Calgary FlamesCGY 2–3 Final New York IslandersNYI

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Calgary FlamesCGY	0	0	2	2	32
New York IslandersNYI	3	0	0	3	27

Playoff odds, %	Change
NYI	+5.0
CGY	-0.0
CBJ	-1.2
PIT	-0.8
OTT	-0.7
DET	-0.7
PHI	-0.6
BOS	-0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 14, 2026 6:05 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
10:06	NYI	Casey Cizikas (8) Kyle MacLean (5) · snap xG 0.34	0–1 ▶
16:35	NYI	Simon Holmstrom (15) Brayden Schenn (18), Anthony Duclair (15) · snap xG 0.25	0–2 ▶
19:35	NYI	Simon Holmstrom (16)SH Jean-Gabriel Pageau (16) · snap xG 0.28	0–3 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
2:17	CGY	Mikael Backlund (15) Olli Maatta (5), Kevin Bahl (12) · tip-in xG 0.08	1–3 ▶
8:28	CGY	Blake Coleman (16) Yan Kuznetsov (8) · snap xG 0.34	2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CGY 49%Deserve to win51% NYI

CGY		NYI
2.74	Expected goals	2.80
2	Goals (no shootout)	3
2.02	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.35
65	Shot attempts	49
44	Unblocked attempts	38
32	Shots on goal	27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
19:35	NYI	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · NYI takes the lead, 60–40% CGY had led since 7:48 of the 1st, by as much as 69%
20:00	CGY	Goalie change	Goalie change · Wolf in for Cooley The start of the 2nd; Cooley had allowed 3 goals on 10 shots (1.60 xG)
3rd Period
14:10	CGY	Shortened bench	Shortened bench · 2 forwards sat Klapka and Beecher: no shift after 4:09 of the 3rd
14:10	CGY	No shift	No shift · Zary, 11:41 on the bench No shift from 4:10 to 15:51 of the 3rd; 11 shifts (9:31) before that
18:20	CGY	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 3–2 With 1:40 left

Shot map

CGY shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NYI shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Calgary Flames

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
20	Blake Coleman	1	0	1	+2	9	0.58	1	0	19:23
22	Ryan Strome	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	1	18:03
16	Morgan Frost	0	0	0	-1	3	0.21	0	2	17:54
27	Matt Coronato	0	0	0	-1	4	0.29	1	0	17:47
95	Victor Olofsson	0	0	0	-1	6	0.25	0	2	17:30
11	Mikael Backlund	1	0	1	0	5	0.11	0	0	17:07
86	Joel Farabee	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	0	0	16:45
17	Yegor Sharangovich	0	0	0	-1	7	0.54	1	0	16:30
92	Matvei Gridin	0	0	0	-1	4	0.09	0	0	16:23
47	Connor Zary	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	10:41
17	John Beecher	0	0	0	-1	2	0.09	1	0	09:44
43	Adam Klapka	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	1	08:05
Defense
7	Kevin Bahl	0	1	1	-1	2	0.00	0	0	23:13
3	Olli Maatta	0	1	1	-1	4	0.07	0	0	21:00
28	Zach Whitecloud	0	0	0	+1	6	0.18	1	3	19:51
19	Zayne Parekh	0	0	0	0	5	0.12	1	1	19:14
37	Yan Kuznetsov	0	1	1	+1	4	0.12	2	0	17:40
44	Joel Hanley	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	13:58

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Devin Cooley	10	3	7	.700	1.60	-1.40
Dustin Wolf	17	0	17	1.000	1.21	+1.21

New York Islanders

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Bo Horvat	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	0	0	20:01
13	Mathew Barzal	0	0	0	0	6	0.33	0	2	19:07
44	Jean-Gabriel Pageau	0	1	1	+1	3	0.32	3	1	17:04
72	Anders Lee	0	0	0	-1	3	0.13	4	1	16:24
92	Simon Holmstrom	2	0	2	+2	3	0.55	0	0	15:30
51	Emil Heineman	0	0	0	0	5	0.36	2	0	15:10
10	Brayden Schenn	0	1	1	0	2	0.08	3	0	14:32
64	Calum Ritchie	0	0	0	-1	3	0.04	0	1	13:55
11	Anthony Duclair	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	1	2	12:58
53	Casey Cizikas	1	0	1	0	3	0.45	4	1	11:56
32	Kyle MacLean	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	2	0	10:41
81	Ondrej Palat	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	10:06
Defense
48	Matthew Schaefer	0	0	0	+1	7	0.12	0	4	22:06
77	Tony DeAngelo	0	0	0	+2	2	0.20	0	1	21:42
3	Adam Pelech	0	0	0	+1	2	0.04	0	0	21:32
6	Ryan Pulock	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	0	3	21:06
24	Scott Mayfield	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	2	17:18
7	Carson Soucy	0	0	0	-2	3	0.03	1	0	15:07

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
David Rittich	32	2	30	.938	2.74	+0.74

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Calgary Flames

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
20 Blake Coleman L	+2.07	+0.75	+0.38	+0.94	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:23
37 Yan Kuznetsov D	+1.32	+0.70	+0.08	+0.56	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:40
32 Dustin Wolf G	+1.21	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.21	38:29
11 Mikael Backlund C	+1.13	+0.75	+0.07	+0.34	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	17:07
28 Zach Whitecloud D	+0.85	0.00	+0.12	+0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	19:51
86 Joel Farabee L	+0.43	0.00	+0.01	+0.44	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:45
22 Ryan Strome C	+0.33	0.00	+0.03	+0.32	0.00	-0.07	+0.05	—	18:03
47 Connor Zary C	+0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:41
17 Yegor Sharangovich C	+0.27	0.00	+0.35	-0.10	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	16:30
95 Victor Olofsson L	+0.09	0.00	+0.17	-0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	17:30
44 Joel Hanley D	+0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:58
18 John Beecher C	+0.04	0.00	+0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	9:44
3 Olli Maatta D	-0.10	+0.70	+0.05	-0.76	0.00	0.00	-0.08	—	21:00
7 Kevin Bahl D	-0.16	+0.55	0.00	-0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	23:13
19 Zayne Parekh D	-0.39	0.00	+0.08	-0.48	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	19:14
43 Adam Klapka R	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.30	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	8:05
27 Matt Coronato R	-0.51	0.00	+0.19	-0.73	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	17:47
16 Morgan Frost C	-0.64	0.00	+0.14	-1.02	+0.15	+0.01	+0.08	—	17:54
92 Matvei Gridin R	-0.89	0.00	+0.06	-1.09	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:23
1 Devin Cooley G	-1.40	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.40	18:43

New York Islanders

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
92 Simon Holmstrom R	+2.02	+1.50	+0.36	+0.18	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:30
77 Tony DeAngelo D	+1.17	0.00	+0.13	+1.01	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	21:42
53 Casey Cizikas C	+1.09	+0.75	+0.29	+0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	11:56
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C	+0.97	+0.70	+0.21	0.00	0.00	+0.04	+0.03	—	17:04
33 David Rittich G	+0.89	0.00	—	—	+0.15	—	—	+0.74	59:45
11 Anthony Duclair L	+0.88	+0.55	+0.01	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	12:58
51 Emil Heineman L	+0.81	0.00	+0.23	+0.62	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	15:10
13 Mathew Barzal C	+0.75	0.00	+0.22	+0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	19:07
32 Kyle MacLean C	+0.73	+0.70	0.00	+0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:41
14 Bo Horvat C	+0.69	0.00	+0.06	+0.64	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	20:01
48 Matthew Schaefer D	+0.65	0.00	+0.08	+0.37	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	22:06
10 Brayden Schenn C	+0.45	+0.70	+0.05	-0.31	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	14:32
3 Adam Pelech D	+0.39	0.00	+0.03	+0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	21:32
6 Ryan Pulock D	0.00	0.00	+0.01	-0.16	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	21:06
81 Ondrej Palat L	-0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:06
27 Anders Lee L	-0.31	0.00	+0.09	-0.41	0.00	+0.01	+0.01	—	16:24
64 Calum Ritchie C	-0.35	0.00	+0.03	-0.27	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	13:55
24 Scott Mayfield D	-0.35	0.00	+0.01	-0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	17:18
4 Carson Soucy D	-0.51	0.00	+0.02	-0.42	-0.15	0.00	+0.04	—	15:07

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.