Carolina HurricanesCAR 6–3 Final Edmonton OilersEDM

Friday, March 6, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR	2	1	3	6	32
Edmonton OilersEDM	1	1	1	3	16

Playoff odds, %	Change
EDM	-6.7
CAR	+0.0
LAK	+1.2
SEA	+1.2
SJS	+1.2
NSH	+1.0
UTA	+0.7
VGK	+0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 6, 2026 8:21 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
10:43	EDM	Zach Hyman (26) Connor McDavid (71), Mattias Ekholm (27) · backhand xG 0.13	0–1 ▶
11:20	CAR	Shayne Gostisbehere (11) Seth Jarvis (23), Sebastian Aho (39) · slap xG 0.08	1–1 ▶
12:06	CAR	Nikolaj Ehlers (20) Unassisted · snap xG 0.01	2–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:37	CAR	Jordan Martinook (8) Nikolaj Ehlers (30), K'Andre Miller (22) · backhand xG 0.03	3–1 ▶
3:20	EDM	Vasily Podkolzin (14) Unassisted · snap xG 0.05	3–2 ▶
3rd Period
7:32	CAR	Jackson Blake (18) K'Andre Miller (23), Taylor Hall (20) · slap xG 0.13	4–2 ▶
11:43	EDM	Zach Hyman (27)PP Leon Draisaitl (58), Evan Bouchard (54) · snap xG 0.15	4–3 ▶
18:39	CAR	Jordan Staal (16)EN K'Andre Miller (24), Frederik Andersen (1) · backhand xG 0.88	5–3 ▶
19:31	CAR	Jackson Blake (19) Logan Stankoven (17), Sean Walker (14) · snap xG 0.09	6–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 62%Deserve to win38% EDM

CAR		EDM
3.68	Expected goals	2.15
6	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.75	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.96
68	Shot attempts	37
49	Unblocked attempts	27
32	Shots on goal	16

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
7:20	CAR	No shift	No shift · Gostisbehere, 35:18 on the bench No shift after 15:10 of the 1st; 5 shifts (4:01) before that
3rd Period
15:40	EDM	No shift	No shift · Henrique, 13:10 on the bench No shift after 19:48 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (7:09) before that
17:31	EDM	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Jarry, down 4–3 With 2:29 left; CAR scored at 18:39 of the 3rd (5–3)
19:31	EDM	Goalie	Goalie · Jarry −2.2 goals saved 5 goals on 2.80 xG, 31 shots on goal

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ EDM shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
20	Sebastian Aho	0	1	1	+2	5	0.13	1	0	21:06
24	Seth Jarvis	0	1	1	+1	2	0.21	1	0	20:08
37	Andrei Svechnikov	0	0	0	+1	5	0.10	1	0	18:43
71	Taylor Hall	0	1	1	+1	6	0.27	0	0	15:41
22	Logan Stankoven	0	1	1	+1	4	0.22	1	0	15:27
11	Jordan Staal	1	0	1	+3	2	0.93	0	0	15:24
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	1	1	2	+3	5	0.22	0	0	15:15
48	Jordan Martinook	1	0	1	+2	5	0.33	0	1	15:11
53	Jackson Blake	2	0	2	+1	4	0.23	0	1	14:02
28	William Carrier	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	2	0	11:01
50	Eric Robinson	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	0	2	10:33
77	Mark Jankowski	0	0	0	-1	1	0.15	0	1	10:28
Defense
5	Jalen Chatfield	0	0	0	+1	3	0.03	2	1	25:54
74	Jaccob Slavin	0	0	0	+3	6	0.23	0	0	25:25
19	K'Andre Miller	0	3	3	+2	2	0.00	2	0	22:33
26	Sean Walker	0	1	1	0	8	0.13	0	2	20:47
21	Alexander Nikishin	0	0	0	+1	4	0.22	4	0	16:11
4	Shayne Gostisbehere	1	0	1	+1	2	0.11	1	1	04:01

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Frederik Andersen	16	3	13	.813	2.15	-0.85

Edmonton Oilers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
97	Connor McDavid	0	1	1	0	3	0.27	1	1	23:32
29	Leon Draisaitl	0	1	1	-2	1	0.08	3	0	21:27
18	Zach Hyman	2	0	2	0	4	0.46	0	0	19:53
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	2	0	16:30
22	Matt Savoie	0	0	0	-2	3	0.00	0	2	16:12
96	Jack Roslovic	0	0	0	-2	1	0.08	1	2	14:38
42	Kasperi Kapanen	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	4	1	13:42
16	Jason Dickinson	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	2	1	12:43
92	Vasily Podkolzin	1	0	1	0	2	0.21	5	1	12:05
10	Trent Frederic	0	0	0	-3	1	0.27	3	0	09:43
34	Colton Dach	0	0	0	-3	3	0.14	2	0	09:32
19	Adam Henrique	0	0	0	-1	2	0.22	0	1	07:09
Defense
2	Evan Bouchard	0	1	1	0	2	0.16	1	2	24:19
5	Connor Murphy	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	1	3	20:32
96	Jake Walman	0	0	0	-3	1	0.01	1	2	20:30
14	Mattias Ekholm	0	1	1	0	6	0.13	0	1	20:23
25	Darnell Nurse	0	0	0	-1	3	0.04	0	0	18:55
49	Ty Emberson	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	1	13:23

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Tristan Jarry	31	5	26	.839	2.80	-2.20

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
11 Jordan Staal C	+2.07	+0.75	+0.60	+0.72	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:24
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L	+1.92	+1.45	+0.15	+0.34	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:15
48 Jordan Martinook L	+1.58	+0.75	+0.22	+0.56	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:11
19 K'Andre Miller D	+1.52	+1.95	0.00	-0.45	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	22:33
53 Jackson Blake R	+1.20	+1.50	+0.15	-0.47	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:02
26 Sean Walker D	+1.08	+0.55	+0.08	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	20:47
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D	+1.07	+0.75	+0.07	+0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	4:01
24 Seth Jarvis C	+0.96	+0.70	+0.13	-0.05	+0.15	-0.01	+0.04	—	20:08
21 Alexander Nikishin D	+0.77	0.00	+0.14	+0.61	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	16:11
71 Taylor Hall L	+0.61	+0.55	+0.17	+0.04	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	15:41
20 Sebastian Aho C	+0.55	+0.55	+0.08	+0.01	0.00	-0.03	-0.06	—	21:06
22 Logan Stankoven C	+0.33	+0.70	+0.14	-0.44	0.00	-0.05	-0.02	—	15:27
50 Eric Robinson L	+0.23	0.00	+0.10	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	10:33
37 Andrei Svechnikov R	+0.07	0.00	+0.06	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:43
77 Mark Jankowski L	-0.05	0.00	+0.09	-0.22	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	10:28
74 Jaccob Slavin D	-0.10	0.00	+0.15	-0.21	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	25:25
28 William Carrier L	-0.16	0.00	+0.02	-0.33	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	11:01
31 Frederik Andersen G	-0.30	+0.55	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.85	59:07
5 Jalen Chatfield D	-0.40	0.00	+0.02	-0.49	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	25:54

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
18 Zach Hyman L	+2.18	+1.50	+0.30	+0.54	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	19:53
14 Mattias Ekholm D	+1.64	+0.55	+0.08	+1.15	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	20:23
97 Connor McDavid C	+1.47	+0.70	+0.18	+0.42	+0.15	+0.01	+0.01	—	23:32
2 Evan Bouchard D	+1.36	+0.55	+0.11	+0.66	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	24:19
92 Vasily Podkolzin R	+0.97	+0.75	+0.14	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:05
29 Leon Draisaitl C	+0.96	+0.70	+0.05	+0.18	0.00	+0.05	-0.02	—	21:27
19 Adam Henrique C	+0.46	0.00	+0.15	+0.27	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	7:09
10 Trent Frederic C	+0.30	0.00	+0.18	+0.13	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	9:43
34 Colton Dach C	+0.29	0.00	+0.09	+0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:32
42 Kasperi Kapanen R	+0.27	0.00	+0.02	+0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	13:42
16 Jason Dickinson C	+0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:43
5 Connor Murphy D	-0.02	0.00	+0.01	-0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	20:32
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	-0.36	0.00	+0.01	-0.41	0.00	+0.04	0.00	—	16:30
96 Jake Walman D	-0.50	0.00	+0.01	-0.59	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	20:30
25 Darnell Nurse D	-0.53	0.00	+0.03	-0.54	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:55
49 Ty Emberson D	-0.61	0.00	0.00	-0.66	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:23
28 Jack Roslovic C	-0.79	0.00	+0.05	-0.91	0.00	-0.01	+0.08	—	14:38
22 Matt Savoie C	-0.90	0.00	0.00	-1.00	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	16:12
35 Tristan Jarry G	-2.20	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.20	58:52

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.