Ottawa SenatorsOTT 3–6 Final Florida PanthersFLA

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Ottawa SenatorsOTT	0	2	1	3	26
Florida PanthersFLA	5	1	0	6	29

Playoff odds, %	Change
OTT	-11.7
FLA	+0.0
DET	+4.4
CBJ	+2.2
PHI	+1.6
NYI	+1.5
BOS	+1.1
PIT	+0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 31, 2026 6:10 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:08	FLA	Noah Gregor (3) Seth Jones (21), Tomas Nosek (2) · snap xG 0.18	0–1 ▶
1:06	FLA	Mackie Samoskevich (8)PP Seth Jones (22), Matthew Tkachuk (16) · snap xG 0.18	0–2 ▶
9:09	FLA	Carter Verhaeghe (22)PP Matthew Tkachuk (17), Seth Jones (23) · snap xG 0.18	0–3 ▶
14:02	FLA	A.J. Greer (14) Eetu Luostarinen (18), Donovan Sebrango (4) · wrist xG 0.10	0–4 ▶
14:36	FLA	Carter Verhaeghe (23) Sam Bennett (30), Matthew Tkachuk (18) · snap xG 0.20	0–5 ▶
2nd Period
1:40	OTT	Drake Batherson (30) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.10	1–5 ▶
12:41	FLA	Matthew Tkachuk (13) Sam Bennett (31), Carter Verhaeghe (30) · snap xG 0.20	1–6 ▶
15:14	OTT	Jordan Spence (6) Tim Stützle (44), Michael Amadio (19) · wrist xG 0.02	2–6 ▶
3rd Period
4:29	OTT	Michael Amadio (13) Ridly Greig (18), Lassi Thomson (1) · snap xG 0.13	3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

OTT 27%Deserve to win73% FLA

OTT		FLA
2.85	Expected goals	4.86
3	Goals (no shootout)	6
1.36	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.67
59	Shot attempts	59
45	Unblocked attempts	52
26	Shots on goal	29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00	FLA	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced OTT 1.93–0.04 In xG over 10 minutes, 6:10 to 16:10 of the 1st; goals 3–0
14:36	OTT	Goalie	Goalie · Ullmark −2.7 goals saved 5 goals on 2.29 xG, 16 shots on goal
14:36	OTT	Goalie change	Goalie change · Reimer in for Ullmark 14:36 of the 1st; Ullmark had allowed 5 goals on 16 shots (2.29 xG)
3rd Period
15:24	OTT	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Reimer, down 6–3 With 4:36 left
17:20	OTT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.36–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:10 to 19:10 of the 3rd; neither team scored

Shot map

OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ FLA shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Ottawa Senators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
18	Tim Stützle	0	1	1	+1	6	0.22	2	0	21:05
12	Shane Pinto	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	20:48
24	Dylan Cozens	0	0	0	-1	5	0.43	4	1	20:21
8	Brady Tkachuk	0	0	0	-1	7	0.87	1	1	20:18
19	Drake Batherson	1	0	1	-1	3	0.22	0	0	18:16
71	Ridly Greig	0	1	1	+1	1	0.13	0	1	16:53
28	Claude Giroux	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	0	16:17
22	Michael Amadio	1	1	2	+1	2	0.27	0	0	14:20
20	Fabian Zetterlund	0	0	0	0	3	0.13	0	0	12:11
21	Nick Cousins	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	1	0	11:09
37	Warren Foegele	0	0	0	0	5	0.23	0	0	10:20
20	Lars Eller	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	1	10:08
Defense
10	Jordan Spence	1	0	1	-2	8	0.13	1	0	24:05
43	Tyler Kleven	0	0	0	+1	3	0.02	2	0	22:39
33	Nikolas Matinpalo	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	1	0	16:36
2	Artem Zub	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	3	0	15:43
60	Lassi Thomson	0	1	1	+2	4	0.06	1	1	13:49
26	Carter Yakemchuk	0	0	0	-1	4	0.01	0	1	13:42

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Linus Ullmark	16	5	11	.688	2.29	-2.71
James Reimer	13	1	12	.923	2.12	+1.12

Florida Panthers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
9	Sam Bennett	0	2	2	0	5	0.72	0	0	17:19
19	Matthew Tkachuk	1	3	4	0	8	0.76	1	0	17:13
23	Carter Verhaeghe	2	1	3	0	7	1.02	1	1	16:59
18	A.J. Greer	1	0	1	+1	5	0.54	0	0	16:49
27	Eetu Luostarinen	0	1	1	+1	3	0.17	0	2	15:51
92	Tomas Nosek	0	1	1	0	1	0.01	2	1	15:21
70	Jesper Boqvist	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	0	14:51
11	Mackie Samoskevich	1	0	1	+1	3	0.39	0	1	12:46
71	Luke Kunin	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	2	11:04
29	Cole Reinhardt	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	2	10:25
18	Vinnie Hinostroza	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	1	0	10:16
73	Noah Gregor	1	0	1	0	3	0.49	2	0	09:25
Defense
3	Seth Jones	0	3	3	+2	2	0.19	1	1	25:20
42	Gustav Forsling	0	0	0	0	4	0.08	2	0	24:26
5	Aaron Ekblad	0	0	0	0	4	0.22	0	0	20:49
73	Donovan Sebrango	0	1	1	+2	3	0.01	2	2	17:55
20	Mike Benning	0	0	0	-1	3	0.02	0	1	15:11
7	Dmitry Kulikov	0	0	0	-1	3	0.01	2	0	15:00

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Daniil Tarasov	26	3	23	.885	2.85	-0.15

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Ottawa Senators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
22 Michael Amadio R	+1.30	+1.30	+0.17	-0.18	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:20
47 James Reimer G	+1.12	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.12	41:57
60 Lassi Thomson D	+1.00	+0.55	+0.04	+0.32	0.00	0.00	+0.09	—	13:49
18 Tim Stützle C	+0.99	+0.70	+0.14	-0.12	+0.30	-0.03	0.00	—	21:05
71 Ridly Greig C	+0.79	+0.70	+0.09	-0.18	+0.15	+0.01	+0.03	—	16:53
20 Fabian Zetterlund L	+0.20	0.00	+0.08	+0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:11
89 Lars Eller C	+0.04	0.00	+0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	10:08
37 Warren Foegele L	-0.04	0.00	+0.15	-0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:20
19 Drake Batherson R	-0.05	+0.75	+0.14	-0.94	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:16
28 Claude Giroux R	-0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.34	+0.15	+0.03	-0.04	—	16:17
2 Artem Zub D	-0.25	0.00	+0.02	-0.11	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	15:43
7 Brady Tkachuk L	-0.31	0.00	+0.56	-0.90	0.00	+0.02	+0.01	—	20:18
12 Shane Pinto C	-0.45	0.00	0.00	-0.26	-0.15	+0.04	-0.08	—	20:48
58 Carter Yakemchuk D	-0.50	0.00	+0.01	-0.91	+0.38	0.00	+0.03	—	13:42
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D	-0.51	0.00	+0.01	-0.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:36
10 Jordan Spence D	-0.58	+0.75	+0.08	-1.41	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	24:05
21 Nick Cousins C	-0.62	0.00	+0.01	-0.59	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	11:09
43 Tyler Kleven D	-0.68	0.00	+0.01	-0.54	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	22:39
24 Dylan Cozens C	-0.83	0.00	+0.28	-1.16	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:21
35 Linus Ullmark G	-2.71	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.71	14:36

Florida Panthers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
19 Matthew Tkachuk L	+4.20	+2.55	+0.50	+1.01	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	17:13
23 Carter Verhaeghe C	+3.56	+2.05	+0.66	+0.80	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	16:59
3 Seth Jones D	+2.82	+1.95	+0.12	+0.70	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	25:20
9 Sam Bennett C	+2.54	+1.40	+0.47	+0.87	-0.15	-0.02	-0.03	—	17:19
10 A.J. Greer L	+1.96	+0.75	+0.35	+0.90	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	16:51
11 Mackie Samoskevich R	+1.93	+0.75	+0.26	+0.73	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	12:46
6 Donovan Sebrango D	+1.40	+0.55	+0.01	+0.76	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	17:55
5 Aaron Ekblad D	+1.38	0.00	+0.14	+1.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:49
27 Eetu Luostarinen C	+1.27	+0.70	+0.11	+0.39	0.00	-0.01	+0.08	—	15:51
18 Noah Gregor L	+1.18	+0.75	+0.32	+0.48	-0.38	0.00	0.00	—	9:25
92 Tomas Nosek L	+0.99	+0.55	+0.01	+0.29	+0.15	-0.04	+0.03	—	15:21
42 Gustav Forsling D	+0.90	0.00	+0.05	+1.00	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	24:26
70 Jesper Boqvist C	+0.27	0.00	+0.03	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	14:51
7 Dmitry Kulikov D	-0.09	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	15:00
40 Daniil Tarasov G	-0.15	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.15	60:00
71 Luke Kunin C	-0.22	0.00	0.00	-0.32	0.00	+0.02	+0.08	—	11:04
29 Cole Reinhardt L	-0.28	0.00	+0.02	-0.41	0.00	+0.01	+0.10	—	10:25
20 Mike Benning D	-0.29	0.00	+0.02	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:09
24 Vinnie Hinostroza C	-0.47	0.00	+0.09	-0.41	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	10:16

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.