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San Jose SharksSJS 3–6 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
San Jose SharksSJS 111 3 20
Buffalo SabresBUF 222 6 26
Playoff odds, % Change
SJS -5.6
BUF +0.3
SEA +1.1
VGK +1.0
LAK +0.9
EDM +0.8
NSH +0.8
WPG +0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 10, 2026 6:10 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:12 BUF Jack Quinn (13) Jason Zucker (16), Ryan McLeod (34) · wrist xG 0.11 0–1 ▶
5:39 BUF Alex Tuch (28) Rasmus Dahlin (45), Mattias Samuelsson (24) · tip-in xG 0.08 0–2 ▶
12:54 SJS Macklin Celebrini (33) Will Smith (26) · wrist xG 0.17 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
4:59 BUF Beck Malenstyn (6) Peyton Krebs (21), Rasmus Dahlin (46) · wrist xG 0.14 1–3 ▶
8:51 BUF Jason Zucker (20) Jack Quinn (28), Owen Power (16) · backhand xG 0.40 1–4 ▶
19:29 SJS Kiefer Sherwood (20) Mario Ferraro (11), Alexander Wennberg (28) · snap xG 0.05 2–4 ▶
3rd Period
0:42 BUF Jack Quinn (14) Ryan McLeod (35), Rasmus Dahlin (47) · snap xG 0.10 2–5 ▶
6:56 SJS Alexander Wennberg (13)PP Tyler Toffoli (24) · backhand xG 0.22 3–5 ▶
17:14 BUF Jack Quinn (15)EN Ryan McLeod (36) · wrist xG 0.87 3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SJS 39%Deserve to win61% BUF
SJSBUF
2.30Expected goals3.80
3Goals (no shootout)6
1.55Expected goals, 5 on 52.93
53Shot attempts55
37Unblocked attempts39
20Shots on goal26

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
9:00 BUF xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced SJS 1.46–0.03
In xG over 10 minutes, 19:40 of the 1st to 9:40 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
0:42 SJS Goalie Goalie · Askarov −2.5 goals saved
5 goals on 2.53 xG, 21 shots on goal
16:17 SJS Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Askarov, down 5–3
With 3:43 left; BUF scored at 17:14 of the 3rd (3–6)

Shot map

SJS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Logan Stanley: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:56) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:19) Tyler Toffoli: backhand, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:29) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:10) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:47) Alexander Wennberg: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:15) Zach Benson: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 5:45) Michael Kesselring: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:55) Shakir Mukhamadullin: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:47) William Eklund: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 8:38) Will Smith: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:07) Beck Malenstyn: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 9:57) Noah Ostlund: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:36) Alex Tuch: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 14:27) Owen Power: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 14:39) Jason Zucker: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:29) Sam Dickinson: backhand, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:46) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.31 (P1 18:45) John Klingberg: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:52) Collin Graf: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 19:08) Noah Ostlund: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:28) Owen Power: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 1:50) William Eklund: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:02) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:55) Josh Doan: deflected, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:29) Tage Thompson: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 6:12) Tage Thompson: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:13) Zach Benson: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 6:15) William Eklund: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:33) Peyton Krebs: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:54) Alexander Wennberg: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:07) Jack Quinn: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:49) Josh Doan: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:21) Josh Doan: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:22) Zach Benson: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:33) William Eklund: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:08) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:08) Jack Quinn: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:01) Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:43) Noah Ostlund: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:23) Alexander Wennberg: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:47) Tyler Toffoli: slap, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 14:54) Tyler Toffoli: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:27) Alex Tuch: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:56) Zack Ostapchuk: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:34) Adam Gaudette: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:52) Collin Graf: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 17:54) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:00) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:58) Tage Thompson: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:46) Noah Ostlund: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 3:40) Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:23) Michael Misa: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:01) Sam Carrick: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 5:51) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:32) Alexander Wennberg: deflected, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:38) Will Smith: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:55) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:01) Collin Graf: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:37) Sam Dickinson: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:57) Michael Misa: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:07) Peyton Krebs: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:28) Michael Kesselring: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:36) Noah Ostlund: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:41) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:19) Shakir Mukhamadullin: backhand, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:44) Barclay Goodrow: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:47) Jack Quinn: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:12) Alex Tuch: GOAL, tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:39) Macklin Celebrini: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 12:54) Beck Malenstyn: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 4:59) Jason Zucker: GOAL, backhand, 3 ft, xG 0.40 (P2 8:51) Kiefer Sherwood: GOAL, snap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:29) Jack Quinn: GOAL, snap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 0:42) Alexander Wennberg: GOAL, backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 6:56) Jack Quinn: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.87 (P3 17:14)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Macklin Celebrini 101 -1 30.17 0324:25
2 Will Smith 011 -1 30.10 0020:49
51 Collin Graf 000 0 40.29 1117:41
21 Alexander Wennberg 112 -4 50.43 0017:12
44 Kiefer Sherwood 101 -3 10.05 5016:29
27 William Eklund 000 -1 50.17 1116:29
73 Tyler Toffoli 011 -1 90.42 0015:38
77 Michael Misa 000 0 30.05 1014:06
96 Philipp Kurashev 000 -3 00.00 2012:29
81 Adam Gaudette 000 0 10.01 0210:55
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 0 10.01 3009:03
63 Zack Ostapchuk 000 0 10.10 2109:01
Defense
9 Dmitry Orlov 000 -3 40.34 0121:09
38 Mario Ferraro 011 0 10.00 1320:46
6 Sam Dickinson 000 -1 30.02 2019:31
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin 000 0 20.09 2117:59
3 John Klingberg 000 -2 40.03 2117:56
73 Vincent Desharnais 000 -1 30.01 1217:26
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Yaroslav Askarov 25520 .800 2.93 -2.07

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Ryan McLeod 033 +4 30.12 0017:02
72 Tage Thompson 000 0 40.29 1116:41
6 Zach Benson 000 0 40.26 3016:25
89 Alex Tuch 101 -1 30.25 0216:00
86 Noah Ostlund 000 0 70.23 0015:29
22 Jack Quinn 314 +4 71.12 1015:09
91 Josh Doan 000 -1 40.18 0115:07
9 Josh Norris 000 -1 10.00 0014:02
19 Peyton Krebs 011 +1 40.10 3213:58
10 Sam Carrick 000 +1 10.10 2213:33
17 Jason Zucker 112 +4 20.46 0112:56
29 Beck Malenstyn 101 +1 30.29 5011:31
Defense
25 Owen Power 011 +3 30.24 0122:49
23 Mattias Samuelsson 011 +1 20.00 1322:25
24 Bowen Byram 000 +1 00.00 3021:40
26 Rasmus Dahlin 033 +4 30.07 0020:07
8 Logan Stanley 000 0 20.03 1115:51
7 Michael Kesselring 000 -1 20.04 1015:09
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Lyon 20317 .850 2.30 -0.70

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
71 Macklin Celebrini C +0.94 +0.75 +0.11 +0.02 0.00 -0.09 +0.15 — 24:25
73 Tyler Toffoli C +0.94 +0.70 +0.28 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:38
2 Will Smith C +0.59 +0.70 +0.06 -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 20:49
72 William Eklund L +0.21 0.00 +0.11 +0.04 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 16:29
21 Alexander Wennberg C +0.14 +1.30 +0.28 -1.47 0.00 +0.05 -0.02 — 17:12
5 Vincent Desharnais D +0.07 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 17:26
38 Mario Ferraro D -0.04 +0.70 0.00 -0.89 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:46
63 Zack Ostapchuk C -0.07 0.00 +0.07 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 9:01
51 Collin Graf R -0.12 0.00 +0.19 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:41
81 Adam Gaudette R -0.14 0.00 +0.01 -0.28 0.00 +0.03 +0.10 — 10:55
6 Sam Dickinson D -0.17 0.00 +0.01 -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:31
77 Michael Misa C -0.32 0.00 +0.04 -0.35 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:06
23 Barclay Goodrow C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 9:03
9 Dmitry Orlov D -0.45 0.00 +0.22 -0.83 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 21:09
44 Kiefer Sherwood L -0.51 +0.75 +0.03 -1.55 +0.30 0.00 -0.04 — 16:29
3 John Klingberg D -0.79 0.00 +0.02 -0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:56
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D -0.98 0.00 +0.06 -1.08 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:59
96 Philipp Kurashev C -1.51 0.00 0.00 -1.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:29
30 Yaroslav Askarov G -2.07 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.07 58:56

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
22 Jack Quinn R +4.84 +2.95 +0.73 +1.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:09
71 Ryan McLeod C +3.35 +1.95 +0.08 +1.36 0.00 +0.04 -0.08 — 17:02
17 Jason Zucker L +3.01 +1.45 +0.30 +1.36 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 12:56
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +3.01 +1.80 +0.05 +1.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:07
25 Owen Power D +2.20 +0.55 +0.16 +1.44 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:49
29 Beck Malenstyn L +1.76 +0.75 +0.19 +0.68 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 11:31
4 Bowen Byram D +1.38 0.00 0.00 +1.36 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 21:40
89 Alex Tuch R +1.28 +0.75 +0.16 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 16:00
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +0.92 +0.55 0.00 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:25
6 Zach Benson L +0.76 0.00 +0.17 +0.68 -0.08 0.00 -0.02 — 16:25
72 Tage Thompson C +0.72 0.00 +0.19 +0.60 -0.08 -0.05 +0.05 — 16:41
86 Noah Ostlund C +0.63 0.00 +0.15 +0.49 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:29
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.49 +0.70 +0.07 -0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 13:58
10 Sam Carrick C +0.34 0.00 +0.07 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 13:33
9 Josh Norris C -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 +0.05 -0.02 — 14:02
64 Logan Stanley D -0.10 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 15:51
91 Josh Doan R -0.23 0.00 +0.12 -0.38 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 15:07
8 Michael Kesselring D -0.24 0.00 +0.02 -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:09
34 Alex Lyon G -0.70 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.70 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.