Calgary FlamesCGY 3–7 Final Washington CapitalsWSH

Monday, March 9, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Calgary FlamesCGY	0	3	0	3	26
Washington CapitalsWSH	3	0	4	7	29

Playoff odds, %	Change
WSH	+1.6
CGY	-0.1
NYI	-0.4
CBJ	-0.4
SEA	+0.3
OTT	-0.3

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 9, 2026 6:18 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:46	WSH	Hendrix Lapierre (3) Martin Fehérváry (17), Declan Chisholm (6) · snap xG 0.35	0–1 ▶
9:13	WSH	Tom Wilson (24) Aliaksei Protas (23), Dylan Strome (34) · snap xG 0.05	0–2 ▶
17:43	WSH	Connor McMichael (9) Justin Sourdif (15), Anthony Beauvillier (11) · snap xG 0.22	0–3 ▶
2nd Period
16:08	CGY	Matvei Gridin (4) Olli Maatta (3), Ryan Strome (8) · snap xG 0.11	1–3 ▶
17:39	CGY	Blake Coleman (15)SH Mikael Backlund (23), Yan Kuznetsov (7) · snap xG 0.18	2–3 ▶
18:55	CGY	Yegor Sharangovich (13)SH Joel Farabee (14) · snap xG 0.29	3–3 ▶
3rd Period
10:52	WSH	Connor McMichael (10)PP Unassisted · snap xG 0.15	3–4 ▶
11:15	WSH	Justin Sourdif (13) Unassisted · snap xG 0.06	3–5 ▶
17:14	WSH	Ethen Frank (12)EN Brandon Duhaime (3), Hendrix Lapierre (9) · snap xG 0.44	3–6 ▶
19:44	WSH	Ryan Leonard (12) Justin Sourdif (16) · backhand xG 0.23	3–7 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CGY 43%Deserve to win57% WSH

CGY		WSH
3.37	Expected goals	4.29
3	Goals (no shootout)	7
2.76	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.15
68	Shot attempts	57
45	Unblocked attempts	44
26	Shots on goal	29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
15:58	WSH	Goalie	Goalie · Thompson +2.4 goals saved 0 goals on 2.36 xG, 17 shots on goal
16:00	CGY	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.97–0.10 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:00 to 19:00 of the 2nd; goals 3–0
17:39	CGY	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · CGY takes the lead, 61–39% WSH had led since 2:46 of the 1st, by as much as 83%
3rd Period
16:37	CGY	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Cooley, down 5–3 With 3:23 left; WSH scored at 17:14 of the 3rd (3–6)
18:20	WSH	No shift	No shift · Chisholm, 10:41 on the bench No shift from 6:07 to 18:55 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (12:54) before that
19:44	CGY	Goalie	Goalie · Cooley −2.2 goals saved 6 goals on 3.84 xG, 28 shots on goal

Shot map

CGY shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WSH shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Calgary Flames

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
11	Mikael Backlund	0	1	1	0	3	0.16	0	0	18:26
20	Blake Coleman	1	0	1	0	8	0.64	2	2	18:19
86	Joel Farabee	0	1	1	0	1	0.01	0	1	17:53
95	Victor Olofsson	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	2	1	15:43
16	Morgan Frost	0	0	0	-1	2	0.15	1	0	15:25
17	Yegor Sharangovich	1	0	1	0	7	0.33	0	0	15:13
22	Ryan Strome	0	1	1	-2	3	0.48	0	0	14:06
47	Connor Zary	0	0	0	-1	5	0.35	0	0	13:33
27	Matt Coronato	0	0	0	-2	5	0.39	1	0	13:29
92	Matvei Gridin	1	0	1	-1	6	0.36	1	0	12:46
43	Adam Klapka	0	0	0	-2	3	0.06	1	0	11:21
94	Ryan Lomberg	0	0	0	-2	3	0.10	0	0	08:40
Defense
37	Yan Kuznetsov	0	1	1	-1	2	0.00	3	2	22:38
7	Kevin Bahl	0	0	0	-3	5	0.12	2	3	21:17
3	Olli Maatta	0	1	1	+1	3	0.14	0	1	20:22
19	Zayne Parekh	0	0	0	-1	5	0.04	0	0	19:04
44	Joel Hanley	0	0	0	-1	3	0.03	0	1	18:44
94	Brayden Pachal	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	2	2	18:08

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Devin Cooley	28	6	22	.786	3.84	-2.16

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
43	Tom Wilson	1	0	1	-2	6	0.21	1	2	18:12
8	Alex Ovechkin	0	0	0	-1	7	0.16	0	0	17:20
21	Aliaksei Protas	0	1	1	+1	3	0.12	2	0	17:20
34	Justin Sourdif	1	2	3	+3	4	0.26	0	0	17:09
17	Dylan Strome	0	1	1	-2	7	0.40	0	1	17:04
72	Anthony Beauvillier	0	1	1	+2	2	0.28	2	1	16:33
77	Connor McMichael	2	0	2	+1	5	0.58	0	2	14:53
80	Pierre-Luc Dubois	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	0	1	14:31
9	Ryan Leonard	1	0	1	-1	3	0.46	4	0	14:24
53	Ethen Frank	1	0	1	+2	5	0.74	0	1	14:18
22	Hendrix Lapierre	1	1	2	+2	5	0.60	1	0	11:57
24	Brandon Duhaime	0	1	1	+2	2	0.06	2	3	11:07
Defense
6	Jakob Chychrun	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	0	1	24:12
38	Rasmus Sandin	0	0	0	+3	2	0.18	3	3	20:10
3	Matt Roy	0	0	0	+1	1	0.08	0	2	19:34
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	1	1	+2	1	0.01	4	2	19:06
57	Trevor van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	2	18:11
47	Declan Chisholm	0	1	1	+2	1	0.00	0	1	13:59

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	26	3	23	.885	3.37	+0.37

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Calgary Flames

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
20 Blake Coleman L	+1.48	+0.75	+0.41	+0.24	0.00	-0.01	+0.08	—	18:19
92 Matvei Gridin R	+1.32	+0.75	+0.23	+0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:46
3 Olli Maatta D	+1.28	+0.70	+0.09	+0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	20:22
86 Joel Farabee L	+1.09	+0.70	+0.01	+0.32	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	17:53
47 Connor Zary C	+0.64	0.00	+0.23	+0.39	0.00	-0.01	+0.04	—	13:33
22 Ryan Strome C	+0.62	+0.55	+0.31	-0.20	0.00	-0.04	0.00	—	14:06
11 Mikael Backlund C	+0.48	+0.70	+0.10	-0.28	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	18:26
17 Yegor Sharangovich C	+0.18	+0.75	+0.21	-0.77	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	15:13
16 Morgan Frost C	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	+0.01	0.00	+0.04	0.00	—	15:25
94 Brayden Pachal D	+0.07	0.00	+0.01	-0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	18:08
37 Yan Kuznetsov D	-0.18	+0.55	0.00	-0.81	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:38
19 Zayne Parekh D	-0.45	0.00	+0.03	-0.15	-0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	19:04
44 Joel Hanley D	-0.53	0.00	+0.02	-0.57	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	18:44
95 Victor Olofsson L	-0.56	0.00	0.00	-0.59	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:43
43 Adam Klapka R	-0.58	0.00	+0.04	-0.60	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:21
27 Matt Coronato R	-0.71	0.00	+0.25	-0.96	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	13:30
70 Ryan Lomberg L	-0.79	0.00	+0.07	-0.83	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	8:39
7 Kevin Bahl D	-1.08	0.00	+0.08	-1.14	-0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	21:17
1 Devin Cooley G	-2.16	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.16	59:23

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
34 Justin Sourdif C	+2.76	+2.15	+0.17	+0.44	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	17:09
24 Connor McMichael L	+2.72	+1.50	+0.37	+0.78	0.00	-0.01	+0.08	—	14:53
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	+2.33	+1.30	+0.39	+0.66	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	11:57
9 Ryan Leonard R	+2.17	+0.75	+0.30	+1.00	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	14:24
53 Ethen Frank R	+1.64	+0.75	+0.48	+0.23	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	14:18
22 Brandon Duhaime L	+1.48	+0.70	+0.04	+0.60	0.00	-0.01	+0.15	—	11:07
42 Martin Fehérváry D	+1.24	+0.70	+0.01	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	19:06
47 Declan Chisholm D	+1.13	+0.55	0.00	+0.57	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	13:59
72 Anthony Beauvillier R	+0.78	+0.55	+0.18	+0.01	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	16:33
38 Rasmus Sandin D	+0.76	0.00	+0.12	+0.49	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	20:10
21 Aliaksei Protas L	+0.61	+0.70	+0.08	-0.15	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:20
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois C	+0.55	0.00	+0.06	+0.45	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	14:31
8 Alex Ovechkin L	+0.50	0.00	+0.10	+0.25	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:20
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D	+0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	18:11
43 Tom Wilson R	+0.42	+0.75	+0.14	-0.51	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	18:12
17 Dylan Strome C	+0.41	+0.55	+0.26	-0.52	0.00	+0.09	+0.03	—	17:04
6 Jakob Chychrun D	+0.39	0.00	+0.03	+0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	24:12
48 Logan Thompson G	+0.37	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.37	60:00
3 Matt Roy D	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	-0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:34

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.