hockeystats.io

Carolina HurricanesCAR 3–6 Final Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Sunday, April 5, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 201 3 28
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 213 6 31
Playoff odds, % Change
OTT +13.3
CAR +0.0
DET -5.9
PHI -1.9
NYI -1.7
WSH -1.6
CBJ -1.4
BOS -0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 5, 2026 4:30 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:22 CAR Logan Stankoven (18)PP Nikolaj Ehlers (41), Jackson Blake (26) · snap xG 0.19 1–0 ▶
7:17 OTT Dylan Cozens (27)PP Tim Stützle (46), Drake Batherson (35) · backhand xG 0.52 1–1 ▶
8:51 OTT Tim Stützle (33) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.21 1–2 ▶
19:40 CAR Andrei Svechnikov (29) Unassisted · poke xG 0.35 2–2 ▶
2nd Period
8:33 OTT Brady Tkachuk (21) Artem Zub (24), Ridly Greig (20) · tip-in xG 0.09 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
2:50 OTT Shane Pinto (21)PP Fabian Zetterlund (15) · wrist xG 0.23 2–4 ▶
6:32 OTT Brady Tkachuk (22) Ridly Greig (21), Dylan Cozens (28) · wrist xG 0.10 2–5 ▶
17:30 CAR Taylor Hall (16) Sean Walker (19), Jackson Blake (27) · backhand xG 0.15 3–5 ▶
19:03 OTT Claude Giroux (13)EN Shane Pinto (21), Jake Sanderson (38) · wrist xG 0.66 3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 22%Deserve to win78% OTT
CAROTT
2.35Expected goals5.70
3Goals (no shootout)6
1.79Expected goals, 5 on 52.60
64Shot attempts57
39Unblocked attempts45
28Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
14:30 OTT xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced CAR 1.69–0.15
In xG over 10 minutes, 5:30 to 15:30 of the 1st; goals 2–0
3rd Period
17:35 CAR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Andersen, down 5–3
With 2:25 left; OTT scored at 19:03 of the 3rd (3–6)

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots
Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:07) Sean Walker: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:20) Jake Sanderson: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:31) Artem Zub: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:34) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 1:44) Ridly Greig: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:53) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:01) Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:26) Shane Pinto: wrist, 182 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:30) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:49) Warren Foegele: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:34) Sean Walker: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:05) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:26) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 6:38) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 6:48) Tim Stützle: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 7:14) Cameron Crotty: wrist, 114 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:55) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:29) Drake Batherson: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:19) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:07) Sean Walker: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:55) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 13:37) Drake Batherson: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 14:14) Nick Cousins: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:54) Nick Cousins: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 16:55) Nick Cousins: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:56) William Carrier: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:06) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:07) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:15) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:22) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:36) Taylor Hall: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 1:17) Cameron Crotty: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:53) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:06) Brady Tkachuk: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:08) Brady Tkachuk: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:17) Seth Jarvis: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:54) Shane Pinto: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:02) Sean Walker: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 6:17) Lassi Thomson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 6:28) Ridly Greig: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:29) Drake Batherson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:01) Tim Stützle: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:06) Drake Batherson: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:26) Mark Jankowski: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:16) Taylor Hall: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:28) Sebastian Aho: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:05) Dylan Cozens: deflected, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:57) Jordan Spence: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.29 (P2 12:59) Artem Zub: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:12) Claude Giroux: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 14:38) Eric Robinson: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:04) Eric Robinson: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:45) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:57) Nicolas Deslauriers: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:59) Logan Stankoven: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:40) Dylan Cozens: poke, 4 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 1:32) Drake Batherson: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:03) Nikolas Matinpalo: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:08) Drake Batherson: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:20) Mark Jankowski: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:40) Ridly Greig: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:31) Shane Pinto: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:36) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:38) Sean Walker: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:07) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:34) Mark Jankowski: bat, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:35) Jaccob Slavin: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:48) K'Andre Miller: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:45) Taylor Hall: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:28) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 180 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 17:43) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:50) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:00) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.66 (P3 18:05) Taylor Hall: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:46) Logan Stankoven: GOAL, snap, 19 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 5:22) Dylan Cozens: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.52 (P1 7:17) Tim Stützle: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 8:51) Andrei Svechnikov: GOAL, poke, 4 ft, xG 0.35 (P1 19:40) Brady Tkachuk: GOAL, tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:33) Shane Pinto: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 2:50) Brady Tkachuk: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:32) Taylor Hall: GOAL, backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 17:30) Claude Giroux: GOAL, wrist, 82 ft, xG 0.66 (P3 19:03)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 011 0 40.06 0117:53
24 Seth Jarvis 000 -1 40.22 1116:57
20 Sebastian Aho 000 -1 40.03 0016:27
37 Andrei Svechnikov 101 0 50.56 2016:12
77 Mark Jankowski 000 0 40.17 1016:06
53 Jackson Blake 022 -1 10.00 0015:14
71 Taylor Hall 101 -1 50.40 1015:09
50 Eric Robinson 000 -1 30.05 1014:44
22 Logan Stankoven 101 -1 50.40 1014:44
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 000 -1 00.00 3114:04
44 Nicolas Deslauriers 000 -1 20.12 9013:46
28 William Carrier 000 0 10.03 4212:07
Defense
74 Jaccob Slavin 000 0 20.02 0221:23
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 0 60.09 0120:37
19 K'Andre Miller 000 -2 20.01 2219:33
26 Sean Walker 011 -2 80.06 1119:05
21 Alexander Nikishin 000 0 30.00 3017:31
4 Shayne Gostisbehere 000 +1 50.11 1017:10
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Frederik Andersen 30525 .833 4.20 -0.80

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
12 Shane Pinto 112 0 60.34 2317:10
18 Tim Stützle 112 +1 40.38 1116:56
22 Michael Amadio 000 0 00.00 2116:51
71 Ridly Greig 022 +2 30.19 4216:30
24 Dylan Cozens 112 +2 51.68 0016:16
8 Brady Tkachuk 202 +2 60.60 5115:35
21 Nick Cousins 000 -1 30.41 6214:40
28 Claude Giroux 101 +1 20.85 1014:01
19 Drake Batherson 011 0 80.43 1013:43
37 Warren Foegele 000 0 10.08 1212:45
20 Fabian Zetterlund 011 0 00.00 4012:43
20 Lars Eller 000 -1 10.00 1012:09
Defense
85 Jake Sanderson 011 +2 60.27 0226:47
2 Artem Zub 011 +2 30.05 0123:08
10 Jordan Spence 000 0 40.29 0119:57
5 Cameron Crotty 000 0 20.01 0316:20
33 Nikolas Matinpalo 000 0 10.01 0115:59
60 Lassi Thomson 000 0 20.11 0215:11
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Linus Ullmark 28325 .893 2.35 -0.65

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +1.04 +0.75 +0.36 +0.27 -0.30 0.00 -0.04 — 16:12
71 Taylor Hall L +0.93 +0.75 +0.26 -0.22 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 15:09
53 Jackson Blake R +0.84 +1.10 0.00 -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 15:14
22 Logan Stankoven C +0.76 +0.75 +0.26 -0.22 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 14:44
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +0.50 +0.70 +0.04 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:53
24 Seth Jarvis C +0.35 0.00 +0.14 +0.01 +0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:57
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D +0.15 0.00 +0.07 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:10
21 Alexander Nikishin D +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:31
26 Sean Walker D -0.02 +0.70 +0.04 -0.81 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:05
20 Sebastian Aho C -0.04 0.00 +0.02 -0.03 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 16:27
5 Jalen Chatfield D -0.16 0.00 +0.06 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:37
77 Mark Jankowski L -0.31 0.00 +0.11 -0.32 0.00 -0.08 -0.02 — 16:06
74 Jaccob Slavin D -0.33 0.00 +0.01 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:23
44 Nicolas Deslauriers L -0.39 0.00 +0.08 -0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:46
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.47 0.00 -0.02 +0.01 — 14:04
28 William Carrier L -0.48 0.00 +0.02 -0.62 0.00 +0.02 +0.10 — 12:07
50 Eric Robinson L -0.50 0.00 +0.03 -0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:44
19 K'Andre Miller D -0.75 0.00 +0.01 -0.86 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:33
31 Frederik Andersen G -0.80 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.80 58:32

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
24 Dylan Cozens C +3.68 +1.30 +1.09 +1.27 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 16:16
7 Brady Tkachuk L +3.03 +1.50 +0.39 +1.06 0.00 +0.05 +0.03 — 15:35
71 Ridly Greig C +2.48 +1.25 +0.12 +0.86 +0.15 -0.01 +0.10 — 16:30
18 Tim Stützle C +2.30 +1.45 +0.25 +0.50 0.00 +0.01 +0.09 — 16:56
12 Shane Pinto C +2.01 +1.45 +0.22 +0.17 0.00 +0.02 +0.15 — 17:10
28 Claude Giroux R +1.80 +0.75 +0.56 +0.33 +0.15 +0.04 -0.02 — 14:01
19 Drake Batherson R +1.30 +0.55 +0.28 +0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:43
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D +1.13 0.00 +0.01 +1.11 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:59
85 Jake Sanderson D +1.12 +0.55 +0.17 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 26:47
10 Jordan Spence D +0.89 0.00 +0.19 +0.88 -0.15 0.00 -0.03 — 19:57
2 Artem Zub D +0.88 +0.70 +0.03 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 23:08
22 Michael Amadio R +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 16:51
60 Lassi Thomson D +0.24 0.00 +0.07 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 15:11
21 Nick Cousins C +0.21 0.00 +0.26 0.00 -0.15 +0.01 +0.08 — 14:40
20 Fabian Zetterlund L +0.17 +0.70 0.00 -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:43
5 Cameron Crotty D -0.23 0.00 +0.01 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 16:20
37 Warren Foegele L -0.47 0.00 +0.05 -0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 12:45
35 Linus Ullmark G -0.65 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.65 60:00
89 Lars Eller C -0.93 0.00 0.00 -0.89 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 12:09

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.