San Jose SharksSJS 2–4 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
San Jose SharksSJS	0	0	2	2	25
Colorado AvalancheCOL	0	2	2	4	42

Playoff odds, %	Change
SJS	-4.9
COL	+0.0
EDM	+0.9
UTA	+0.8
SEA	+0.7
LAK	+0.7
NSH	+0.7
VGK	+0.6
ANA	+0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 4, 2026 9:12 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
1:05	COL	Artturi Lehkonen (18) Valeri Nichushkin (20), Cale Makar (42) · deflected xG 0.62	0–1 ▶
15:47	COL	Artturi Lehkonen (19) Nathan MacKinnon (52), Valeri Nichushkin (21) · snap xG 0.18	0–2 ▶
3rd Period
0:43	SJS	Timothy Liljegren (1) Alexander Wennberg (27), John Klingberg (10) · slap xG 0.01	1–2 ▶
3:34	SJS	Philipp Kurashev (7) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.15	2–2 ▶
12:44	COL	Josh Manson (5) Valeri Nichushkin (22), Nathan MacKinnon (53) · slap xG 0.08	2–3 ▶
18:43	COL	Brock Nelson (29)EN Unassisted · backhand xG 0.46	2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SJS 11%Deserve to win89% COL

SJS		COL
2.08	Expected goals	5.65
2	Goals (no shootout)	4
1.72	Expected goals, 5 on 5	4.17
43	Shot attempts	78
36	Unblocked attempts	57
25	Shots on goal	42

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
1:02	SJS	Goalie	Goalie · Askarov +2.1 goals saved 0 goals on 2.12 xG, 16 shots on goal
1:10	COL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced SJS 2.04–0.12 In xG over 10 minutes, 16:20 of the 1st to 6:20 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
15:20	COL	Shortened bench	Shortened bench · 2 forwards sat Bardakov and Makar: no shift after 2:55 of the 3rd
15:20	COL	No shift	No shift · Brindley, 10:49 on the bench No shift from 2:55 to 16:07 of the 3rd; 11 shifts (9:01) before that
17:42	SJS	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Askarov, down 3–2 With 2:18 left

Shot map

SJS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

San Jose Sharks

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Macklin Celebrini	0	0	0	-1	7	0.43	0	2	20:14
21	Alexander Wennberg	0	1	1	0	3	0.03	0	0	20:12
27	William Eklund	0	0	0	-3	2	0.24	2	1	19:26
2	Will Smith	0	0	0	-2	3	0.08	0	0	17:41
44	Kiefer Sherwood	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	4	1	17:39
96	Philipp Kurashev	1	0	1	+2	2	0.33	0	0	17:09
73	Tyler Toffoli	0	0	0	-1	3	0.16	0	0	14:59
51	Collin Graf	0	0	0	0	4	0.16	0	0	14:22
77	Michael Misa	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	1	11:30
63	Zack Ostapchuk	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	10:16
23	Barclay Goodrow	0	0	0	0	5	0.28	2	1	09:42
81	Adam Gaudette	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	0	0	08:39
Defense
38	Mario Ferraro	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	20:12
27	Timothy Liljegren	1	0	1	+1	2	0.03	1	2	20:08
9	Dmitry Orlov	0	0	0	-1	6	0.23	3	1	19:29
3	John Klingberg	0	1	1	-3	2	0.00	3	3	19:13
73	Vincent Desharnais	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	3	16:48
85	Shakir Mukhamadullin	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	3	15:09

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Yaroslav Askarov	41	3	38	.927	5.05	+2.05

Colorado Avalanche

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
29	Nathan MacKinnon	0	2	2	+4	6	0.36	1	0	23:01
11	Brock Nelson	1	0	1	+1	7	0.84	1	0	21:43
43	Valeri Nichushkin	0	3	3	+4	6	0.24	3	1	20:44
62	Artturi Lehkonen	2	0	2	+2	8	1.69	1	0	17:35
18	Jack Drury	0	0	0	-2	2	0.36	0	0	17:20
17	Parker Kelly	0	0	0	-2	4	0.31	2	0	16:11
79	Ross Colton	0	0	0	0	6	0.12	2	0	14:33
22	Joel Kiviranta	0	0	0	-2	2	0.24	3	2	13:11
95	Victor Olofsson	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	0	0	13:06
54	Gavin Brindley	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	0	0	09:49
93	Zakhar Bardakov	0	0	0	0	4	0.33	1	0	04:18
16	Taylor Makar	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	03:25
Defense
7	Devon Toews	0	0	0	+2	2	0.15	0	0	25:56
8	Cale Makar	0	1	1	+1	7	0.20	1	0	24:51
84	Brent Burns	0	0	0	+1	8	0.14	1	1	18:35
42	Josh Manson	1	0	1	+2	6	0.14	0	1	18:28
70	Sam Malinski	0	0	0	-1	4	0.07	0	0	14:42
49	Samuel Girard	0	0	0	-1	1	0.12	0	0	14:32

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood	25	2	23	.920	2.08	+0.08

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

San Jose Sharks

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
30 Yaroslav Askarov G	+2.05	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.05	59:12
96 Philipp Kurashev C	+1.21	+0.75	+0.21	+0.26	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	17:09
37 Timothy Liljegren D	+0.77	+0.75	+0.02	-0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	20:08
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.11	—	15:09
5 Vincent Desharnais D	+0.13	0.00	0.00	-0.02	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	16:48
23 Barclay Goodrow C	+0.12	0.00	+0.18	-0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	9:42
63 Zack Ostapchuk C	-0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	+0.07	—	10:16
81 Adam Gaudette R	-0.09	0.00	+0.04	-0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	8:39
38 Mario Ferraro D	-0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.49	+0.15	0.00	+0.06	—	20:12
71 Macklin Celebrini C	-0.40	0.00	+0.28	-0.72	0.00	-0.02	+0.06	—	20:14
77 Michael Misa C	-0.44	0.00	0.00	-0.47	0.00	-0.02	+0.05	—	11:30
44 Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.68	0.00	+0.05	-0.57	-0.15	-0.02	+0.01	—	17:39
21 Alexander Wennberg C	-0.73	+0.70	+0.02	-1.27	-0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	20:12
73 Tyler Toffoli C	-0.73	0.00	+0.10	-0.79	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	14:59
72 William Eklund L	-0.77	0.00	+0.15	-0.95	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	19:26
51 Collin Graf R	-1.09	0.00	+0.10	-1.18	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	14:22
3 John Klingberg D	-1.86	+0.55	0.00	-2.67	+0.15	0.00	+0.11	—	19:13
2 Will Smith C	-2.02	0.00	+0.05	-2.04	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	17:41
9 Dmitry Orlov D	-2.04	0.00	+0.15	-2.22	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	19:29

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
62 Artturi Lehkonen L	+4.30	+1.50	+1.10	+1.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:35
13 Valeri Nichushkin R	+4.14	+1.95	+0.15	+2.00	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:44
29 Nathan MacKinnon C	+3.43	+1.25	+0.23	+1.94	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	23:01
8 Cale Makar D	+2.58	+0.55	+0.13	+1.55	+0.30	0.00	+0.05	—	24:51
11 Brock Nelson C	+1.86	+0.75	+0.55	+0.63	-0.15	+0.11	-0.02	—	21:43
42 Josh Manson D	+1.62	+0.75	+0.09	+0.73	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:28
7 Devon Toews D	+1.39	0.00	+0.10	+1.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	25:56
84 Brent Burns D	+0.93	0.00	+0.09	+0.69	+0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	18:35
20 Ross Colton C	+0.88	0.00	+0.08	+0.77	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	14:33
49 Samuel Girard D	+0.78	0.00	+0.08	+0.68	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	14:32
70 Sam Malinski D	+0.49	0.00	+0.05	+0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:42
95 Victor Olofsson L	+0.47	0.00	+0.11	+0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:06
18 Jack Drury C	+0.44	0.00	+0.23	+0.17	0.00	+0.04	0.00	—	17:20
16 Taylor Makar L	+0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	3:25
94 Joel Kiviranta L	+0.25	0.00	+0.16	+0.02	0.00	-0.01	+0.08	—	13:11
17 Parker Kelly C	+0.22	0.00	+0.20	+0.21	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	—	16:11
54 Gavin Brindley C	+0.12	0.00	+0.10	+0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:49
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G	+0.08	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.08	60:00
93 Zakhar Bardakov C	+0.03	0.00	+0.22	-0.02	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	4:18

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.