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Buffalo SabresBUF 5–0 Final San Jose SharksSJS

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF 032 5 16
San Jose SharksSJS 000 0 23
Playoff odds, % Change
SJS -8.1
BUF +0.0
LAK +1.8
EDM +1.4
SEA +1.3
VGK +1.1
NSH +1.0
UTA +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 19, 2026 9:17 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
9:05 BUF Noah Ostlund (11) Josh Doan (24), Logan Stanley (13) · wrist xG 0.23 1–0 ▶
9:41 BUF Sam Carrick (7) Rasmus Dahlin (48), Zach Benson (23) · wrist xG 0.02 2–0 ▶
10:48 BUF Rasmus Dahlin (14) Jason Zucker (17), Mattias Samuelsson (26) · wrist xG 0.16 3–0 ▶
3rd Period
0:40 BUF Tage Thompson (35) Peyton Krebs (23), Alex Tuch (30) · wrist xG 0.10 4–0 ▶
16:54 BUF Sam Carrick (8) Logan Stanley (14), Zach Metsa (3) · deflected xG 0.20 5–0 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 57%Deserve to win43% SJS
BUFSJS
2.27Expected goals1.93
5Goals (no shootout)0
2.14Expected goals, 5 on 51.63
43Shot attempts49
26Unblocked attempts34
16Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
10:20 SJS No shift No shift · Toffoli, 36:49 on the bench
No shift after 17:07 of the 1st; 5 shifts (3:41) before that
10:48 BUF Deserve to win Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 63–37%
SJS had led since 4:57 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
3rd Period
0:40 SJS Goalie Goalie · Nedeljkovic −2.4 goals saved
4 goals on 1.60 xG, 9 shots on goal

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SJS shoots
Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 184 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:37) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 0:55) William Eklund: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:32) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:57) Sam Carrick: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:48) Noah Ostlund: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:50) Beck Malenstyn: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 6:36) Jack Quinn: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 8:34) Zack Ostapchuk: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:09) Josh Doan: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:57) Kiefer Sherwood: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 12:05) Jack Quinn: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:37) Bowen Byram: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:00) Nick Leddy: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:45) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:59) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 17:53) Noah Ostlund: poke, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 18:26) Nick Leddy: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:39) Collin Graf: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:33) William Eklund: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 2:44) Pavol Regenda: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:29) Alex Tuch: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:57) Will Smith: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:17) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:06) Bowen Byram: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 8:19) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:54) Tage Thompson: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 10:22) Collin Graf: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 12:14) Will Smith: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 14:50) Nick Leddy: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:32) Tage Thompson: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:24) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:56) Michael Misa: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:58) Zack Ostapchuk: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:16) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:17) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:17) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:17) Macklin Celebrini: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:52) Jason Zucker: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:03) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:31) Collin Graf: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:13) Jason Zucker: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:42) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:18) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:25) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:52) Sam Carrick: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 12:23) Will Smith: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:32) Zach Metsa: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:01) Will Smith: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:12) Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:27) Bowen Byram: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:20) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:23) Logan Stanley: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:27) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:13) Josh Doan: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 18:59) Noah Ostlund: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 9:05) Sam Carrick: GOAL, wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:41) Rasmus Dahlin: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 10:48) Tage Thompson: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 0:40) Sam Carrick: GOAL, deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 16:54)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Alex Tuch 011 +1 10.05 1217:36
72 Tage Thompson 101 +1 40.26 3016:50
86 Noah Ostlund 101 +1 40.44 0116:06
71 Ryan McLeod 000 +1 00.00 0015:58
91 Josh Doan 011 +1 30.12 0115:17
22 Jack Quinn 000 +1 40.20 1114:55
9 Josh Norris 000 +1 00.00 1114:54
19 Peyton Krebs 011 +1 10.00 2114:17
17 Jason Zucker 011 +1 30.10 0014:08
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 +2 10.08 3013:54
10 Sam Carrick 202 +2 50.48 0013:27
6 Zach Benson 011 +2 10.00 1011:59
Defense
24 Bowen Byram 000 +1 40.35 1024:07
25 Owen Power 000 +1 00.00 0320:47
26 Rasmus Dahlin 112 +2 50.16 0019:15
23 Mattias Samuelsson 011 +2 20.00 0118:36
8 Logan Stanley 022 +2 30.02 1218:06
73 Zach Metsa 011 +2 20.01 0115:48
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Lyon 23023 1.000 1.93 +1.93

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Macklin Celebrini 000 -1 60.22 3121:33
44 Kiefer Sherwood 000 -2 40.32 3120:43
2 Will Smith 000 -1 50.41 0020:29
21 Alexander Wennberg 000 -2 10.00 2117:42
51 Collin Graf 000 -1 30.15 0017:27
27 William Eklund 000 -2 30.08 0015:54
77 Michael Misa 000 -1 10.08 1214:20
84 Pavol Regenda 000 -1 20.05 3014:16
63 Zack Ostapchuk 000 -1 20.10 1111:40
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 -1 30.16 2011:36
81 Adam Gaudette 000 -2 10.05 1010:54
73 Tyler Toffoli 000 0 10.09 0003:41
Defense
38 Mario Ferraro 000 -2 20.02 3323:06
73 Vincent Desharnais 000 -1 10.01 3419:51
9 Dmitry Orlov 000 -2 50.06 1019:15
6 Sam Dickinson 000 -2 40.05 2319:02
4 Nick Leddy 000 -1 40.09 0018:15
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin 000 -2 10.00 2016:16
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic 16511 .688 2.27 -2.73

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
10 Sam Carrick C +2.26 +1.50 +0.31 +0.40 0.00 +0.07 -0.02 — 13:27
64 Logan Stanley D +2.15 +1.25 +0.01 +0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 18:06
34 Alex Lyon G +1.93 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.93 60:00
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +1.82 +1.45 +0.11 +0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:15
86 Noah Ostlund C +1.79 +0.75 +0.28 +0.70 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:06
73 Zach Metsa D +1.44 +0.55 +0.01 +0.87 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:48
72 Tage Thompson C +1.20 +0.75 +0.17 +0.17 +0.15 -0.04 0.00 — 16:50
6 Zach Benson L +1.04 +0.55 0.00 +0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:59
91 Josh Doan R +1.00 +0.70 +0.08 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:17
89 Alex Tuch R +0.85 +0.55 +0.03 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:36
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.83 +0.70 0.00 -0.03 +0.15 -0.02 +0.03 — 14:17
29 Beck Malenstyn L +0.77 0.00 +0.05 +0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:54
17 Jason Zucker L +0.73 +0.70 +0.06 +0.14 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:08
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +0.68 +0.55 0.00 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:36
4 Bowen Byram D +0.60 0.00 +0.23 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 24:07
22 Jack Quinn R +0.42 0.00 +0.13 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:55
9 Josh Norris C +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.34 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 14:54
71 Ryan McLeod C +0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.40 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:58
25 Owen Power D +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.30 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 20:47

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
2 Will Smith C +0.65 0.00 +0.26 +0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:29
71 Macklin Celebrini C +0.33 0.00 +0.15 +0.12 0.00 +0.04 +0.03 — 21:33
63 Zack Ostapchuk C +0.24 0.00 +0.06 +0.13 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 11:40
73 Tyler Toffoli C +0.16 0.00 +0.06 +0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 3:41
5 Vincent Desharnais D +0.13 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 19:51
23 Barclay Goodrow C +0.07 0.00 +0.10 +0.18 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 11:36
84 Pavol Regenda L -0.04 0.00 +0.03 -0.21 +0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:16
9 Dmitry Orlov D -0.14 0.00 +0.04 -0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:15
4 Nick Leddy D -0.15 0.00 +0.06 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:15
51 Collin Graf R -0.16 0.00 +0.10 -0.22 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 17:27
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:16
44 Kiefer Sherwood L -0.17 0.00 +0.21 -0.57 +0.15 +0.01 +0.03 — 20:43
38 Mario Ferraro D -0.55 0.00 +0.01 -0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 23:06
77 Michael Misa C -0.63 0.00 +0.05 -0.78 0.00 +0.03 +0.06 — 14:20
21 Alexander Wennberg C -1.01 0.00 0.00 -0.85 -0.15 -0.06 +0.05 — 17:42
81 Adam Gaudette R -1.07 0.00 +0.03 -1.11 0.00 -0.02 +0.02 — 10:54
72 William Eklund L -1.12 0.00 +0.05 -1.14 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:54
6 Sam Dickinson D -1.19 0.00 +0.03 -1.35 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 19:02
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G -2.73 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.73 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.