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Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 1–2 Final Dallas StarsDAL

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 010 1 27
Dallas StarsDAL 020 2 16
Playoff odds, % Change
VGK -4.1
DAL +0.0
EDM +0.9
SJS +0.7
LAK +0.6
WPG +0.6
SEA +0.4
NSH +0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 10, 2026 7:12 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
1:31 VGK Jack Eichel (23) Shea Theodore (23), Ivan Barbashev (27) · snap xG 0.08 1–0 ▶
10:41 DAL Oskar Bäck (5) Colin Blackwell (7), Thomas Harley (23) · backhand xG 0.42 1–1 ▶
14:16 DAL Jamie Benn (12)PP Wyatt Johnston (34), Matt Duchene (18) · bat xG 0.27 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

VGK 36%Deserve to win64% DAL
VGKDAL
2.11Expected goals3.29
1Goals (no shootout)2
1.36Expected goals, 5 on 51.69
55Shot attempts39
37Unblocked attempts29
27Shots on goal16

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
14:20 DAL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced VGK 1.67–0.26
In xG over 10 minutes, 4:20 to 14:20 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
18:10 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hill, down 2–1
With 1:50 left

Shot map

VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots
Thomas Harley: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:53) Sam Steel: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:04) Jack Eichel: wrist, 90 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:54) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:56) Nils Lundkvist: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:06) Nils Lundkvist: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:20) Keegan Kolesar: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 10:46) Colin Blackwell: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 11:30) Jamie Benn: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 11:49) Jason Robertson: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:06) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:13) Colton Sissons: wrist, 80 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:48) Nic Dowd: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:54) Brayden McNabb: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:56) Brayden McNabb: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:51) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:38) Kaedan Korczak: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:27) Braeden Bowman: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:55) Jack Eichel: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:56) Brayden McNabb: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:15) Adam Erne: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:00) Adam Erne: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:01) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:42) Jack Eichel: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:53) Wyatt Johnston: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:29) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:45) Jason Robertson: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 7:49) Matt Duchene: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:08) Jamie Benn: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:07) Colin Blackwell: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 10:38) Tomas Hertl: bat, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:59) Brett Howden: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 13:07) Brayden McNabb: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:12) Jason Robertson: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 13:44) Wyatt Johnston: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:05) Jamie Benn: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:14) Braeden Bowman: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 15:30) Pavel Dorofeyev: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:34) Jack Eichel: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 15:37) Tyler Myers: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 16:45) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:13) Pavel Dorofeyev: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:31) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:14) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:41) Nic Dowd: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 4:19) Tomas Hertl: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:56) Pavel Dorofeyev: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:19) Jeremy Lauzon: snap, 73 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:31) Esa Lindell: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:00) Matt Duchene: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 7:40) Brett Howden: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 8:38) Colton Sissons: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 11:36) Mavrik Bourque: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 12:15) Brayden McNabb: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:05) Brayden McNabb: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:32) Brayden McNabb: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:50) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 15:15) Michael Bunting: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:07) Kaedan Korczak: snap, 77 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:22) Shea Theodore: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:41) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:23) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 147 ft, xG 0.44 (P3 19:33) Shea Theodore: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:57) Jack Eichel: GOAL, snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:31) Oskar Bäck: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.42 (P2 10:41) Jamie Benn: GOAL, bat, 8 ft, xG 0.27 (P2 14:16)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 101 +1 50.28 0022:51
93 Mitch Marner 000 0 30.00 0020:15
48 Tomas Hertl 000 -1 40.27 0118:09
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 000 +1 70.15 0117:31
42 Braeden Bowman 000 -1 20.24 0017:10
49 Ivan Barbashev 011 0 10.14 4015:03
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 40.11 0113:58
21 Brett Howden 000 0 20.18 4112:51
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 30.12 3011:32
19 Reilly Smith 000 0 00.00 0011:32
22 Cole Smith 000 0 10.00 3010:59
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 0 10.10 8010:39
Defense
27 Shea Theodore 011 +1 40.10 0121:56
15 Noah Hanifin 000 -1 50.00 0020:22
3 Brayden McNabb 000 0 70.25 5219:52
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 0 20.05 0019:40
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 +1 20.07 5316:31
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 -1 20.07 0012:03
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Adin Hill 16214 .875 2.85 +0.85

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
53 Wyatt Johnston 011 -1 50.61 1022:51
21 Jason Robertson 000 -1 30.29 0122:04
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 -1 40.18 2019:24
14 Jamie Benn 101 0 40.64 2115:12
95 Matt Duchene 011 0 20.20 1115:01
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 0 00.00 2114:06
25 Arttu Hyry 000 +1 00.00 3013:30
10 Oskar Bäck 101 +1 10.42 0013:29
58 Michael Bunting 000 0 10.01 0012:33
15 Colin Blackwell 011 +1 20.41 3111:32
18 Sam Steel 000 0 10.08 2011:25
73 Adam Erne 000 0 20.09 5009:59
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 000 -1 30.11 1226:35
23 Esa Lindell 000 -1 10.02 0522:34
55 Thomas Harley 011 0 40.04 0321:34
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 0 50.01 0014:20
6 Lian Bichsel 000 +1 00.00 2214:12
57 Tyler Myers 000 +1 10.18 2113:46
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 27126 .963 2.11 +1.11

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Shea Theodore D +1.79 +0.70 +0.07 +0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:56
3 Brayden McNabb D +1.18 0.00 +0.17 +0.91 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:52
9 Jack Eichel C +1.01 +0.75 +0.18 -0.03 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 22:51
33 Adin Hill G +0.85 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.85 58:10
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.49 0.00 +0.05 +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 16:31
19 Reilly Smith R +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:32
55 Keegan Kolesar R +0.41 0.00 +0.06 +0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:39
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +0.40 0.00 +0.10 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:31
22 Cole Smith R +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.23 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:59
10 Colton Sissons C +0.23 0.00 +0.07 +0.09 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 13:58
62 Nic Dowd C +0.20 0.00 +0.08 +0.31 -0.15 -0.04 0.00 — 11:32
93 Mitch Marner R +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.17 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 20:15
21 Brett Howden C -0.11 0.00 +0.11 -0.26 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 12:51
48 Tomas Hertl C -0.26 0.00 +0.17 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:09
49 Ivan Barbashev L -0.39 +0.55 +0.09 -0.99 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 15:03
4 Rasmus Andersson D -0.78 0.00 +0.03 -0.62 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 19:40
6 Kaedan Korczak D -0.86 0.00 +0.04 -0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:03
42 Braeden Bowman R -1.21 0.00 +0.16 -1.22 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:10
15 Noah Hanifin D -1.45 0.00 0.00 -1.41 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:22

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
15 Colin Blackwell C +2.12 +0.70 +0.27 +0.97 +0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 11:32
10 Oskar Bäck C +1.87 +0.75 +0.27 +0.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:29
14 Jamie Benn L +1.13 +0.75 +0.42 -0.10 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 15:12
29 Jake Oettinger G +1.11 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.11 59:53
6 Lian Bichsel D +1.00 0.00 0.00 +0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 14:12
53 Wyatt Johnston C +0.91 +0.70 +0.40 -0.32 +0.15 +0.02 -0.04 — 22:51
55 Thomas Harley D +0.89 +0.55 +0.02 +0.34 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 21:34
57 Tyler Myers D +0.89 0.00 +0.12 +0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:46
95 Matt Duchene C +0.67 +0.55 +0.13 +0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 — 15:01
25 Arttu Hyry R +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.63 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 13:30
73 Adam Erne L +0.04 0.00 +0.06 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 9:59
18 Sam Steel C +0.03 0.00 +0.05 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:25
58 Michael Bunting L -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:33
49 Justin Hryckowian C -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.06 -0.15 +0.03 +0.05 — 14:06
5 Nils Lundkvist D -0.09 0.00 +0.01 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:20
21 Jason Robertson L -0.14 0.00 +0.19 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:04
22 Mavrik Bourque C -0.26 0.00 +0.12 -0.68 +0.30 0.00 0.00 — 19:24
23 Esa Lindell D -0.29 0.00 +0.01 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 22:34
4 Miro Heiskanen D -0.39 0.00 +0.07 -0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 26:35

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.