hockeystats.io

Florida PanthersFLA 1–6 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 001 1 34
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 222 6 28
Playoff odds, % Change
FLA -3.1
TBL +0.1
BOS +0.5
NYI +0.4
BUF +0.4
DET +0.4
MTL +0.4
WSH +0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 5, 2026 7:20 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:08 TBL Brandon Hagel (27) Victor Hedman (13) · tip-in xG 0.05 0–1 ▶
14:08 TBL Zemgus Girgensons (7) Pontus Holmberg (8), Yanni Gourde (15) · backhand xG 0.14 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
1:14 TBL Jake Guentzel (26)PP Darren Raddysh (35), Nikita Kucherov (62) · wrist xG 0.29 0–3 ▶
17:50 TBL Erik Cernak (1) Ryan McDonagh (6), Dominic James (8) · wrap-around xG 0.05 0–4 ▶
3rd Period
6:09 TBL Pontus Holmberg (9) Gage Goncalves (11), Oliver Bjorkstrand (17) · poke xG 0.11 0–5 ▶
9:50 FLA Mackie Samoskevich (6)PP Jesper Boqvist (5), Anton Lundell (24) · snap xG 0.10 1–5 ▶
15:41 TBL Oliver Bjorkstrand (10) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.12 1–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 61%Deserve to win39% TBL
FLATBL
3.12Expected goals2.50
1Goals (no shootout)6
2.01Expected goals, 5 on 51.50
67Shot attempts42
47Unblocked attempts36
34Shots on goal28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
1:14 FLA Goalie Goalie · Tarasov −2.2 goals saved
3 goals on 0.78 xG, 9 shots on goal
6:32 TBL Goalie Goalie · Vasilevskiy +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.05 xG, 24 shots on goal
3rd Period
6:09 FLA Goalie change Goalie change · Bobrovsky in for Tarasov
6:09 of the 3rd; Tarasov had allowed 5 goals on 25 shots (2.31 xG)
6:10 TBL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.30–0.05
In xG over 10 minutes, 16:10 of the 2nd to 6:10 of the 3rd; goals 2–0

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots
Erik Cernak: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:42) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:00) Matthew Tkachuk: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:20) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:30) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:46) Victor Hedman: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:00) Mackie Samoskevich: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:17) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:22) J.J. Moser: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:30) Scott Sabourin: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:55) Matthew Tkachuk: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:19) Niko Mikkola: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:22) A.J. Greer: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 4:29) Niko Mikkola: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:52) Victor Hedman: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:39) Uvis Balinskis: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:15) Jeff Petry: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:20) Jeff Petry: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:07) Sandis Vilmanis: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:49) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:56) Luke Kunin: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:58) Gustav Forsling: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 10:02) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:13) Darren Raddysh: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:36) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:55) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 14:02) Anton Lundell: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:50) Anton Lundell: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:00) Sam Bennett: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 16:04) Sam Bennett: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 17:16) Mackie Samoskevich: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 17:48) Mackie Samoskevich: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 17:54) A.J. Greer: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:26) Luke Kunin: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:56) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:29) Matthew Tkachuk: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:29) Darren Raddysh: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:12) A.J. Greer: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:53) Uvis Balinskis: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:00) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:40) Mackie Samoskevich: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:17) Uvis Balinskis: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:30) Uvis Balinskis: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 5:22) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 5:52) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:07) Mackie Samoskevich: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:32) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:33) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:35) Donovan Sebrango: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:22) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:59) Sam Bennett: deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.34 (P2 16:03) Curtis Douglas: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:41) Gage Goncalves: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 17:40) Erik Cernak: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:45) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:00) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:21) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 153 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:34) Jeff Petry: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:21) Gustav Forsling: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:24) Victor Hedman: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:16) Victor Hedman: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:19) Victor Hedman: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:41) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 5:58) Dominic James: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:58) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 6:04) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.28 (P3 6:08) Anton Lundell: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:44) Uvis Balinskis: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:49) Anton Lundell: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:59) Declan Carlile: slap, 168 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:41) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:59) Pontus Holmberg: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:57) Mackie Samoskevich: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:58) Jesper Boqvist: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 15:20) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:53) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:53) Brandon Hagel: GOAL, tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 2:08) Zemgus Girgensons: GOAL, backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:08) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.29 (P2 1:14) Erik Cernak: GOAL, wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:50) Pontus Holmberg: GOAL, poke, 6 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:09) Mackie Samoskevich: GOAL, snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 9:50) Oliver Bjorkstrand: GOAL, wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 15:41)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Sam Reinhart 000 -2 10.00 1020:49
15 Anton Lundell 011 -1 50.26 0020:47
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 -1 00.00 1017:10
9 Sam Bennett 000 -2 40.61 1016:02
79 Cole Schwindt 000 -1 10.00 1015:18
11 Mackie Samoskevich 101 0 80.60 1015:01
95 Sandis Vilmanis 000 -1 20.05 1014:57
19 Matthew Tkachuk 000 -1 50.23 2013:40
18 A.J. Greer 000 -2 40.25 1013:36
71 Luke Kunin 000 -1 20.15 3112:13
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 -1 40.14 1011:38
70 Jesper Boqvist 011 -1 20.22 2010:23
Defense
26 Uvis Balinskis 000 -1 70.34 1225:58
2 Jeff Petry 000 -3 50.02 0022:05
77 Niko Mikkola 000 -1 40.04 0120:45
42 Gustav Forsling 000 -2 80.20 0018:42
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 -1 40.02 1112:25
96 Mikulas Hovorka 000 -3 10.00 0011:27
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Daniil Tarasov 25520 .800 2.31 -2.69
Sergei Bobrovsky 312 .667 0.19 -0.81

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
38 Brandon Hagel 101 +1 10.05 0019:28
28 Zemgus Girgensons 101 +2 50.41 4018:20
86 Nikita Kucherov 011 +1 60.15 5117:54
29 Pontus Holmberg 112 +3 40.45 2017:44
59 Jake Guentzel 101 0 10.29 0017:07
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 112 +3 30.42 0216:01
17 Dominic James 011 +3 20.05 1015:23
37 Yanni Gourde 011 +1 10.00 2114:16
93 Gage Goncalves 011 +2 10.17 2013:15
49 Scott Sabourin 000 0 10.01 5209:23
37 Jack Finley 000 0 00.00 3106:42
42 Curtis Douglas 000 0 10.02 1106:13
Defense
81 Erik Cernak 101 +1 30.08 4123:13
27 Ryan McDonagh 011 +2 10.00 0322:59
43 Darren Raddysh 011 +1 40.10 2119:37
77 Victor Hedman 011 +2 60.27 0117:52
72 Declan Carlile 000 +2 10.00 2116:42
90 J.J. Moser 000 +1 10.01 1114:55
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 34133 .971 3.12 +2.12

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +1.69 +0.75 +0.39 +0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 15:01
26 Uvis Balinskis D +1.07 0.00 +0.22 +0.47 +0.30 0.00 +0.08 — 25:58
70 Jesper Boqvist C +0.89 +0.70 +0.14 +0.08 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 10:23
15 Anton Lundell C +0.56 +0.55 +0.17 -0.24 0.00 +0.08 0.00 — 20:47
77 Niko Mikkola D +0.36 0.00 +0.03 -0.03 +0.33 0.00 +0.03 — 20:45
71 Luke Kunin C +0.33 0.00 +0.10 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 12:13
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +0.21 0.00 +0.09 +0.15 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 11:38
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:10
19 Matthew Tkachuk L +0.15 0.00 +0.15 +0.29 -0.30 0.00 0.00 — 13:40
95 Sandis Vilmanis L +0.12 0.00 +0.03 +0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:57
42 Gustav Forsling D +0.10 0.00 +0.13 +0.08 -0.11 0.00 0.00 — 18:42
79 Cole Schwindt R +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.09 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 15:18
9 Sam Bennett C +0.09 0.00 +0.39 -0.27 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 16:02
6 Donovan Sebrango D -0.04 0.00 +0.01 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:25
10 A.J. Greer L -0.04 0.00 +0.16 -0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:36
2 Jeff Petry D -0.37 0.00 +0.01 -0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:05
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G -0.81 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.81 13:51
13 Sam Reinhart C -0.88 0.00 0.00 -0.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:49
96 Mikulas Hovorka D -0.96 0.00 0.00 -1.05 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 11:27
40 Daniil Tarasov G -2.69 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.69 45:59

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
29 Pontus Holmberg R +2.80 +1.45 +0.29 +1.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:44
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +2.23 +1.30 +0.28 +0.43 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 16:01
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G +2.12 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.12 59:56
93 Gage Goncalves C +1.29 +0.70 +0.11 +0.51 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 13:15
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +1.20 +0.75 +0.27 +0.36 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 18:20
43 Darren Raddysh D +1.17 +0.70 +0.07 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:37
17 Dominic James C +1.10 +0.55 +0.03 +0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 15:23
77 Victor Hedman D +0.84 +0.70 +0.17 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:52
27 Ryan McDonagh D +0.74 +0.70 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:59
38 Brandon Hagel L +0.61 +0.75 +0.03 -0.26 +0.15 -0.02 -0.04 — 19:28
37 Yanni Gourde C +0.50 +0.55 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.02 +0.07 — 14:16
86 Nikita Kucherov R +0.32 +0.55 +0.10 -0.12 -0.26 0.00 +0.05 — 17:54
90 J.J. Moser D +0.23 0.00 +0.01 +0.09 +0.11 0.00 +0.03 — 14:55
81 Erik Cernak D +0.23 +0.75 +0.05 -0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:13
59 Jake Guentzel C +0.19 +0.75 +0.19 -0.67 0.00 -0.06 -0.02 — 17:07
67 Declan Carlile D 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.13 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 16:42
62 Jack Finley C -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.20 0.00 +0.05 +0.05 — 6:42
46 Scott Sabourin R -0.15 0.00 +0.01 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 9:23
42 Curtis Douglas C -0.48 0.00 +0.01 -0.18 -0.38 +0.01 +0.05 — 6:13

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.