hockeystats.io

Dallas StarsDAL 6–3 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Dallas StarsDAL 042 6 26
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 111 3 12
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT -5.9
DAL +0.0
NYI +1.3
OTT +1.0
CBJ +1.0
BOS +0.8
DET +0.8
PHI +0.7

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 28, 2026 4:46 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:12 PIT Anthony Mantha (27)PP Erik Karlsson (46), Rickard Rakell (23) · tip-in xG 0.12 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
2:10 DAL Justin Hryckowian (12) Colin Blackwell (10), Jamie Benn (18) · wrist xG 0.14 1–1 ▶
2:58 PIT Erik Karlsson (13) Parker Wotherspoon (24) · wrist xG 0.06 1–2 ▶
7:12 DAL Jason Robertson (40)PP Mikko Rantanen (50), Matt Duchene (23) · wrist xG 0.06 2–2 ▶
10:12 DAL Mikko Rantanen (21)PP Jason Robertson (47), Miro Heiskanen (51) · slap xG 0.08 3–2 ▶
11:38 DAL Lian Bichsel (4) Mavrik Bourque (19), Oskar Bäck (6) · slap xG 0.05 4–2 ▶
3rd Period
8:54 PIT Noel Acciari (10) Elmer Soderblom (3), Erik Karlsson (47) · deflected xG 0.11 4–3 ▶
16:52 DAL Mavrik Bourque (15)EN Tyler Myers (9) · wrist xG 0.49 5–3 ▶
18:50 DAL Mavrik Bourque (16)EN Jamie Benn (19), Esa Lindell (23) · wrist xG 0.50 6–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DAL 52%Deserve to win48% PIT
DALPIT
3.69Expected goals2.24
6Goals (no shootout)3
1.25Expected goals, 5 on 51.33
54Shot attempts57
40Unblocked attempts32
26Shots on goal12

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
9:57 DAL Deserve to win Deserve to win · DAL takes the lead, 62–38%
PIT had led since 7:08 of the 1st, by as much as 67%
11:38 PIT Goalie Goalie · Skinner −2.2 goals saved
4 goals on 1.78 xG, 18 shots on goal
3rd Period
1:00 DAL No shift No shift · Bastian, 23:33 on the bench
No shift after 8:04 of the 2nd; 5 shifts (4:02) before that
16:46 PIT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 4–3
With 3:14 left; DAL scored at 16:52 of the 3rd (5–3)
17:41 PIT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 5–3
With 2:19 left; DAL scored at 18:50 of the 3rd (6–3)

Shot map

DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots
Rickard Rakell: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:23) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:30) Noel Acciari: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:15) Bryan Rust: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:08) Bryan Rust: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:17) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:34) Elmer Soderblom: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:28) Colin Blackwell: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:12) Jason Robertson: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:59) Matt Duchene: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:21) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 11:59) Matt Duchene: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:13) Jason Robertson: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:14) Jason Robertson: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 12:33) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:47) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:56) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 14:57) Oskar Bäck: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:07) Jason Robertson: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:11) Justin Hryckowian: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:32) Arttu Hyry: wrist, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:46) Esa Lindell: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:50) Jamie Benn: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:15) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:51) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:17) Colin Blackwell: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:17) Lian Bichsel: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:27) Elmer Soderblom: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:45) Oskar Bäck: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:39) Jason Robertson: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:43) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 4:32) Ville Koivunen: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:57) Matt Duchene: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 6:47) Arttu Hyry: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:26) Matt Duchene: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 9:57) Arttu Hyry: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:30) Ben Kindel: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:59) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:14) Bryan Rust: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:20) Erik Karlsson: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:14) Egor Chinakhov: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:30) Miro Heiskanen: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:03) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:58) Matt Duchene: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:27) Bryan Rust: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 6:48) Ben Kindel: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 8:20) Elmer Soderblom: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:42) Connor Dewar: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:43) Wyatt Johnston: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:22) Erik Karlsson: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:02) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:18) Bryan Rust: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 11:23) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:00) Ben Kindel: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:47) Tommy Novak: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 12:55) Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 13:14) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:36) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:58) Jason Robertson: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:10) Colin Blackwell: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 15:42) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:47) Arttu Hyry: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:14) Esa Lindell: wrist, 184 ft, xG 0.33 (P3 17:55) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 2:12) Justin Hryckowian: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 2:10) Erik Karlsson: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:58) Jason Robertson: GOAL, wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:12) Mikko Rantanen: GOAL, slap, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:12) Lian Bichsel: GOAL, slap, 50 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:38) Noel Acciari: GOAL, deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 8:54) Mavrik Bourque: GOAL, wrist, 139 ft, xG 0.49 (P3 16:52) Mavrik Bourque: GOAL, wrist, 105 ft, xG 0.50 (P3 18:50)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
21 Jason Robertson 112 +1 120.45 0121:03
22 Mavrik Bourque 213 +3 30.99 0119:02
53 Wyatt Johnston 000 -1 30.24 1019:01
96 Mikko Rantanen 112 -1 40.39 0018:57
95 Matt Duchene 011 +1 60.46 0017:33
49 Justin Hryckowian 101 +1 20.23 0115:55
15 Colin Blackwell 011 0 40.16 2215:36
10 Oskar Bäck 011 +1 20.08 0212:27
58 Michael Bunting 000 -1 00.00 0212:23
25 Arttu Hyry 000 +1 40.16 2012:14
14 Jamie Benn 022 +1 20.04 2012:08
11 Nathan Bastian 000 0 00.00 1104:02
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 011 0 40.08 0425:38
23 Esa Lindell 011 0 30.33 0322:20
55 Thomas Harley 000 -1 20.00 0020:44
57 Tyler Myers 011 +2 00.00 3316:17
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 0 00.00 0314:47
6 Lian Bichsel 101 +3 30.07 1114:12
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 1239 .750 2.24 -0.76

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
67 Rickard Rakell 011 -3 50.21 1121:45
17 Bryan Rust 000 -3 60.47 0221:33
59 Egor Chinakhov 000 -2 70.43 0018:36
39 Anthony Mantha 101 -3 20.14 1117:17
19 Connor Dewar 000 +2 10.02 0015:35
18 Tommy Novak 000 0 20.13 0115:14
81 Ben Kindel 000 -1 60.17 0013:57
52 Noel Acciari 101 +2 20.13 1113:09
16 Justin Brazeau 000 0 20.10 7012:02
41 Ville Koivunen 000 -1 20.09 0011:36
2 Rutger McGroarty 000 -1 30.00 2010:41
25 Elmer Soderblom 011 +2 30.20 3008:48
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 123 -1 70.14 1124:47
58 Kris Letang 000 -2 20.00 0021:50
29 Parker Wotherspoon 011 +1 10.00 2017:11
49 Samuel Girard 000 0 10.00 0116:49
75 Connor Clifton 000 -1 40.00 1116:42
6 Ryan Shea 000 -1 10.00 0416:02
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 24420 .833 2.37 -1.63

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
22 Mavrik Bourque C +3.15 +2.20 +0.64 +0.29 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 19:02
21 Jason Robertson L +1.75 +1.45 +0.29 -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:03
96 Mikko Rantanen R +1.69 +1.45 +0.25 -0.15 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 18:57
6 Lian Bichsel D +1.67 +0.75 +0.04 +0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:12
14 Jamie Benn L +1.24 +1.25 +0.03 +0.09 -0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 12:08
10 Oskar Bäck C +0.93 +0.55 +0.05 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 12:27
57 Tyler Myers D +0.91 +0.70 0.00 -0.05 +0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 16:17
95 Matt Duchene C +0.84 +0.55 +0.30 -0.03 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 17:33
15 Colin Blackwell C +0.76 +0.70 +0.11 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 15:36
49 Justin Hryckowian C +0.71 +0.75 +0.15 -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:55
23 Esa Lindell D +0.67 +0.55 +0.22 -0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:20
25 Arttu Hyry R +0.53 0.00 +0.11 +0.33 0.00 +0.09 0.00 — 12:14
4 Miro Heiskanen D +0.52 +0.55 +0.05 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.22 — 25:38
5 Nils Lundkvist D +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.33 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 14:47
53 Wyatt Johnston C +0.06 0.00 +0.16 -0.07 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 19:01
11 Nathan Bastian R 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 4:02
58 Michael Bunting L -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.37 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 12:23
29 Jake Oettinger G -0.76 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.76 59:23
55 Thomas Harley D -0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 20:44

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
65 Erik Karlsson D +2.59 +2.00 +0.09 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 24:47
55 Noel Acciari C +1.43 +0.75 +0.09 +0.57 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 13:09
25 Elmer Soderblom L +1.34 +0.70 +0.13 +0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 8:48
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +1.01 +0.70 0.00 +0.50 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 17:11
19 Connor Dewar C +0.60 0.00 +0.01 +0.58 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 15:35
39 Anthony Mantha R +0.46 +0.75 +0.09 -0.25 -0.15 -0.01 +0.03 — 17:17
59 Egor Chinakhov R +0.31 0.00 +0.28 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:36
16 Justin Brazeau R +0.30 0.00 +0.07 +0.26 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 12:02
18 Tommy Novak C +0.21 0.00 +0.09 +0.16 0.00 -0.05 +0.01 — 15:14
67 Rickard Rakell R +0.20 +0.55 +0.14 -0.54 0.00 -0.02 +0.07 — 21:45
5 Ryan Shea D +0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.22 +0.15 0.00 +0.16 — 16:02
41 Ville Koivunen R +0.04 0.00 +0.06 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:36
58 Kris Letang D -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.19 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 21:50
17 Bryan Rust R -0.14 0.00 +0.31 -0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 21:33
81 Ben Kindel C -0.14 0.00 +0.11 -0.24 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:57
75 Connor Clifton D -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:42
49 Samuel Girard D -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:49
2 Rutger McGroarty R -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 10:41
74 Stuart Skinner G -1.63 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.63 58:32

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.