Thursday, March 26, 2026
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 26, 2026 6:17 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
CHI 5%Deserve to win 95% PHI
CHI PHI
1.73 Expected goals 5.90
1 Goals (no shootout) 5
1.56 Expected goals, 5 on 5 5.29
44 Shot attempts 72
33 Unblocked attempts 62
26 Shots on goal 42
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
19:00
PHI
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced CHI 1.63–0.16
In xG over 10 minutes, 12:20 of the 2nd to 2:20 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
16:10
PHI
xG swing
xG swing · Out-chanced CHI 1.14–0.06
In xG over 10 minutes, 7:30 to 17:30 of the 3rd; neither team scored
Shot map
CHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → PHI shoots
Anton Frondell: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:13)
Ryan Greene: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 1:15)
Trevor Zegras: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 1:43)
Ryan Donato: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:55)
Cam York: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:22)
Sam Rinzel: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:51)
Travis Konecny: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:18)
Christian Dvorak: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 4:29)
Owen Tippett: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 5:16)
Owen Tippett: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:17)
Emil Andrae: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:18)
Ilya Mikheyev: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 5:46)
Rasmus Ristolainen: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:00)
Christian Dvorak: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:06)
Teuvo Teravainen: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:08)
Ryan Greene: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:12)
Travis Sanheim: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:45)
Trevor Zegras: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:29)
Owen Tippett: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:35)
Ilya Mikheyev: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:13)
Christian Dvorak: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 12:41)
Denver Barkey: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:34)
Anton Frondell: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:24)
Travis Sanheim: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:07)
Nick Seeler: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:14)
Emil Andrae: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 16:21)
Carl Grundstrom: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:22)
Louis Crevier: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:38)
Landon Slaggert: tip-in, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:04)
Rasmus Ristolainen: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:10)
Christian Dvorak: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 19:38)
Connor Bedard: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:52)
Owen Tippett: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:16)
Alex Vlasic: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:55)
Ethan Del Mastro: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:41)
Trevor Zegras: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 5:12)
Sam Rinzel: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:50)
Ilya Mikheyev: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:19)
Andre Burakovsky: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:34)
Noah Cates: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:30)
Denver Barkey: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:52)
Trevor Zegras: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 10:02)
Anton Frondell: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:09)
Alex Bump: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:24)
Tyler Bertuzzi: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 12:01)
Owen Tippett: tip-in, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:15)
Trevor Zegras: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:24)
Connor Bedard: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:53)
Louis Crevier: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:46)
Sean Couturier: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 16:10)
Garnet Hathaway: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:19)
Owen Tippett: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 16:38)
Rasmus Ristolainen: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:45)
Noah Cates: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:47)
Travis Konecny: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:12)
Luke Glendening: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:17)
Sean Couturier: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 18:59)
Garnet Hathaway: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 19:06)
Sean Couturier: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:07)
Anton Frondell: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:16)
Sacha Boisvert: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:52)
Anton Frondell: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:38)
Trevor Zegras: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:11)
Jamie Drysdale: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:14)
Landon Slaggert: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 2:32)
Cam York: wrist, 185 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:39)
Rasmus Ristolainen: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:15)
Alex Bump: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:13)
Alex Bump: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:25)
Connor Bedard: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:48)
Anton Frondell: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:26)
Luke Glendening: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:49)
Nick Seeler: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:01)
Connor Bedard: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:02)
Jamie Drysdale: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:18)
Trevor Zegras: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:16)
Nick Seeler: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 13:12)
Trevor Zegras: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.30 (P3 13:14)
Carl Grundstrom: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:46)
Cam York: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:15)
Cam York: wrap-around, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 15:18)
Frank Nazar: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:32)
Trevor Zegras: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:02)
Denver Barkey: backhand, 76 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:33)
Noah Cates: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:22)
Ilya Mikheyev: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:37)
Connor Bedard: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:48)
Ryan Greene: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:03)
Cam York: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:59)
Alex Bump: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.35 (P1 0:48)
Sean Couturier: GOAL, snap, 12 ft, xG 0.31 (P1 2:33)
Denver Barkey: GOAL, snap, 5 ft, xG 0.38 (P2 5:14)
Connor Bedard: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:11)
Noah Cates: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 12:41)
Christian Dvorak: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 19:35)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Chicago Blackhawks
Philadelphia Flyers
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Chicago Blackhawks
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
30 Spencer Knight G
+0.90
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.90
60:00
98 Connor Bedard C
-0.09
+0.75
+0.16
-1.12
+0.15
-0.03
0.00
—
19:37
15 Anton Frondell C
-0.20
+0.70
+0.12
-0.89
-0.15
-0.01
+0.03
—
17:08
84 Landon Slaggert L
-0.27
0.00
+0.09
-0.51
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
8:06
12 Sacha Boisvert C
-0.42
0.00
+0.05
-0.30
-0.15
-0.02
0.00
—
9:03
20 Ryan Greene C
-0.46
0.00
+0.19
-0.61
0.00
-0.04
0.00
—
19:09
86 Teuvo Teravainen C
-0.60
0.00
+0.01
-0.62
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
10:06
38 Ethan Del Mastro D
-0.94
0.00
+0.01
-1.00
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
17:25
6 Sam Rinzel D
-1.15
0.00
+0.01
-1.13
0.00
0.00
-0.03
—
19:22
44 Wyatt Kaiser D
-1.35
0.00
0.00
-1.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
21:54
95 Ilya Mikheyev R
-1.41
0.00
+0.25
-1.71
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
15:36
55 Artyom Levshunov D
-1.44
0.00
0.00
-1.30
-0.15
0.00
+0.01
—
22:20
59 Tyler Bertuzzi L
-1.49
0.00
+0.10
-1.57
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
17:19
76 Nick Lardis L
-1.51
0.00
0.00
-1.51
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
14:38
91 Frank Nazar C
-1.61
0.00
+0.01
-1.63
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
18:06
8 Ryan Donato C
-1.65
0.00
+0.02
-1.63
0.00
-0.04
0.00
—
12:22
28 Andre Burakovsky L
-1.83
0.00
+0.08
-2.02
+0.15
0.00
-0.04
—
12:39
46 Louis Crevier D
-1.97
+0.55
+0.02
-2.51
-0.15
0.00
+0.12
—
16:32
72 Alex Vlasic D
-2.14
0.00
0.00
-2.12
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
20:38
Philadelphia Flyers
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
46 Trevor Zegras C
+3.92
+0.70
+0.74
+2.54
-0.15
+0.06
+0.03
—
16:31
74 Owen Tippett R
+3.35
+1.25
+0.37
+1.72
0.00
-0.01
+0.02
—
15:16
22 Christian Dvorak C
+3.00
+1.45
+0.42
+0.90
+0.15
+0.05
+0.03
—
16:43
52 Denver Barkey C
+2.92
+0.75
+0.32
+1.72
+0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
14:31
14 Sean Couturier C
+2.64
+0.75
+0.50
+1.34
0.00
+0.05
0.00
—
15:54
9 Jamie Drysdale D
+2.53
0.00
+0.03
+2.49
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
21:46
27 Noah Cates L
+2.12
+1.30
+0.20
+0.63
0.00
-0.04
+0.02
—
16:26
8 Cam York D
+2.08
0.00
+0.25
+1.75
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
21:02
20 Alex Bump L
+2.06
+1.30
+0.32
+0.43
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
10:41
24 Nick Seeler D
+1.90
0.00
+0.16
+1.69
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
14:17
6 Travis Sanheim D
+1.61
0.00
+0.02
+1.59
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
25:19
41 Luke Glendening C
+1.56
+0.70
+0.07
+0.77
0.00
+0.02
0.00
—
12:52
39 Matvei Michkov R
+1.52
+0.70
0.00
+0.97
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
16:30
19 Garnet Hathaway R
+1.46
0.00
+0.16
+1.29
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
11:39
36 Emil Andrae D
+1.39
0.00
+0.09
+1.17
0.00
0.00
+0.13
—
13:12
11 Travis Konecny R
+1.34
0.00
+0.07
+1.29
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
—
16:18
55 Rasmus Ristolainen D
+0.82
0.00
+0.04
+0.73
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
22:05
33 Samuel Ersson G
+0.73
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+0.73
59:49
91 Carl Grundstrom R
+0.73
0.00
+0.05
+0.52
+0.15
+0.01
0.00
—
13:09
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.