Monday, March 16, 2026
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 16, 2026 4:53 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
BOS 31%Deserve to win 69% NJD
BOS NJD
2.23 Expected goals 3.33
3 Goals (no shootout) 4
1.51 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.54
45 Shot attempts 71
34 Unblocked attempts 51
22 Shots on goal 34
Shot map
BOS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → NJD shoots
Luke Hughes: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:32)
Simon Nemec: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:54)
Charlie McAvoy: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:50)
Charlie McAvoy: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:03)
Johnathan Kovacevic: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 3:33)
Henri Jokiharju: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:58)
Nikita Zadorov: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:06)
Jonas Siegenthaler: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:11)
Cody Glass: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:26)
Lenni Hameenaho: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:27)
Morgan Geekie: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:09)
Simon Nemec: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:46)
Sean Kuraly: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:04)
Hampus Lindholm: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:28)
Lenni Hameenaho: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:51)
Fraser Minten: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:32)
Simon Nemec: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:39)
Simon Nemec: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:48)
Timo Meier: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:41)
Timo Meier: poke, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:42)
Nico Hischier: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:38)
Mark Kastelic: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:58)
Mason Lohrei: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:55)
Connor Brown: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:14)
Johnathan Kovacevic: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:32)
Jonas Siegenthaler: wrist, 116 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:03)
Jonas Siegenthaler: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:13)
Fraser Minten: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:03)
Fraser Minten: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:13)
Arseny Gritsyuk: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:36)
Sean Kuraly: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:45)
David Pastrnak: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:23)
Johnathan Kovacevic: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:39)
Nico Hischier: deflected, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:53)
Timo Meier: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:56)
Sean Kuraly: backhand, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:03)
Jonas Siegenthaler: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:49)
Connor Brown: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 7:46)
Nikita Zadorov: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:38)
Simon Nemec: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:59)
Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:00)
Alex Steeves: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 11:22)
Sean Kuraly: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:22)
Timo Meier: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:04)
Nico Hischier: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:10)
Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:25)
Connor Brown: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 14:37)
Jack Hughes: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:38)
Jonathan Aspirot: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:11)
Johnathan Kovacevic: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:43)
Timo Meier: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:48)
Dawson Mercer: backhand, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:06)
Jack Hughes: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:24)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:41)
Connor Brown: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:49)
Mark Kastelic: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:11)
Dougie Hamilton: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:08)
Timo Meier: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:55)
Charlie McAvoy: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:19)
Viktor Arvidsson: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:29)
Alex Steeves: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 2:18)
Jonathan Aspirot: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:24)
Cody Glass: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:12)
Jonas Siegenthaler: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:16)
Simon Nemec: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:02)
Lenni Hameenaho: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 7:41)
David Pastrnak: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 12:42)
Morgan Geekie: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:15)
Fraser Minten: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:23)
Jack Hughes: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:02)
Elias Lindholm: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:27)
Morgan Geekie: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 18:32)
Jesper Bratt: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.25 (OT 0:51)
Luke Hughes: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (OT 1:17)
David Pastrnak: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 2:00)
Arseny Gritsyuk: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (OT 2:35)
Jack Hughes: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 3:51)
Charlie McAvoy: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 4:44)
David Pastrnak: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 4:02)
Pavel Zacha: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 14:29)
Connor Brown: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.37 (P2 0:32)
Jesper Bratt: GOAL, slap, 29 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 8:08)
Paul Cotter: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 2:50)
David Pastrnak: GOAL, backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 4:32)
Paul Cotter: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 4:53)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Boston Bruins
New Jersey Devils
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Boston Bruins
New Jersey Devils
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
16 Connor Brown R
+3.65
+1.45
+0.55
+1.65
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
19:50
86 Jack Hughes C
+3.50
+1.95
+0.20
+1.30
0.00
-0.02
+0.08
—
24:16
63 Jesper Bratt L
+2.62
+0.75
+0.27
+1.32
+0.30
0.00
-0.02
—
22:38
5 Brenden Dillon D
+1.35
+0.55
0.00
+0.77
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
15:48
47 Paul Cotter L
+1.30
+1.50
+0.20
-0.39
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
9:18
71 Jonas Siegenthaler D
+0.62
0.00
+0.09
+0.42
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
21:31
8 Johnathan Kovacevic D
+0.59
0.00
+0.13
+0.43
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
16:10
43 Luke Hughes D
+0.57
0.00
+0.14
+0.43
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
22:35
7 Dougie Hamilton D
+0.53
+0.55
+0.07
-0.12
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
26:19
42 Maxim Tsyplakov R
+0.51
+0.70
0.00
-0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
7:39
29 Lenni Hameenaho R
+0.47
0.00
+0.14
+0.34
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
9:16
17 Simon Nemec D
+0.42
0.00
+0.06
+0.35
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
19:48
12 Cody Glass C
+0.38
0.00
+0.03
+0.31
0.00
+0.04
0.00
—
15:26
28 Timo Meier R
0.00
0.00
+0.15
-0.17
0.00
+0.01
+0.01
—
17:56
81 Arseny Gritsyuk R
-0.04
0.00
+0.02
-0.05
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
11:17
72 Nick Bjugstad C
-0.09
0.00
0.00
+0.08
-0.15
-0.02
0.00
—
7:42
13 Nico Hischier C
-0.33
0.00
+0.10
-0.22
-0.15
-0.02
-0.04
—
22:03
91 Dawson Mercer C
-0.73
0.00
0.00
-0.56
-0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
19:07
25 Jacob Markstrom G
-0.77
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-0.77
64:53
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.