanderson: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:51) Brady Tkachuk: bat, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:27) Shane Pinto: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 16:18) Warren Foegele: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:11) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:38) Tim Stützle: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:17) Claude Giroux: wrist, 107 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:58) Yanni Gourde: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:34) Nick Paul: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:22) J.J. Moser: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:29) Brayden Point: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:30) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:34) Darren Raddysh: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:38) Brayden Point: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:58) Ridly Greig: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:18) Ridly Greig: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:19) Brady Tkachuk: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:40) Fabian Zetterlund: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:22) Nikolas Matinpalo: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:34) Jordan Spence: wrist, 120 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:48) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:19) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:48) Emil Lilleberg: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:02) Jake Guentzel: backhand, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:31) Ryan McDonagh: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:53) Zemgus Girgensons: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:55) Oliver Bjorkstrand: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:07) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:35) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:47) Claude Giroux: wrist, 103 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:48) Jakob Pelletier: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 10:54) Darren Raddysh: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:59) Brady Tkachuk: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:35) Drake Batherson: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:46) Dylan Cozens: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.38 (P3 12:49) Dylan Cozens: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 13:52) Ridly Greig: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 14:09) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 172 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 16:08) Gage Goncalves: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:24) Gage Goncalves: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 17:37) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:44) Jakob Pelletier: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 18:07) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:20) Jordan Spence: GOAL, wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 15:46) Nick Paul: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 18:23) Fabian Zetterlund: GOAL, wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:45) Jake Sanderson: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:39) Corey Perry: GOAL, tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:35) Tim Stützle: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.32 (P3 12:51) Jake Sanderson: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 13:04) Shane Pinto: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.93 (P3 16:41)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
59 Jake Guentzel 000 -2 60.20 0020:29
86 Nikita Kucherov 011 -1 70.03 0019:41
21 Brayden Point 000 -1 50.13 0117:33
37 Yanni Gourde 000 -1 20.02 2217:13
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 0 20.03 3115:46
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 -2 30.15 2115:01
93 Gage Goncalves 000 +1 20.18 0014:52
90 Corey Perry 112 0 10.06 1014:17
20 Nick Paul 112 +1 50.41 2013:27
94 Conor Geekie 000 -1 00.00 1011:29
22 Jakob Pelletier 000 -1 20.31 2010:22
53 Dylan Duke 000 -1 20.04 0009:22
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 000 -3 60.09 1020:42
90 J.J. Moser 000 -1 40.03 0120:23
78 Emil Lilleberg 000 +1 30.02 0019:55
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 0 20.13 1219:43
81 Erik Cernak 000 0 30.01 0318:22
27 Ryan McDonagh 011 0 30.02 0118:05
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jonas Johansson 31526 .839 3.96 -1.04

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Tim Stützle 123 0 50.37 0118:31
12 Shane Pinto 101 +1 31.07 3117:20
19 Drake Batherson 022 -1 50.15 1017:17
71 Ridly Greig 000 +1 30.26 2017:02
8 Brady Tkachuk 044 +1 90.70 3016:42
22 Michael Amadio 000 +1 10.11 2016:34
24 Dylan Cozens 011 0 50.63 2016:21
28 Claude Giroux 000 0 40.15 0015:31
21 Nick Cousins 000 +1 20.15 0011:44
20 Lars Eller 000 +1 10.08 1111:12
20 Fabian Zetterlund 101 0 40.20 1009:23
37 Warren Foegele 000 0 30.19 0008:23
Defense
85 Jake Sanderson 202 +2 90.94 1224:08
2 Artem Zub 000 +1 10.00 0523:58
10 Jordan Spence 101 +1 40.14 1022:59
33 Nikolas Matinpalo 000 0 20.07 1118:55
5 Cameron Crotty 011 0 10.04 1014:50
60 Lassi Thomson 000 0 10.01 0113:10
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Linus Ullmark 30228 .933 1.86 -0.14

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
20 Nick Paul L +1.94 +1.30 +0.27 +0.20 +0.15 +0.03 0.00 — 13:27
10 Corey Perry R +1.30 +1.45 +0.04 -0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:17
86 Nikita Kucherov R +0.90 +0.55 +0.02 +0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:41
27 Ryan McDonagh D +0.81 +0.70 +0.01 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:05
21 Brayden Point C +0.15 0.00 +0.08 -0.02 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 17:33
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.13 0.00 +0.12 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:52
81 Erik Cernak D -0.01 0.00 +0.01 -0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 18:22
78 Emil Lilleberg D -0.03 0.00 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:55
11 Jakob Pelletier L -0.07 0.00 +0.20 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:22
59 Jake Guentzel C -0.10 0.00 +0.13 -0.22 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 20:29
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D -0.29 0.00 +0.09 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 19:43
28 Zemgus Girgensons C -0.34 0.00 +0.02 -0.39 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 15:46
14 Conor Geekie C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.29 -0.15 +0.08 -0.02 — 11:29
53 Dylan Duke L -0.39 0.00 +0.02 -0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:22
90 J.J. Moser D -0.45 0.00 +0.02 -0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:23
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R -0.51 0.00 +0.10 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:01
43 Darren Raddysh D -0.71 0.00 +0.06 -0.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:42
37 Yanni Gourde C -0.88 0.00 +0.01 -0.78 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 17:13
31 Jonas Johansson G -1.04 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.04 58:46

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
7 Brady Tkachuk L +3.74 +2.65 +0.45 +0.65 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 16:42
18 Tim Stützle C +2.80 +2.00 +0.24 +0.53 0.00 +0.02 +0.01 — 18:31
85 Jake Sanderson D +2.59 +1.50 +0.61 +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 24:08
12 Shane Pinto C +1.54 +0.75 +0.69 +0.09 0.00 -0.06 +0.07 — 17:20
19 Drake Batherson R +1.39 +1.10 +0.10 +0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:17
10 Jordan Spence D +1.39 +0.75 +0.09 +0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:59
24 Dylan Cozens C +1.32 +0.70 +0.41 +0.23 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 16:21
20 Fabian Zetterlund L +0.95 +0.75 +0.13 +0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:23
5 Cameron Crotty D +0.94 +0.55 +0.02 +0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:50
21 Nick Cousins C +0.56 0.00 +0.10 +0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:44
22 Michael Amadio R +0.49 0.00 +0.07 +0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:34
60 Lassi Thomson D +0.44 0.00 +0.01 +0.27 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 13:10
71 Ridly Greig C +0.40 0.00 +0.17 +0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:02
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D +0.28 0.00 +0.04 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:55
2 Artem Zub D +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 23:58
89 Lars Eller C +0.03 0.00 +0.05 -0.05 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 11:12
28 Claude Giroux R -0.01 0.00 +0.10 -0.05 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 15:31
37 Warren Foegele L -0.06 0.00 +0.12 -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:23
35 Linus Ullmark G -0.14 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.14 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.