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Nashville PredatorsNSH 2–3 Final/OT Dallas StarsDAL

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH 2000 2 27
Dallas StarsDAL 0111 3 25
Playoff odds, % Change
NSH -5.3
DAL +0.0
SEA +1.2
EDM +1.0
SJS +1.0
LAK +0.6
UTA +0.4
WPG +0.3

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 28, 2026 7:58 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
14:26 NSH Michael Bunting (13)PP Matthew Wood (9), Luke Evangelista (35) · snap xG 0.14 1–0 ▶
15:35 NSH Steven Stamkos (30) Luke Evangelista (36) · snap xG 0.13 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
16:18 DAL Wyatt Johnston (32)PP Jamie Benn (14), Jason Robertson (35) · snap xG 0.18 2–1 ▶
3rd Period
5:31 DAL Nathan Bastian (4) Thomas Harley (21) · wrist xG 0.40 2–2 ▶
Overtime
1:47 DAL Jason Robertson (33) Miro Heiskanen (41), Wyatt Johnston (31) · snap xG 0.40 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 43%Deserve to win57% DAL
NSHDAL
2.88Expected goals3.30
2Goals (no shootout)3
0.95Expected goals, 5 on 52.05
48Shot attempts58
35Unblocked attempts40
27Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
12:46 NSH Deserve to win Deserve to win · NSH takes the lead, 62–38%
DAL had led since 2:53 of the 1st, by as much as 69%
2nd Period
17:00 NSH No shift No shift · Wilsby, 30:51 on the bench
No shift after 4:34 of the 2nd; 8 shifts (5:48) before that

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots
Ryan O'Reilly: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:27) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 1:39) Justin Hryckowian: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:53) Nick Perbix: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:23) Filip Forsberg: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:27) Tyson Jost: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:47) Adam Erne: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:04) Steven Stamkos: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:36) Thomas Harley: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:48) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:12) Erik Haula: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:34) Tyson Jost: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:20) Adam Wilsby: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:49) Wyatt Johnston: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 11:13) Matt Duchene: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:55) Roman Josi: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 12:43) Jonathan Marchessault: snap, 3 ft, xG 0.70 (P1 12:46) Filip Forsberg: poke, 4 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 12:47) Mavrik Bourque: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:49) Matt Duchene: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:17) Nathan Bastian: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 16:55) Nils Lundkvist: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:42) Thomas Harley: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:32) Jason Robertson: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 2:21) Esa Lindell: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:16) Thomas Harley: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:46) Jonathan Marchessault: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:21) Jamie Benn: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:42) Michael Bunting: slap, 76 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:52) Tyson Jost: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:18) Roman Josi: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:29) Steven Stamkos: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:45) Sam Steel: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:00) Ilya Lyubushkin: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:24) Tyson Jost: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:33) Thomas Harley: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:16) Nathan Bastian: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:07) Brady Skjei: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:25) Jason Robertson: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:31) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 17:39) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:22) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:59) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:19) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:20) Steven Stamkos: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:52) Steven Stamkos: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.38 (P3 2:02) Jonathan Marchessault: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:02) Mavrik Bourque: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 3:18) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:07) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:15) Nicolas Hague: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:45) Erik Haula: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:08) Thomas Harley: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:28) Ilya Lyubushkin: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:24) Nathan Bastian: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:59) Ilya Lyubushkin: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:09) Filip Forsberg: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:02) Roman Josi: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:06) Nicolas Hague: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:59) Nicolas Hague: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:02) Nick Blankenburg: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:31) Thomas Harley: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:16) Nick Perbix: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:56) Brady Skjei: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 17:03) Arttu Hyry: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:55) Jamie Benn: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:05) Filip Forsberg: poke, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:34) Ryan O'Reilly: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 0:34) Brady Skjei: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 1:00) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.18 (OT 1:43) Michael Bunting: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:26) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, snap, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:35) Wyatt Johnston: GOAL, snap, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 16:18) Nathan Bastian: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.40 (P3 5:31) Jason Robertson: GOAL, snap, 7 ft, xG 0.40 (OT 1:47)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 000 +1 20.16 0222:02
91 Steven Stamkos 101 0 50.67 3120:26
9 Filip Forsberg 000 -1 70.17 2018:50
56 Erik Haula 000 -2 20.03 1117:26
77 Luke Evangelista 022 +1 20.00 0017:20
47 Michael McCarron 000 0 00.00 4315:59
81 Jonathan Marchessault 000 0 30.88 1015:17
22 Cole Smith 000 0 10.00 5014:09
58 Michael Bunting 101 -1 20.15 0013:52
71 Matthew Wood 011 0 10.00 0011:17
68 Zachary L'Heureux 000 0 10.00 4009:11
17 Tyson Jost 000 0 50.05 0209:08
Defense
59 Roman Josi 000 0 40.25 1129:09
76 Brady Skjei 000 -2 30.30 3223:57
41 Nicolas Hague 000 0 40.09 2220:01
48 Nick Perbix 000 0 30.10 0119:23
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 0 20.01 0118:05
2 Adam Wilsby 000 +1 10.02 0005:48
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 25322 .880 3.30 +0.30

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
21 Jason Robertson 112 +1 50.61 0123:05
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 0 50.27 2021:45
53 Wyatt Johnston 112 +1 71.00 0121:44
95 Matt Duchene 000 -1 20.05 0019:23
18 Sam Steel 000 -1 10.06 2018:43
14 Jamie Benn 011 -1 20.05 2015:41
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 +1 10.08 1012:30
15 Colin Blackwell 000 0 10.00 1010:41
10 Oskar Bäck 000 0 00.00 1109:57
25 Arttu Hyry 000 0 10.03 1009:37
11 Nathan Bastian 101 +1 50.58 4008:33
73 Adam Erne 000 +1 20.10 1108:12
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 011 +1 50.12 0325:36
23 Esa Lindell 000 0 10.04 0224:24
55 Thomas Harley 011 0 120.22 1223:22
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 +1 20.03 0016:26
6 Lian Bichsel 000 -1 10.00 4015:33
46 Ilya Lyubushkin 000 0 50.06 0214:26
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 27225 .926 2.88 +0.88

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 Steven Stamkos C +1.56 +0.75 +0.44 +0.35 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 20:26
77 Luke Evangelista R +1.20 +1.25 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:20
81 Jonathan Marchessault R +0.50 0.00 +0.57 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:17
71 Matthew Wood R +0.49 +0.70 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:17
74 Juuse Saros G +0.30 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.30 61:39
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +0.24 0.00 +0.10 +0.13 -0.15 +0.06 +0.10 — 22:02
83 Adam Wilsby D +0.22 0.00 +0.01 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 5:48
17 Tyson Jost C +0.13 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 9:08
58 Michael Bunting L +0.13 +0.75 +0.10 -0.81 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 13:52
37 Nick Blankenburg D -0.02 0.00 +0.01 -0.21 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 18:05
41 Nicolas Hague D -0.29 0.00 +0.06 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 20:01
59 Roman Josi D -0.32 0.00 +0.16 -0.37 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 29:09
68 Zachary L'Heureux L -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:11
48 Nick Perbix D -0.42 0.00 +0.07 -0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:23
36 Cole Smith R -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.44 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:09
47 Michael McCarron C -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.70 0.00 +0.05 +0.15 — 15:59
9 Filip Forsberg L -0.67 0.00 +0.11 -0.80 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:50
56 Erik Haula L -0.68 0.00 +0.02 -0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:26
76 Brady Skjei D -0.76 0.00 +0.19 -1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 23:57

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
53 Wyatt Johnston C +2.44 +1.30 +0.65 +0.39 +0.15 -0.08 +0.03 — 21:44
21 Jason Robertson L +2.00 +1.30 +0.40 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:05
11 Nathan Bastian R +1.96 +0.75 +0.38 +0.87 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 8:33
55 Thomas Harley D +1.43 +0.70 +0.14 +0.78 -0.30 0.00 +0.10 — 23:22
5 Nils Lundkvist D +1.13 0.00 +0.02 +1.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:26
29 Jake Oettinger G +0.88 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.88 61:37
4 Miro Heiskanen D +0.86 +0.70 +0.08 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 25:36
73 Adam Erne L +0.83 0.00 +0.06 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 8:12
49 Justin Hryckowian C +0.70 0.00 +0.05 +0.70 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 12:30
22 Mavrik Bourque C +0.67 0.00 +0.18 +0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:45
14 Jamie Benn L +0.60 +0.70 +0.03 -0.11 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:41
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D +0.40 0.00 +0.04 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 14:26
10 Oskar Bäck C +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.19 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 9:57
23 Esa Lindell D +0.28 0.00 +0.03 +0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:24
25 Arttu Hyry R +0.23 0.00 +0.02 +0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:37
18 Sam Steel C +0.22 0.00 +0.04 +0.03 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:43
6 Lian Bichsel D +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:33
15 Colin Blackwell C -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 10:41
95 Matt Duchene C -0.13 0.00 +0.04 -0.03 -0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 19:23

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.