Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 5–2 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	0	3	2	5	32
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	1	1	0	2	18

Playoff odds, %	Change
CBJ	+8.5
TBL	-0.8
NYI	-2.3
PIT	-1.5
WSH	-0.8
OTT	-0.8
DET	-0.6
BOS	-0.6
PHI	-0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 10, 2026 6:10 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
13:38	TBL	Gage Goncalves (8) Victor Hedman (15), Nikita Kucherov (70) · tip-in xG 0.05	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:57	CBJ	Ivan Provorov (8) Denton Mateychuk (17), Charlie Coyle (35) · slap xG 0.04	1–1 ▶
6:27	CBJ	Conor Garland (10) Kent Johnson (14), Sean Monahan (20) · wrist xG 0.22	2–1 ▶
11:42	CBJ	Kirill Marchenko (24)PP Adam Fantilli (27), Zach Werenski (47) · slap xG 0.07	3–1 ▶
16:23	TBL	J.J. Moser (7) Anthony Cirelli (24) · wrist xG 0.01	3–2 ▶
3rd Period
4:00	CBJ	Conor Garland (11)PP Sean Monahan (21), Zach Werenski (48) · wrist xG 0.20	4–2 ▶
15:28	CBJ	Dante Fabbro (5)EN Elvis Merzlikins (2) · wrist xG 0.46	5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CBJ 80%Deserve to win20% TBL

CBJ		TBL
4.16	Expected goals	1.85
5	Goals (no shootout)	2
2.77	Expected goals, 5 on 5	0.78
52	Shot attempts	47
44	Unblocked attempts	29
32	Shots on goal	18

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
8:40	CBJ	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.14–0.02 In xG over 10 minutes, 19:10 of the 1st to 9:10 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
16:30	TBL	No shift	No shift · Geekie, 12:16 on the bench No shift from 0:39 to 18:43 of the 2nd; 5 shifts (3:36) before that
3rd Period
11:00	CBJ	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.16–0.04 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:20 to 12:20 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
15:19	TBL	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Vasilevskiy, down 4–2 With 4:41 left; CBJ scored at 15:28 of the 3rd (5–2)

Shot map

CBJ shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Columbus Blue Jackets

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
3	Charlie Coyle	0	1	1	+1	2	0.27	1	0	20:36
86	Kirill Marchenko	1	0	1	-1	4	0.21	0	0	19:00
19	Adam Fantilli	0	1	1	-1	8	0.82	2	0	18:39
27	Mason Marchment	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	2	0	18:33
23	Sean Monahan	0	2	2	+1	5	0.62	0	1	15:53
22	Boone Jenner	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	4	14:39
21	Isac Lundeström	0	0	0	+1	3	0.35	1	0	13:39
58	Danton Heinen	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	4	1	12:32
91	Kent Johnson	0	1	1	+1	1	0.10	0	0	12:32
24	Mathieu Olivier	0	0	0	+1	3	0.21	3	1	11:45
83	Conor Garland	2	0	2	+1	7	0.80	1	0	11:39
4	Cole Sillinger	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	3	1	10:42
Defense
8	Zach Werenski	0	2	2	0	3	0.04	0	1	22:59
9	Ivan Provorov	1	0	1	+1	4	0.05	1	1	22:05
78	Damon Severson	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	19:29
15	Dante Fabbro	1	0	1	-1	2	0.47	1	3	19:09
5	Denton Mateychuk	0	1	1	0	2	0.00	1	1	18:44
2	Jake Christiansen	0	0	0	+1	3	0.02	0	0	11:56

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Elvis Merzlikins	18	2	16	.889	1.85	-0.15

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	1	1	0	6	0.17	0	0	20:32
38	Brandon Hagel	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	0	19:34
21	Brayden Point	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	18:33
59	Jake Guentzel	0	0	0	-2	4	0.29	0	1	18:16
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	1	16:02
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	15:31
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	0	4	0.21	2	1	14:49
90	Corey Perry	0	0	0	+1	6	0.59	2	0	13:01
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	2	0	12:21
93	Gage Goncalves	1	0	1	0	3	0.05	3	1	11:22
94	Conor Geekie	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	09:31
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	1	0	09:14
Defense
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	-1	6	0.16	2	0	23:34
77	Victor Hedman	0	1	1	-1	4	0.14	0	1	22:11
72	Declan Carlile	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	6	0	20:35
27	Ryan McDonagh	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	2	3	20:21
90	J.J. Moser	1	0	1	+1	3	0.04	5	0	18:20
16	Steven Santini	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	0	09:21

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	4	27	.871	3.69	-0.31

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
83 Conor Garland R	+3.55	+1.50	+0.52	+1.52	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	11:39
23 Sean Monahan C	+2.93	+1.25	+0.40	+1.24	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	15:53
91 Kent Johnson C	+2.26	+0.70	+0.06	+1.52	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:32
9 Ivan Provorov D	+2.15	+0.75	+0.03	+1.34	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	22:05
5 Denton Mateychuk D	+1.94	+0.70	0.00	+1.23	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	18:44
19 Adam Fantilli C	+1.68	+0.70	+0.53	+0.51	0.00	-0.04	-0.02	—	18:39
8 Zach Werenski D	+1.53	+1.10	+0.03	+0.23	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	22:59
78 Damon Severson D	+1.24	0.00	0.00	+1.19	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	19:29
3 Charlie Coyle C	+0.95	+0.55	+0.18	+0.07	+0.15	-0.01	+0.02	—	20:36
17 Mason Marchment L	+0.94	0.00	+0.02	+0.89	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	18:33
15 Dante Fabbro D	+0.90	+0.75	+0.30	-0.28	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	19:09
24 Mathieu Olivier R	+0.90	0.00	+0.14	+0.74	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	11:45
2 Jake Christiansen D	+0.68	0.00	+0.02	+0.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:56
21 Isac Lundeström C	+0.68	0.00	+0.22	+0.47	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:39
90 Elvis Merzlikins G	+0.55	+0.70	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.15	59:29
86 Kirill Marchenko R	+0.52	+0.75	+0.14	-0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:00
38 Boone Jenner C	+0.20	0.00	+0.04	+0.12	-0.15	-0.03	+0.22	—	14:39
43 Danton Heinen L	+0.12	0.00	+0.08	+0.16	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	12:32
4 Cole Sillinger C	-0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.29	+0.15	+0.01	+0.03	—	10:42

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+0.87	+0.70	0.00	-0.08	+0.15	+0.05	+0.05	—	16:02
93 Gage Goncalves C	+0.38	+0.75	+0.03	-0.28	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	11:22
90 J.J. Moser D	+0.21	+0.75	+0.02	-0.37	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	18:20
77 Victor Hedman D	+0.04	+0.70	+0.09	-0.81	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	22:11
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+0.03	+0.55	+0.11	-0.61	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:32
38 Brandon Hagel L	+0.02	0.00	+0.03	-0.16	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	19:23
10 Corey Perry R	+0.01	0.00	+0.38	-0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:01
16 Steven Santini D	-0.19	0.00	0.00	-0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:21
29 Pontus Holmberg R	-0.27	0.00	+0.02	-0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:14
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	-0.31	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.31	59:51
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	-0.52	0.00	+0.07	-0.45	-0.15	+0.02	0.00	—	12:32
37 Yanni Gourde C	-0.53	0.00	0.00	-0.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:31
27 Ryan McDonagh D	-0.59	0.00	0.00	-0.72	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	20:21
21 Brayden Point C	-0.66	0.00	0.00	-0.62	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	18:33
59 Jake Guentzel C	-0.73	0.00	+0.19	-0.82	-0.15	+0.02	+0.03	—	18:16
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	-0.77	0.00	+0.14	-0.96	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:49
14 Conor Geekie C	-0.95	0.00	+0.01	-0.96	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:31
67 Declan Carlile D	-1.09	0.00	0.00	-1.07	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:35
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	-1.39	0.00	+0.11	-1.63	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	23:34

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.