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New York IslandersNYI 1–5 Final Anaheim DucksANA

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
New York IslandersNYI 100 1 43
Anaheim DucksANA 302 5 26
Playoff odds, % Change
NYI -4.1
ANA +2.8
CBJ +0.9
SJS -0.7
VGK -0.7
BOS +0.6
WSH +0.6
DET +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 4, 2026 9:39 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:58 NYI Anders Lee (15)PP Tony DeAngelo (25), Jonathan Drouin (18) · snap xG 0.09 1–0 ▶
12:56 ANA Cutter Gauthier (30)PP Beckett Sennecke (31), Chris Kreider (14) · snap xG 0.13 1–1 ▶
16:05 ANA Cutter Gauthier (31) Leo Carlsson (30), Chris Kreider (15) · snap xG 0.14 1–2 ▶
18:40 ANA Beckett Sennecke (20) Mason McTavish (19), Ian Moore (8) · snap xG 0.38 1–3 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
2:11 ANA Ryan Poehling (7) Ryan Strome (6) · backhand xG 0.18 1–4 ▶
15:49 ANA Frank Vatrano (4)EN Jacob Trouba (18) · wrist xG 0.66 1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 59%Deserve to win41% ANA
NYIANA
3.48Expected goals4.12
1Goals (no shootout)5
1.87Expected goals, 5 on 52.56
76Shot attempts62
62Unblocked attempts45
43Shots on goal26

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
11:28 ANA Goalie Goalie · Husso +2.0 goals saved
1 goal on 3.02 xG, 35 shots on goal

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ ANA shoots
Leo Carlsson: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 0:14) Ondrej Palat: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:24) Mason McTavish: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:47) Adam Pelech: snap, 164 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:17) Bo Horvat: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 1:40) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:47) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:34) Calum Ritchie: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:35) Emil Heineman: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:47) Anders Lee: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:57) Beckett Sennecke: snap, 4 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 6:43) Bo Horvat: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:11) Matthew Schaefer: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:21) Scott Mayfield: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:24) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:33) Leo Carlsson: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 9:11) Chris Kreider: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:12) Beckett Sennecke: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 9:47) Olen Zellweger: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:50) Tim Washe: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 10:42) Anders Lee: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:11) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:16) Anders Lee: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 11:18) Anders Lee: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:19) Anders Lee: poke, 3 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:20) Simon Holmstrom: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:27) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:28) Adam Pelech: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:33) Jacob Trouba: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:10) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:20) Jonathan Drouin: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:24) Ian Moore: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:12) Frank Vatrano: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:17) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:38) Bo Horvat: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:56) Jonathan Drouin: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:32) Adam Pelech: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:39) Mason McTavish: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 18:38) Frank Vatrano: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:52) Simon Holmstrom: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:02) Mathew Barzal: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:18) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:02) Leo Carlsson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:40) Leo Carlsson: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:12) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:15) Ryan Poehling: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:44) Cutter Gauthier: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:25) Beckett Sennecke: bat, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:43) Ian Moore: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:30) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 13:01) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:19) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:40) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:48) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:37) Adam Boqvist: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:23) Scott Mayfield: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:32) Casey Cizikas: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:37) Kyle MacLean: bat, 24 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:39) Kyle MacLean: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:40) Marc Gatcomb: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:49) Alex Killorn: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:20) Ondrej Palat: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 17:41) Ondrej Palat: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:42) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:20) Emil Heineman: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:26) Bo Horvat: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:29) Ian Moore: wrist, 184 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:38) Ian Moore: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:11) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:50) Carson Soucy: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:40) Radko Gudas: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:22) Pavel Mintyukov: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:03) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:58) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:04) Frank Vatrano: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:11) Radko Gudas: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 7:20) Beckett Sennecke: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:00) Bo Horvat: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 9:24) Jacob Trouba: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:15) Pavel Mintyukov: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:22) Ryan Poehling: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:07) Mathew Barzal: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:28) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:42) Cutter Gauthier: backhand, 126 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 12:00) Calum Ritchie: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:49) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:14) Simon Holmstrom: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:57) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 14:16) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:43) Anders Lee: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:44) Frank Vatrano: wrist, 109 ft, xG 0.45 (P3 15:21) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:59) Jacob Trouba: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:06) Olen Zellweger: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:39) Ross Johnston: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:43) Alex Killorn: tip-in, 94 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:03) Kyle MacLean: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:32) Kyle MacLean: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:33) Jonathan Drouin: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:52) Cutter Gauthier: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:13) Ryan Poehling: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:20) Anders Lee: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 4:58) Cutter Gauthier: GOAL, snap, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 12:56) Cutter Gauthier: GOAL, snap, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:05) Beckett Sennecke: GOAL, snap, 11 ft, xG 0.38 (P1 18:40) Ryan Poehling: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 2:11) Frank Vatrano: GOAL, wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.66 (P3 15:49)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Bo Horvat 000 -1 50.56 3122:33
13 Mathew Barzal 000 -2 60.19 0020:58
92 Simon Holmstrom 000 -2 70.52 0019:28
81 Ondrej Palat 000 -2 40.22 2116:08
64 Calum Ritchie 000 -2 20.06 0115:41
51 Emil Heineman 000 -1 30.14 2015:03
72 Anders Lee 101 -2 90.57 0115:02
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 50.29 1214:33
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 000 -1 10.03 0114:18
92 Jonathan Drouin 011 -1 30.23 1113:25
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 0 10.04 4011:11
32 Kyle MacLean 000 0 40.20 1110:33
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 000 -2 70.14 0224:13
3 Adam Pelech 000 0 30.03 0022:11
77 Tony DeAngelo 011 -1 70.17 1418:51
24 Scott Mayfield 000 -2 50.04 1015:16
7 Carson Soucy 000 -1 30.01 2114:48
34 Adam Boqvist 000 -1 10.05 1013:40
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
David Rittich 25421 .840 2.93 -1.07

Anaheim Ducks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
61 Cutter Gauthier 202 +1 80.49 1118:02
91 Leo Carlsson 011 +1 60.33 0017:08
22 Chris Kreider 022 0 10.03 0016:38
25 Ryan Poehling 101 +1 60.43 0115:33
45 Beckett Sennecke 112 +1 50.81 5115:06
22 Ryan Strome 011 +2 00.00 0115:01
17 Alex Killorn 000 +1 20.10 0014:53
83 Mason McTavish 011 +2 30.21 1014:06
77 Frank Vatrano 101 +2 51.17 0013:50
42 Tim Washe 000 0 20.12 2012:34
49 Ross Johnston 000 +1 20.08 7011:10
25 Jeffrey Viel 000 0 10.00 7109:55
Defense
65 Jacob Trouba 011 +2 40.05 2123:19
8 Olen Zellweger 000 +2 30.05 0020:36
98 Pavel Mintyukov 000 +1 30.09 0220:06
6 Radko Gudas 000 +1 40.14 1419:56
2 Jackson LaCombe 000 +1 10.00 1119:22
3 Ian Moore 011 +1 60.03 1016:10
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ville Husso 43142 .977 3.48 +2.48

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
77 Tony DeAngelo D +0.71 +0.70 +0.11 -0.12 -0.15 0.00 +0.18 — 18:51
27 Anders Lee L +0.62 +0.75 +0.37 -0.51 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 15:02
81 Ondrej Palat L +0.42 0.00 +0.14 -0.07 +0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 16:08
53 Casey Cizikas C +0.35 0.00 +0.19 +0.24 -0.15 -0.03 +0.10 — 14:33
32 Kyle MacLean C +0.27 0.00 +0.13 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 10:33
29 Jonathan Drouin L +0.19 +0.55 +0.15 -0.72 +0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 13:25
14 Bo Horvat C +0.15 0.00 +0.36 -0.28 0.00 +0.04 +0.03 — 22:33
48 Matthew Schaefer D +0.07 0.00 +0.09 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 +0.12 — 24:13
16 Marc Gatcomb C +0.05 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:11
3 Adam Pelech D -0.13 0.00 +0.02 -0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:11
51 Emil Heineman L -0.27 0.00 +0.09 -0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:03
24 Scott Mayfield D -0.28 0.00 +0.02 -0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:16
13 Mathew Barzal C -0.35 0.00 +0.13 -0.29 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 20:58
10 Simon Holmstrom R -0.36 0.00 +0.34 -0.64 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 19:28
64 Calum Ritchie C -0.43 0.00 +0.04 -0.48 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 15:41
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -0.52 0.00 +0.02 -0.64 0.00 +0.05 +0.05 — 14:18
34 Adam Boqvist D -0.58 0.00 +0.03 -0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:40
33 David Rittich G -1.07 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.07 55:26
4 Carson Soucy D -1.24 0.00 0.00 -1.24 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 14:48

Anaheim Ducks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
45 Beckett Sennecke R +2.73 +1.45 +0.53 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:06
33 Ville Husso G +2.48 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.48 59:04
61 Cutter Gauthier L +2.15 +1.50 +0.32 +0.41 -0.15 +0.03 +0.05 — 18:02
74 Ian Moore D +1.74 +0.55 +0.02 +1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:10
25 Ryan Poehling C +1.74 +0.75 +0.28 +0.55 +0.15 -0.04 +0.05 — 15:33
77 Frank Vatrano R +1.60 +0.75 +0.76 +0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:50
23 Mason McTavish C +1.44 +0.70 +0.14 +0.77 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 14:06
51 Olen Zellweger D +1.43 0.00 +0.03 +1.25 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 20:36
20 Chris Kreider L +1.10 +1.10 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:38
91 Leo Carlsson C +1.02 +0.70 +0.21 +0.14 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 17:08
17 Alex Killorn L +0.98 0.00 +0.06 +0.74 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 14:53
16 Ryan Strome C +0.88 +0.70 0.00 +0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 15:01
7 Radko Gudas D +0.85 0.00 +0.09 +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 19:56
98 Pavel Mintyukov D +0.54 0.00 +0.06 +0.60 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 20:06
44 Ross Johnston L +0.34 0.00 +0.05 +0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:10
65 Jacob Trouba D +0.25 +0.70 +0.03 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 23:19
42 Tim Washe C -0.04 0.00 +0.08 -0.16 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 — 12:34
28 Jeffrey Viel L -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 9:55
2 Jackson LaCombe D -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 19:22

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.