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Tampa Bay LightningTBL 6–2 Final Seattle KrakenSEA

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 213 6 26
Seattle KrakenSEA 020 2 18
Playoff odds, % Change
SEA -8.1
TBL +1.0
LAK +2.1
SJS +1.5
EDM +1.5
VGK +0.7
NSH +0.6
UTA +0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 17, 2026 9:15 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:45 TBL Gage Goncalves (11) Brayden Point (28), Jake Guentzel (41) · tip-in xG 0.08 1–0 ▶
18:49 TBL Nikita Kucherov (35) Brandon Hagel (30) · wrist xG 0.26 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
0:57 TBL Nikita Kucherov (36) Anthony Cirelli (26), Brandon Hagel (31) · wrist xG 0.18 3–0 ▶
1:07 SEA Bobby McMann (23) Matty Beniers (26) · wrist xG 0.10 3–1 ▶
9:46 SEA Jared McCann (18) Jordan Eberle (27), Philipp Grubauer (2) · wrist xG 0.18 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
4:35 TBL Anthony Cirelli (16) Nikita Kucherov (73), Brandon Hagel (32) · snap xG 0.29 4–2 ▶
16:54 TBL Brandon Hagel (31)PP Gage Goncalves (15), Nikita Kucherov (74) · wrist xG 0.13 5–2 ▶
17:16 TBL Nikita Kucherov (37)EN Anthony Cirelli (27) · wrist xG 0.94 6–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 67%Deserve to win33% SEA
TBLSEA
3.36Expected goals1.59
6Goals (no shootout)2
1.89Expected goals, 5 on 51.28
63Shot attempts36
39Unblocked attempts29
26Shots on goal18

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
0:57 SEA Goalie Goalie · Grubauer −2.0 goals saved
3 goals on 0.99 xG, 10 shots on goal
3rd Period
17:07 SEA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Grubauer, down 5–2
With 2:53 left; TBL scored at 17:16 of the 3rd (6–2)

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SEA shoots
Nikita Kucherov: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:22) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:41) Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:22) Jacob Melanson: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 8:53) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:16) Chandler Stephenson: wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:41) Matty Beniers: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:11) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 178 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:15) Darren Raddysh: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:04) Brayden Point: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 13:18) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:35) Ryan Winterton: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:50) Victor Hedman: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:30) Brandon Montour: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:08) Berkly Catton: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:15) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:28) Adam Larsson: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:50) Darren Raddysh: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:22) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:33) Jamie Oleksiak: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:22) Jamie Oleksiak: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:31) Bobby McMann: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:34) Jared McCann: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:20) Ryan Winterton: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 9:52) Jordan Eberle: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:15) Vince Dunn: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:30) Brandon Montour: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:22) Brandon Montour: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:27) Ryan Lindgren: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:59) Gage Goncalves: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:43) Victor Hedman: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:56) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:01) Jacob Melanson: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:29) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 18:36) Jared McCann: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:03) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:03) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:18) Bobby McMann: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:34) Frederick Gaudreau: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 2:13) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:47) Zemgus Girgensons: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:54) Chandler Stephenson: tip-in, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:52) Victor Hedman: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:41) Zemgus Girgensons: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:10) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 9:05) Adam Larsson: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:20) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:36) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:22) J.J. Moser: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:53) Darren Raddysh: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:58) Darren Raddysh: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:07) Kaapo Kakko: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:59) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 15:26) Shane Wright: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:05) Vince Dunn: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:09) Oliver Bjorkstrand: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:18) Nick Paul: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 19:32) Nick Paul: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:43) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:48) Corey Perry: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:58) Gage Goncalves: GOAL, tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:45) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.26 (P1 18:49) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 0:57) Bobby McMann: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:07) Jared McCann: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 9:46) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, snap, 8 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 4:35) Brandon Hagel: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 16:54) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.94 (P3 17:16)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
86 Nikita Kucherov 325 +3 131.52 1019:49
59 Jake Guentzel 011 +1 50.14 1019:39
21 Brayden Point 011 +1 20.13 0118:46
38 Brandon Hagel 134 +3 40.26 0217:21
71 Anthony Cirelli 123 +2 20.33 0015:48
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 0 40.11 0115:01
20 Nick Paul 000 0 20.17 1013:34
90 Corey Perry 000 0 10.05 2013:06
93 Gage Goncalves 112 0 40.20 5012:58
37 Yanni Gourde 000 0 00.00 1012:07
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 0 40.07 3012:05
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 00.00 2010:25
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 000 +1 70.11 1122:10
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 +2 10.10 0021:17
90 J.J. Moser 000 +1 30.02 0019:11
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 0 40.06 4117:59
77 Victor Hedman 000 0 60.07 0117:14
81 Erik Cernak 000 +1 10.00 0016:27
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 18216 .889 1.59 -0.41

Seattle Kraken

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
7 Jordan Eberle 011 -1 20.11 0118:44
10 Matty Beniers 011 -1 20.01 0118:21
9 Chandler Stephenson 000 -1 30.05 0017:54
74 Bobby McMann 101 -1 40.15 2016:58
89 Frederick Gaudreau 000 -1 20.11 0016:53
51 Shane Wright 000 0 10.06 0215:51
26 Ryan Winterton 000 -1 20.28 2114:26
27 Berkly Catton 000 0 10.08 0013:55
84 Kaapo Kakko 000 0 10.03 0013:22
19 Jared McCann 101 -1 30.24 0112:53
59 Ben Meyers 000 -1 00.00 0011:52
63 Jacob Melanson 000 -1 20.25 9109:14
Defense
62 Brandon Montour 000 -4 30.09 1123:11
29 Vince Dunn 000 0 30.02 1219:23
6 Adam Larsson 000 0 30.07 2418:43
55 Ryan Lindgren 000 -3 10.05 0218:05
41 Ryker Evans 000 0 10.00 1217:50
4 Jamie Oleksiak 000 0 20.02 5217:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Philipp Grubauer 25520 .800 2.42 -2.58

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R +5.42 +3.50 +0.99 +0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:49
38 Brandon Hagel L +3.97 +2.55 +0.17 +1.00 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 17:21
71 Anthony Cirelli C +2.89 +2.15 +0.22 +0.51 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 15:48
93 Gage Goncalves C +1.34 +1.45 +0.13 -0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:58
21 Brayden Point C +0.83 +0.70 +0.08 +0.05 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 18:46
59 Jake Guentzel C +0.74 +0.55 +0.09 +0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:39
20 Nick Paul L +0.62 0.00 +0.11 +0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:34
43 Darren Raddysh D +0.57 0.00 +0.07 +0.62 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 22:10
90 J.J. Moser D +0.57 0.00 +0.02 +0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:11
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +0.50 0.00 +0.07 +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:01
27 Ryan McDonagh D +0.40 0.00 +0.07 +0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:17
10 Corey Perry R +0.26 0.00 +0.03 +0.38 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:06
77 Victor Hedman D +0.09 0.00 +0.05 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:14
81 Erik Cernak D +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:27
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +0.01 0.00 +0.04 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:59
37 Yanni Gourde C -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.19 +0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 12:07
28 Zemgus Girgensons C -0.04 0.00 +0.04 -0.11 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 12:05
29 Pontus Holmberg R -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:25
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G -0.41 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.41 59:03

Seattle Kraken

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
19 Jared McCann L +1.05 +0.75 +0.15 +0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 12:53
7 Jordan Eberle R +0.59 +0.70 +0.07 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 18:44
26 Ryan Winterton C +0.38 0.00 +0.18 -0.04 +0.15 0.00 +0.09 — 14:26
10 Matty Beniers C +0.34 +0.70 +0.01 -0.39 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 18:21
29 Vince Dunn D +0.29 0.00 +0.01 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:23
41 Ryker Evans D +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.26 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 17:50
74 Bobby McMann C +0.15 +0.75 +0.10 -0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 16:58
59 Ben Meyers C +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.14 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 11:52
9 Chandler Stephenson C +0.02 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 0.00 +0.04 -0.06 — 17:54
89 Frederick Gaudreau C 0.00 0.00 +0.07 -0.04 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 16:53
6 Adam Larsson D -0.01 0.00 +0.04 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 18:43
63 Jacob Melanson R -0.03 0.00 +0.16 -0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:14
24 Jamie Oleksiak D -0.06 0.00 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:14
27 Berkly Catton C -0.42 0.00 +0.05 -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:55
51 Shane Wright C -0.44 0.00 +0.04 -0.39 -0.15 -0.04 +0.10 — 15:51
84 Kaapo Kakko R -0.45 0.00 +0.02 -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:22
55 Ryan Lindgren D -0.70 0.00 +0.03 -0.96 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 18:05
62 Brandon Montour D -1.37 0.00 +0.06 -1.41 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 23:11
31 Philipp Grubauer G -2.03 +0.55 — — 0.00 — — -2.58 59:23

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.