New York IslandersNYI 4–3 Final/OT St. Louis BluesSTL

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Final/OT	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T	SOG
New York IslandersNYI	0	1	2	1	4	49
St. Louis BluesSTL	1	2	0	0	3	23

Playoff odds, %	Change
NYI	+6.1
STL	-0.8
CBJ	-2.0
PIT	-0.8
WSH	-0.8
PHI	-0.6
BOS	-0.6
DET	-0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 10, 2026 7:12 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:06	STL	Philip Broberg (4) Jimmy Snuggerud (18), Robert Thomas (26) · tip-in xG 0.43	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
9:10	STL	Dylan Holloway (13) Cam Fowler (21), Jimmy Snuggerud (19) · wrist xG 0.06	0–2 ▶
10:37	STL	Jimmy Snuggerud (13) Robert Thomas (27), Theo Lindstein (1) · snap xG 0.21	0–3 ▶
17:50	NYI	Jean-Gabriel Pageau (15) Matthew Schaefer (27), Mathew Barzal (41) · wrist xG 0.30	1–3 ▶
3rd Period
5:52	NYI	Calum Ritchie (8)PP Unassisted · xG 0.94	2–3 ▶
6:52	NYI	Bo Horvat (28)PP Calum Ritchie (11), Mathew Barzal (42) · snap xG 0.23	3–3 ▶
Overtime
2:11	NYI	Mathew Barzal (18) Brayden Schenn (17), Tony DeAngelo (26) · wrist xG 0.17	4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 84%Deserve to win16% STL

NYI		STL
5.34	Expected goals	2.86
4	Goals (no shootout)	3
2.91	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.33
74	Shot attempts	45
62	Unblocked attempts	33
49	Shots on goal	23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
17:30	STL	No shift	No shift · Thomas, 12:55 on the bench No shift from 7:22 of the 1st to 2:18 of the 2nd; 4 shifts (2:48) before that
2nd Period
2:09	NYI	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · NYI takes the lead, 60–40% STL had led since 4:06 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
11:28	STL	Goalie	Goalie · Hofer +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.04 xG, 27 shots on goal
3rd Period
7:20	NYI	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced STL 2.45–0.52 In xG over 10 minutes, 17:30 of the 2nd to 7:30 of the 3rd; goals 3–0

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ STL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Bo Horvat	1	0	1	-1	10	0.83	0	0	21:53
13	Mathew Barzal	1	2	3	+1	5	0.25	0	0	21:21
92	Simon Holmstrom	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	1	0	18:41
44	Jean-Gabriel Pageau	1	0	1	+1	2	0.37	6	0	17:55
10	Brayden Schenn	0	1	1	0	6	0.40	2	0	17:06
72	Anders Lee	0	0	0	+1	10	0.55	1	0	16:28
51	Emil Heineman	0	0	0	-1	6	0.31	5	0	16:22
64	Calum Ritchie	1	1	2	-1	4	1.15	0	1	14:02
81	Ondrej Palat	0	0	0	-1	2	0.34	0	3	12:19
53	Casey Cizikas	0	0	0	-1	2	0.17	1	1	10:07
49	Maxim Shabanov	0	0	0	-1	3	0.18	0	0	10:07
17	Marc Gatcomb	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	5	1	09:25
Defense
48	Matthew Schaefer	0	1	1	+1	10	0.33	1	1	27:21
3	Adam Pelech	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	0	21:44
77	Tony DeAngelo	0	1	1	-1	2	0.02	0	4	19:41
6	Ryan Pulock	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	0	19:10
7	Carson Soucy	0	0	0	-1	5	0.18	1	0	15:19
24	Scott Mayfield	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	0	1	13:53

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Ilya Sorokin	23	3	20	.870	2.86	-0.14

St. Louis Blues

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
81	Dylan Holloway	1	0	1	+2	3	0.16	2	0	20:22
21	Jimmy Snuggerud	1	2	3	+2	10	0.79	3	0	19:46
89	Pavel Buchnevich	0	0	0	-1	3	0.17	1	1	19:04
18	Robert Thomas	0	2	2	+3	3	0.20	0	1	16:21
92	Jonathan Drouin	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	0	15:50
25	Jordan Kyrou	0	0	0	-1	3	0.13	0	0	15:02
22	Pius Suter	0	0	0	0	5	0.52	0	0	14:02
63	Jake Neighbours	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0	1	13:58
15	Dalibor Dvorsky	0	0	0	-1	1	0.11	0	0	13:27
28	Otto Stenberg	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	12:59
37	Jack Finley	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	3	0	10:51
13	Alexey Toropchenko	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	2	1	10:32
Defense
6	Philip Broberg	1	0	1	0	5	0.58	1	2	24:07
23	Logan Mailloux	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	1	23:39
55	Colton Parayko	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	3	2	21:45
17	Cam Fowler	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	1	20:25
75	Tyler Tucker	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	2	1	15:11
4	Theo Lindstein	0	1	1	+1	3	0.00	0	0	13:39

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Joel Hofer	49	4	46	.939	5.34	+1.34

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
48 Matthew Schaefer D	+2.67	+0.70	+0.22	+1.59	+0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	27:21
64 Calum Ritchie C	+2.36	+1.45	+0.75	-0.16	+0.30	0.00	+0.03	—	14:02
13 Mathew Barzal C	+2.07	+1.85	+0.16	+0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	21:21
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C	+1.94	+0.75	+0.24	+0.98	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	17:55
27 Anders Lee L	+1.51	0.00	+0.36	+1.18	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	16:28
14 Bo Horvat C	+1.17	+0.75	+0.54	-0.13	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	21:53
92 Simon Holmstrom R	+0.71	0.00	+0.11	+0.47	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	18:41
10 Brayden Schenn C	+0.62	+0.70	+0.26	-0.38	0.00	+0.04	0.00	—	17:06
81 Ondrej Palat L	+0.22	0.00	+0.22	-0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	12:19
6 Ryan Pulock D	+0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:10
4 Carson Soucy D	+0.06	0.00	+0.12	-0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:19
77 Tony DeAngelo D	0.00	+0.55	+0.01	-0.76	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	19:41
53 Casey Cizikas C	-0.02	0.00	+0.11	-0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	10:07
16 Marc Gatcomb C	-0.06	0.00	+0.05	-0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	9:25
3 Adam Pelech D	-0.07	0.00	+0.02	+0.04	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	21:44
51 Emil Heineman L	-0.12	0.00	+0.20	-0.31	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:22
30 Ilya Sorokin G	-0.14	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.14	61:50
49 Max Shabanov R	-0.15	0.00	+0.11	-0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:07
24 Scott Mayfield D	-0.21	0.00	0.00	-0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	13:53

St. Louis Blues

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R	+2.71	+2.00	+0.51	+0.41	-0.15	-0.02	-0.04	—	19:46
18 Robert Thomas C	+2.55	+1.25	+0.13	+1.15	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	16:21
6 Philip Broberg D	+1.37	+0.75	+0.38	+0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	24:07
30 Joel Hofer G	+1.34	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.34	61:55
81 Dylan Holloway L	+1.33	+0.75	+0.11	+0.32	+0.15	-0.02	+0.02	—	20:22
41 Theo Lindstein D	+0.42	+0.55	0.00	-0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:39
17 Cam Fowler D	+0.39	+0.70	0.00	-0.36	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:25
37 Jack Finley C	+0.18	0.00	+0.02	+0.12	0.00	+0.04	0.00	—	10:51
63 Jake Neighbours L	+0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	13:58
75 Tyler Tucker D	+0.13	0.00	+0.02	+0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:11
23 Logan Mailloux D	+0.06	0.00	+0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	23:39
13 Alexey Toropchenko R	-0.12	0.00	+0.06	-0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:32
25 Jordan Kyrou R	-0.12	0.00	+0.08	-0.07	-0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	15:02
28 Otto Stenberg C	-0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:59
55 Colton Parayko D	-0.36	0.00	+0.02	-0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	21:45
22 Pius Suter C	-0.39	0.00	+0.34	-0.72	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	14:02
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R	-0.48	0.00	+0.07	-0.52	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	13:27
89 Pavel Buchnevich L	-0.53	0.00	+0.11	-0.39	-0.30	-0.01	+0.05	—	19:04
92 Jonathan Drouin L	-0.97	0.00	0.00	-0.95	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.