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Minnesota WildMIN 6–5 Final/OT Nashville PredatorsNSH

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Minnesota WildMIN 3111 6 43
Nashville PredatorsNSH 3110 5 35
Playoff odds, % Change
NSH -5.1
MIN +0.0
EDM +0.9
SEA +0.9
SJS +0.8
LAK +0.5
VGK +0.5
ANA +0.5
UTA +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 4, 2026 7:07 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:49 MIN Matt Boldy (30) Zach Bogosian (4), Joel Eriksson Ek (25) · wrist xG 0.13 1–0 ▶
3:39 MIN Matt Boldy (31)PP Quinn Hughes (51), Mats Zuccarello (24) · tip-in xG 0.07 2–0 ▶
9:26 NSH Filip Forsberg (24)PP Roman Josi (28), Jonathan Marchessault (6) · wrist xG 0.60 2–1 ▶
12:58 MIN Matt Boldy (32) Quinn Hughes (52), Brock Faber (24) · backhand xG 0.22 3–1 ▶
16:45 NSH Steven Stamkos (28)PP Filip Forsberg (23), Ryan O'Reilly (34) · slap xG 0.13 3–2 ▶
18:21 NSH Erik Haula (9) Jonathan Marchessault (7), Nick Perbix (6) · wrist xG 0.13 3–3 ▶
2nd Period
0:41 NSH Luke Evangelista (8) Steven Stamkos (15), Ryan O'Reilly (35) · wrist xG 0.13 3–4 ▶
16:06 MIN Yakov Trenin (5) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.10 4–4 ▶
3rd Period
15:14 MIN Vladimir Tarasenko (15) Jake Middleton (12), Danila Yurov (14) · wrist xG 0.02 5–4 ▶
15:48 NSH Roman Josi (11) Ryan O'Reilly (36), Steven Stamkos (16) · wrist xG 0.03 5–5 ▶
Overtime
4:14 MIN Jared Spurgeon (6) Matt Boldy (30), Kirill Kaprizov (38) · wrist xG 0.14 6–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

MIN 62%Deserve to win38% NSH
MINNSH
4.28Expected goals3.49
6Goals (no shootout)5
3.83Expected goals, 5 on 52.32
78Shot attempts62
61Unblocked attempts47
43Shots on goal35

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
0:39 NSH Deserve to win Deserve to win · NSH takes the lead, 63–37%
MIN had led since 2:25 of the 1st, by as much as 72%
0:41 MIN Goalie Goalie · Gustavsson −2.2 goals saved
4 goals on 1.82 xG, 15 shots on goal
3rd Period
19:00 MIN xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.20–0.16
In xG over 10 minutes, 12:10 of the 3rd to 2:10 of overtime; goals 1–1
Overtime
4:14 MIN Deserve to win Deserve to win · MIN takes the lead, 62–38%
NSH had led since 0:39 of the 2nd, by as much as 69%

Shot map

MIN shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Michael Bunting: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:09) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 1:20) Daemon Hunt: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:19) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:25) Steven Stamkos: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 2:50) Yakov Trenin: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 4:00) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:03) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:32) Matt Boldy: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 6:47) Matt Boldy: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:47) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:54) Michael Bunting: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:48) Michael McCarron: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:09) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:14) Roman Josi: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:24) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:48) Michael Bunting: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:52) Brock Faber: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:31) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:47) Erik Haula: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:49) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:06) Matt Boldy: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:54) Daemon Hunt: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:00) Roman Josi: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:32) Tyson Jost: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:56) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:00) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:19) Zach Bogosian: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:46) Roman Josi: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:17) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 0:39) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:52) Nick Perbix: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:55) Ryan Hartman: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 1:26) Michael McCarron: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:02) Matthew Wood: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:36) Nick Blankenburg: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:55) Jared Spurgeon: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:06) Nick Perbix: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:23) Roman Josi: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:32) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:31) Yakov Trenin: backhand, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:47) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 8:21) Roman Josi: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 8:50) Steven Stamkos: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:05) Steven Stamkos: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:08) Matt Boldy: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 9:22) Tyler Pitlick: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:18) Nico Sturm: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:23) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:15) Filip Forsberg: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:24) Kirill Kaprizov: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:00) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 15:03) Kirill Kaprizov: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:29) Marcus Johansson: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 16:21) Vinnie Hinostroza: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:46) Roman Josi: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:53) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 18:25) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:38) Jonathan Marchessault: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:56) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:10) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:57) Matt Boldy: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:48) Erik Haula: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 4:15) Roman Josi: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:30) Quinn Hughes: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:06) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:14) Matt Boldy: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:42) Joel Eriksson Ek: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 5:45) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 6:02) Vladimir Tarasenko: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:54) Danila Yurov: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 7:46) Michael McCarron: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:52) Matthew Wood: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:37) Brock Faber: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:09) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:05) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:33) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:23) Joel Eriksson Ek: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 13:33) Matt Boldy: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 13:53) Brock Faber: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:15) Danila Yurov: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:08) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:42) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:07) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:31) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 154 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:44) Yakov Trenin: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 17:09) Yakov Trenin: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:09) Brock Faber: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:11) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:13) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:28) Yakov Trenin: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:55) Yakov Trenin: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 18:57) Yakov Trenin: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:58) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 2:20) Matt Boldy: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 2:33) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 2:54) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (OT 3:52) Matt Boldy: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 1:49) Matt Boldy: GOAL, tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:39) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.60 (P1 9:26) Matt Boldy: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 12:58) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, slap, 32 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 16:45) Erik Haula: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 18:21) Luke Evangelista: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 0:41) Yakov Trenin: GOAL, backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:06) Vladimir Tarasenko: GOAL, wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:14) Roman Josi: GOAL, wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:48) Jared Spurgeon: GOAL, wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (OT 4:14)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Minnesota Wild

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Kirill Kaprizov 011 0 80.25 1124:43
36 Mats Zuccarello 011 0 40.22 0019:42
12 Matt Boldy 314 0 130.96 0019:02
38 Ryan Hartman 000 0 80.59 1218:54
14 Joel Eriksson Ek 011 -1 40.27 1016:57
13 Yakov Trenin 101 +2 81.01 4016:22
91 Vladimir Tarasenko 101 +2 60.36 1015:43
22 Danila Yurov 011 +2 20.15 3115:14
90 Marcus Johansson 000 0 20.11 0114:28
78 Nico Sturm 000 0 20.01 1109:27
19 Tyler Pitlick 000 0 20.01 4008:19
18 Vinnie Hinostroza 000 0 20.02 1008:09
Defense
43 Quinn Hughes 022 -1 40.03 0128:58
7 Brock Faber 011 0 60.10 1025:55
55 Jake Middleton 011 +2 00.00 2320:30
46 Jared Spurgeon 101 +2 20.15 4118:49
24 Zach Bogosian 011 0 20.01 1014:33
48 Daemon Hunt 000 0 30.02 1114:26
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Filip Gustavsson 35530 .857 3.49 -1.51

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
91 Steven Stamkos 123 -1 80.51 2020:00
9 Filip Forsberg 112 0 80.97 0019:53
90 Ryan O'Reilly 033 +1 10.12 0219:48
81 Jonathan Marchessault 022 0 30.25 0118:46
56 Erik Haula 101 0 30.40 2018:45
77 Luke Evangelista 101 +1 60.25 0017:09
47 Michael McCarron 000 -2 30.07 2116:35
22 Cole Smith 000 -2 00.00 0114:46
58 Michael Bunting 000 -1 40.08 1114:28
17 Tyson Jost 000 -1 20.02 0110:54
71 Matthew Wood 000 0 30.11 3009:45
49 Reid Schaefer 000 0 10.03 2006:52
Defense
59 Roman Josi 112 0 100.58 0131:01
76 Brady Skjei 000 -1 10.00 1427:46
48 Nick Perbix 011 +1 30.07 0120:57
41 Nicolas Hague 000 +1 40.00 0119:15
2 Adam Wilsby 000 -1 00.00 1212:45
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 -3 20.02 0111:29
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 43637 .860 4.28 -1.72

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Minnesota Wild

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
12 Matt Boldy L +3.84 +2.95 +0.62 +0.30 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 19:02
43 Quinn Hughes D +3.06 +1.40 +0.02 +1.45 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 28:58
13 Yakov Trenin C +3.03 +0.75 +0.66 +1.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:22
7 Brock Faber D +2.56 +0.55 +0.07 +1.96 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 25:55
91 Vladimir Tarasenko R +2.54 +0.75 +0.23 +1.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:43
22 Danila Yurov R +2.05 +0.55 +0.10 +1.43 0.00 -0.06 +0.03 — 15:14
14 Joel Eriksson Ek C +1.00 +0.55 +0.18 +0.30 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 16:57
36 Mats Zuccarello R +0.87 +0.55 +0.14 +0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:42
24 Zach Bogosian D +0.79 +0.70 +0.01 +0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:33
46 Jared Spurgeon D +0.78 +0.75 +0.10 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:49
5 Jake Middleton D +0.75 +0.70 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 20:30
90 Marcus Johansson L +0.56 0.00 +0.07 +0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 14:28
38 Ryan Hartman R +0.41 0.00 +0.39 +0.13 -0.15 -0.04 +0.08 — 18:54
48 Daemon Hunt D +0.37 0.00 +0.02 +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:26
97 Kirill Kaprizov L +0.05 +0.55 +0.16 -0.54 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 24:43
18 Vinnie Hinostroza C +0.04 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:09
78 Nico Sturm C +0.04 0.00 +0.01 -0.05 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 9:27
19 Tyler Pitlick C -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:19
32 Filip Gustavsson G -1.51 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.51 64:10

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 Steven Stamkos C +2.63 +2.00 +0.33 +0.43 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 20:00
59 Roman Josi D +2.46 +1.45 +0.37 +0.49 +0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 30:59
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +2.35 +1.80 +0.08 +0.35 0.00 +0.02 +0.10 — 19:48
77 Luke Evangelista R +1.59 +0.75 +0.16 +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:09
9 Filip Forsberg L +0.61 +1.45 +0.63 -1.46 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:53
71 Matthew Wood R +0.46 0.00 +0.07 +0.38 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:45
76 Brady Skjei D +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 27:46
17 Tyson Jost C +0.16 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 0.00 -0.02 +0.07 — 10:54
49 Reid Schaefer L +0.13 0.00 +0.02 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:52
81 Jonathan Marchessault R -0.03 +1.25 +0.17 -1.50 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:46
56 Erik Haula L -0.13 +0.75 +0.26 -1.22 0.00 +0.08 0.00 — 18:45
83 Adam Wilsby D -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 12:45
48 Nick Perbix D -0.74 +0.55 +0.04 -1.34 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:57
58 Michael Bunting L -0.89 0.00 +0.05 -0.96 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:30
47 Michael McCarron C -0.93 0.00 +0.05 -1.04 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 16:35
37 Nick Blankenburg D -1.09 0.00 +0.01 -1.15 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:29
36 Cole Smith R -1.13 0.00 0.00 -1.29 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 14:46
41 Nicolas Hague D -1.35 0.00 0.00 -1.38 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:15
74 Juuse Saros G -1.72 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.72 63:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.