St. Louis BluesSTL 3–2 Final Seattle KrakenSEA

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL	1	1	1	3	27
Seattle KrakenSEA	1	0	1	2	36

Playoff odds, %	Change
SEA	-6.8
STL	+0.1
SJS	+1.2
LAK	+1.2
EDM	+1.2
VGK	+1.0
NSH	+0.8
UTA	+0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 4, 2026 9:39 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:31	SEA	Jaden Schwartz (10) Adam Larsson (14), Vince Dunn (27) · snap xG 0.29	0–1 ▶
6:50	STL	Logan Mailloux (3) Brayden Schenn (14), Robert Thomas (24) · wrap-around xG 0.38	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
7:40	STL	Dylan Holloway (12) Cam Fowler (18), Brayden Schenn (15) · tip-in xG 0.36	2–1 ▶
3rd Period
1:33	STL	Robert Thomas (13) Brayden Schenn (16), Philip Broberg (17) · wrist xG 0.14	3–1 ▶
13:34	SEA	Vince Dunn (10) Jordan Eberle (20), Jared McCann (17) · snap xG 0.20	3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 41%Deserve to win59% SEA

STL		SEA
2.98	Expected goals	3.54
3	Goals (no shootout)	2
1.77	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.31
50	Shot attempts	67
36	Unblocked attempts	54
27	Shots on goal	36

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
14:50	STL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · STL takes the lead, 76–24% SEA had led since 0:31 of the 1st, by as much as 69%
14:50	STL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced SEA 1.54–0.05 In xG over 10 minutes, 6:30 to 16:30 of the 1st; goals 1–0
3rd Period
18:16	SEA	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Grubauer, down 3–2 With 1:44 left
19:40	SEA	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.20–0.01 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:40 to 19:40 of the 3rd; goals 1–0

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SEA shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
18	Robert Thomas	1	1	2	0	4	0.83	0	1	16:53
89	Pavel Buchnevich	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	16:49
81	Dylan Holloway	1	0	1	+1	6	0.56	1	0	16:12
22	Pius Suter	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	0	15:08
15	Dalibor Dvorsky	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	14:27
25	Jordan Kyrou	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	0	1	14:26
10	Brayden Schenn	0	3	3	+2	4	0.26	2	2	14:24
21	Jimmy Snuggerud	0	0	0	0	3	0.16	1	2	14:21
63	Jake Neighbours	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	13:58
13	Alexey Toropchenko	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	2	1	13:02
70	Oskar Sundqvist	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	2	1	12:48
37	Jack Finley	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	2	0	12:03
Defense
6	Philip Broberg	0	1	1	-1	5	0.05	1	0	26:19
23	Logan Mailloux	1	0	1	+1	7	0.62	1	0	22:52
72	Justin Faulk	0	0	0	0	4	0.07	1	1	22:45
17	Cam Fowler	0	1	1	+2	3	0.04	0	0	20:44
4	Matthew Kessel	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	3	2	13:10
75	Tyler Tucker	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	2	0	11:39

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Joel Hofer	36	2	34	.944	3.54	+1.54

Seattle Kraken

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
10	Matty Beniers	0	0	0	0	7	0.23	0	3	19:19
9	Chandler Stephenson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	0	1	17:51
19	Jared McCann	0	1	1	+1	8	0.47	2	0	17:43
7	Jordan Eberle	0	1	1	+1	5	0.67	0	0	17:29
17	Eeli Tolvanen	0	0	0	-1	4	0.17	2	0	16:45
89	Frederick Gaudreau	0	0	0	-1	2	0.33	0	2	15:18
71	Jaden Schwartz	1	0	1	-1	2	0.41	1	1	14:49
59	Ben Meyers	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	1	1	14:00
84	Kaapo Kakko	0	0	0	0	6	0.21	0	1	13:04
51	Shane Wright	0	0	0	0	3	0.13	1	1	12:36
27	Berkly Catton	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	0	0	12:20
63	Jacob Melanson	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	8	0	11:02
Defense
62	Brandon Montour	0	0	0	-1	8	0.25	1	0	26:10
29	Vince Dunn	1	1	2	+2	4	0.26	0	0	20:12
6	Adam Larsson	0	1	1	+2	3	0.06	1	2	19:47
4	Jamie Oleksiak	0	0	0	0	4	0.05	3	1	19:09
41	Ryker Evans	0	0	0	-3	3	0.02	0	0	16:36
55	Ryan Lindgren	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	0	0	13:46

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Philipp Grubauer	27	3	24	.889	2.98	-0.02

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
10 Brayden Schenn C	+2.77	+1.95	+0.17	+0.57	0.00	-0.02	+0.10	—	14:24
18 Robert Thomas C	+2.06	+1.30	+0.54	+0.15	0.00	+0.04	+0.03	—	16:53
23 Logan Mailloux D	+1.94	+0.75	+0.41	+0.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	22:52
30 Joel Hofer G	+1.69	0.00	—	—	+0.15	—	—	+1.54	60:00
17 Cam Fowler D	+1.57	+0.70	+0.02	+0.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:44
81 Dylan Holloway L	+0.99	+0.75	+0.37	-0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:12
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R	+0.47	0.00	+0.11	+0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	14:21
37 Jack Finley C	-0.04	0.00	+0.09	-0.13	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	12:03
51 Matthew Kessel D	-0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.30	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	13:10
70 Oskar Sundqvist C	-0.08	0.00	+0.04	-0.13	0.00	-0.02	+0.03	—	12:48
13 Alexey Toropchenko R	-0.16	0.00	+0.06	-0.13	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	13:02
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R	-0.19	0.00	0.00	-0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:27
25 Jordan Kyrou R	-0.31	0.00	+0.03	-0.40	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	14:26
75 Tyler Tucker D	-0.31	0.00	0.00	-0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:39
22 Pius Suter C	-0.46	0.00	+0.03	-0.32	-0.15	+0.02	-0.04	—	15:08
6 Philip Broberg D	-0.55	+0.55	+0.03	-1.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	26:19
89 Pavel Buchnevich L	-0.66	0.00	0.00	-0.51	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:49
63 Jake Neighbours L	-0.79	0.00	0.00	-0.82	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	13:58
72 Justin Faulk D	-1.19	0.00	+0.05	-1.08	-0.15	0.00	-0.01	—	22:45

Seattle Kraken

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
29 Vince Dunn D	+2.63	+1.30	+0.17	+1.13	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	20:12
7 Jordan Eberle R	+2.03	+0.70	+0.44	+0.91	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:29
6 Adam Larsson D	+1.91	+0.70	+0.04	+1.12	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	19:47
19 Jared McCann L	+1.83	+0.55	+0.30	+0.84	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	17:43
10 Matty Beniers C	+1.19	0.00	+0.15	+0.92	0.00	-0.03	+0.15	—	19:19
24 Jamie Oleksiak D	+0.86	0.00	+0.03	+0.76	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	19:09
62 Brandon Montour D	+0.72	0.00	+0.16	+0.58	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	26:10
51 Shane Wright C	+0.67	0.00	+0.09	+0.49	0.00	+0.05	+0.05	—	12:36
84 Kaapo Kakko R	+0.61	0.00	+0.14	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:04
89 Frederick Gaudreau C	+0.43	0.00	+0.22	+0.18	0.00	-0.07	+0.10	—	15:18
27 Berkly Catton C	+0.28	0.00	+0.07	+0.36	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	12:20
63 Jacob Melanson R	+0.27	0.00	+0.08	+0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:02
59 Ben Meyers C	+0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.20	0.00	+0.04	+0.03	—	14:00
17 Jaden Schwartz L	+0.27	+0.75	+0.27	-0.80	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:49
31 Philipp Grubauer G	-0.02	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.02	58:04
9 Chandler Stephenson C	-0.78	0.00	+0.02	-1.01	+0.15	+0.01	+0.05	—	17:51
20 Eeli Tolvanen R	-0.87	0.00	+0.11	-0.83	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:45
55 Ryan Lindgren D	-1.14	0.00	0.00	-1.29	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:46
41 Ryker Evans D	-1.29	0.00	+0.01	-1.24	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	16:36

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.