Florida PanthersFLA 3–1 Final Detroit Red WingsDET

Friday, March 6, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Florida PanthersFLA	1	0	2	3	23
Detroit Red WingsDET	0	1	0	1	29

Playoff odds, %	Change
DET	-5.6
FLA	+0.3
OTT	+1.3
BOS	+1.2
NYI	+0.7
CBJ	+0.7
SJS	+0.5
LAK	-0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 6, 2026 6:16 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:06	FLA	Matthew Tkachuk (6) Carter Verhaeghe (27) · snap xG 0.18	1–0 ▶
2nd Period
10:56	DET	Alex DeBrincat (33)PP Patrick Kane (25), Dylan Larkin (27) · bat xG 0.38	1–1 ▶
3rd Period
0:35	FLA	Matthew Tkachuk (7)PP Sam Reinhart (31), Brad Marchand (27) · tip-in xG 0.24	2–1 ▶
18:08	FLA	Matthew Tkachuk (8)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.37	3–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 16%Deserve to win84% DET

FLA		DET
2.66	Expected goals	4.67
3	Goals (no shootout)	1
1.47	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.08
46	Shot attempts	69
35	Unblocked attempts	51
23	Shots on goal	29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
11:20	DET	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.64–0.04 In xG over 10 minutes, 6:10 to 16:10 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
1:06	FLA	Goalie	Goalie · Bobrovsky +2.1 goals saved 1 goal on 3.07 xG, 19 shots on goal
7:40	DET	No shift	No shift · van Riemsdyk, 14:36 on the bench No shift from 13:45 of the 2nd to 12:10 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (6:16) before that
9:00	DET	No shift	No shift · Shine, 18:21 on the bench No shift after 13:46 of the 2nd; 6 shifts (4:27) before that
13:10	DET	No shift	No shift · Rasmussen, 12:50 on the bench No shift from 1:55 to 19:11 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (7:37) before that
18:00	DET	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Gibson, down 2–1 With 2:00 left; FLA scored at 18:08 of the 3rd (3–1)

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
19	Matthew Tkachuk	3	0	3	+2	5	0.81	1	1	19:35
13	Sam Reinhart	0	1	1	0	2	0.13	0	0	19:32
17	Evan Rodrigues	0	0	0	0	3	0.34	0	0	19:31
15	Anton Lundell	0	0	0	0	5	0.20	2	0	19:30
9	Sam Bennett	0	0	0	+2	6	0.22	1	0	18:45
23	Carter Verhaeghe	0	1	1	+2	3	0.33	0	0	17:19
92	Tomas Nosek	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	5	2	12:08
63	Brad Marchand	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	0	0	11:53
27	Eetu Luostarinen	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	11:37
18	A.J. Greer	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	09:57
11	Mackie Samoskevich	0	0	0	0	4	0.41	1	0	09:44
70	Jesper Boqvist	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	3	1	08:35
Defense
5	Aaron Ekblad	0	0	0	+2	2	0.00	1	3	25:37
42	Gustav Forsling	0	0	0	+2	1	0.01	0	3	23:04
77	Niko Mikkola	0	0	0	0	6	0.10	4	3	22:54
26	Uvis Balinskis	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	16:51
7	Dmitry Kulikov	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	15:12
73	Donovan Sebrango	0	0	0	0	4	0.08	3	1	11:18

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky	29	1	28	.966	4.67	+3.67

Detroit Red Wings

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
23	Lucas Raymond	0	0	0	0	9	0.44	1	0	21:31
93	Alex DeBrincat	1	0	1	-2	8	0.62	0	1	21:17
88	Patrick Kane	0	1	1	-2	7	0.68	0	1	20:32
18	Andrew Copp	0	0	0	0	4	0.24	0	2	20:26
71	Dylan Larkin	0	1	1	0	12	1.30	0	0	17:28
58	Emmitt Finnie	0	0	0	0	4	0.60	2	0	16:20
37	J.T. Compher	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	15:58
92	Marco Kasper	0	0	0	-1	3	0.06	0	1	14:31
22	Mason Appleton	0	0	0	0	2	0.21	1	0	11:15
21	James van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	0	0	09:15
27	Michael Rasmussen	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	2	0	07:43
65	Dominik Shine	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	04:27
Defense
53	Moritz Seider	0	0	0	0	5	0.18	0	0	24:37
77	Simon Edvinsson	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	1	1	20:28
20	Albert Johansson	0	0	0	-2	3	0.01	2	0	20:01
8	Ben Chiarot	0	0	0	-1	3	0.10	1	1	18:26
25	Jacob Bernard-Docker	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	3	17:10
44	Axel Sandin-Pellikka	0	0	0	0	3	0.10	0	0	14:56

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
John Gibson	22	2	20	.909	2.28	+0.28

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G	+3.67	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+3.67	60:00
19 Matthew Tkachuk L	+2.85	+2.25	+0.52	+0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	19:35
70 Jesper Boqvist C	+0.46	0.00	0.00	+0.27	+0.15	-0.01	+0.05	—	8:35
7 Dmitry Kulikov D	+0.39	0.00	0.00	+0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:12
11 Mackie Samoskevich R	+0.31	0.00	+0.27	+0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:44
6 Donovan Sebrango D	+0.28	0.00	+0.05	+0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:18
13 Sam Reinhart C	+0.14	+0.70	+0.08	-0.63	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:32
92 Tomas Nosek L	+0.13	0.00	+0.01	+0.09	0.00	-0.07	+0.10	—	12:08
23 Carter Verhaeghe C	+0.11	+0.70	+0.21	-0.63	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	17:19
17 Evan Rodrigues C	0.00	0.00	+0.22	-0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:31
15 Anton Lundell C	-0.04	0.00	+0.13	-0.01	-0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	19:30
5 Aaron Ekblad D	-0.41	0.00	0.00	-0.55	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	25:37
42 Gustav Forsling D	-0.52	0.00	+0.01	-0.53	-0.15	0.00	+0.15	—	23:04
10 A.J. Greer L	-0.73	0.00	0.00	-0.74	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	9:57
27 Eetu Luostarinen C	-0.80	0.00	0.00	-0.83	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	11:37
9 Sam Bennett C	-0.81	0.00	+0.15	-0.86	0.00	-0.06	-0.04	—	18:45
63 Brad Marchand L	-0.88	+0.55	0.00	-1.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:53
77 Niko Mikkola D	-1.04	0.00	+0.07	-1.36	+0.15	0.00	+0.11	—	22:54
26 Uvis Balinskis D	-1.11	0.00	0.00	-1.31	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	16:51

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
71 Dylan Larkin C	+2.75	+0.55	+0.85	+1.14	+0.15	+0.06	0.00	—	17:28
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	+1.62	0.00	+0.06	+1.57	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:56
88 Patrick Kane R	+1.47	+0.70	+0.44	+0.44	-0.15	+0.01	+0.03	—	20:32
93 Alex DeBrincat R	+1.35	+0.75	+0.40	+0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	21:17
20 Albert Johansson D	+1.33	0.00	+0.01	+1.26	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	20:01
37 J.T. Compher L	+1.29	0.00	0.00	+1.28	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	—	15:58
23 Lucas Raymond L	+1.24	0.00	+0.29	+1.00	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	21:31
92 Marco Kasper C	+0.72	0.00	+0.04	+0.66	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	14:31
58 Emmitt Finnie C	+0.61	0.00	+0.39	+0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:20
18 Andrew Copp C	+0.59	0.00	+0.16	+0.06	+0.15	+0.12	+0.10	—	20:26
53 Moritz Seider D	+0.56	0.00	+0.11	+0.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	24:37
36 John Gibson G	+0.28	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.28	58:05
22 Mason Appleton C	+0.24	0.00	+0.13	+0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:15
21 James van Riemsdyk L	+0.19	0.00	+0.06	+0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:15
77 Simon Edvinsson D	+0.12	0.00	+0.02	+0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	20:28
65 Dominik Shine R	+0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	4:27
8 Ben Chiarot D	+0.02	0.00	+0.06	-0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	18:26
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D	-0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.10	-0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	17:10
27 Michael Rasmussen C	-0.37	0.00	0.00	-0.36	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	7:43

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.