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Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 4–3 Final Utah MammothUTA

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 022 4 23
Utah MammothUTA 201 3 29
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT +5.0
UTA -3.0
NYI -1.1
CBJ -1.0
PHI -0.8
SJS +0.5
WSH -0.5
EDM +0.5
BOS -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 14, 2026 8:26 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:06 UTA Dylan Guenther (32) Unassisted · snap xG 0.05 0–1 ▶
6:37 UTA Dylan Guenther (33)PP Unassisted · deflected xG 0.35 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
14:48 PIT Anthony Mantha (25)PP Erik Karlsson (39), Egor Chinakhov (12) · snap xG 0.23 1–2 ▶
17:26 PIT Tommy Novak (15) Parker Wotherspoon (18), Anthony Mantha (26) · wrist xG 0.10 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
1:24 PIT Bryan Rust (24)PP Rickard Rakell (18), Egor Chinakhov (13) · snap xG 0.17 3–2 ▶
4:17 UTA Ian Cole (3) Alexander Kerfoot (2), Kevin Stenlund (11) · wrist xG 0.14 3–3 ▶
8:03 PIT Noel Acciari (8) Parker Wotherspoon (19), Erik Karlsson (40) · snap xG 0.31 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 30%Deserve to win70% UTA
PITUTA
2.43Expected goals3.66
4Goals (no shootout)3
1.60Expected goals, 5 on 52.42
42Shot attempts68
33Unblocked attempts47
23Shots on goal29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:49 UTA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vejmelka, down 4–3
With 2:11 left

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots
Anthony Mantha: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:01) Alexander Kerfoot: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:42) Michael Carcone: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:29) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:11) Tommy Novak: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 5:16) Ville Koivunen: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:26) Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:52) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 6:32) Barrett Hayton: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:33) Bryan Rust: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:04) Logan Cooley: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:01) Tommy Novak: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:26) JJ Peterka: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 8:37) Nate Schmidt: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:28) Clayton Keller: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:04) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:48) Ville Koivunen: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 11:17) Tommy Novak: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 11:31) Clayton Keller: backhand, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:24) Kevin Stenlund: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:31) John Marino: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:17) Kris Letang: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:52) Bryan Rust: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:05) Erik Karlsson: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:30) Kris Letang: slap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:57) Ryan Shea: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:11) Dylan Guenther: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 19:25) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:48) Barrett Hayton: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:08) Jack McBain: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 0:10) Egor Chinakhov: tip-in, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:17) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:29) Nate Schmidt: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:13) Nate Schmidt: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:04) Lawson Crouse: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:30) Clayton Keller: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:17) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:34) Bryan Rust: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:36) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 12:39) Clayton Keller: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:52) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 13:21) Clayton Keller: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:32) Erik Karlsson: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:51) Erik Karlsson: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:32) Elmer Soderblom: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:42) Nate Schmidt: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:39) Logan Cooley: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 18:45) Dylan Guenther: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 19:02) JJ Peterka: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:09) Rickard Rakell: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 0:58) Jack McBain: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:01) Blake Lizotte: backhand, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:13) Ville Koivunen: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 3:30) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 3:36) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:37) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 5:11) Nick Schmaltz: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 5:18) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:27) Connor Clifton: snap, 180 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:04) Anthony Mantha: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:12) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:12) Dylan Guenther: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:27) Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 13:30) Michael Carcone: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:10) Rickard Rakell: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:08) Michael Carcone: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 17:30) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:29) Dylan Guenther: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:33) Kevin Stenlund: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 18:48) Dylan Guenther: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:52) Dylan Guenther: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:17) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 19:25) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 19:49) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, snap, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:06) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.35 (P1 6:37) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 14:48) Tommy Novak: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:26) Bryan Rust: GOAL, snap, 20 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 1:24) Ian Cole: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:17) Noel Acciari: GOAL, snap, 6 ft, xG 0.31 (P3 8:03)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 101 -1 50.28 0119:17
67 Rickard Rakell 011 -1 30.14 2018:57
52 Noel Acciari 101 +1 10.31 3017:24
39 Anthony Mantha 112 0 60.37 0017:09
59 Egor Chinakhov 022 -1 50.18 0016:44
46 Blake Lizotte 000 0 20.03 2215:48
19 Connor Dewar 000 0 00.00 1214:58
18 Tommy Novak 101 +1 40.38 0013:31
81 Ben Kindel 000 0 00.00 0113:30
25 Elmer Soderblom 000 0 10.06 1013:12
41 Ville Koivunen 000 +1 40.46 1112:28
85 Avery Hayes 000 0 00.00 2110:44
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 022 +2 50.13 0026:50
29 Parker Wotherspoon 022 +2 10.00 3221:35
58 Kris Letang 000 -1 20.05 1020:37
6 Ryan Shea 000 -1 20.04 0218:37
75 Connor Clifton 000 -1 10.00 4412:50
7 Ilya Solovyov 000 -1 00.00 1111:06
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 29326 .897 3.66 +0.66

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
8 Nick Schmaltz 000 0 70.70 1024:25
11 Dylan Guenther 202 +1 90.81 2120:18
9 Clayton Keller 000 0 110.24 0020:13
67 Lawson Crouse 000 -1 10.05 6016:42
27 Barrett Hayton 000 -1 60.35 1015:09
92 Logan Cooley 000 0 20.20 0015:07
10 JJ Peterka 000 0 40.14 0014:39
82 Kevin Stenlund 011 +1 20.20 0012:41
22 Jack McBain 000 0 20.15 6010:28
53 Michael Carcone 000 -1 40.15 4010:21
14 Alexander Kerfoot 011 +1 20.08 1010:10
56 Kailer Yamamoto 000 0 00.00 2107:53
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 000 0 60.22 1027:07
52 MacKenzie Weegar 000 0 50.03 0221:15
88 Nate Schmidt 000 -2 40.16 3318:36
28 Ian Cole 101 +2 10.14 1116:44
5 Sean Durzi 000 +2 00.00 2015:53
6 John Marino 000 -2 20.05 1014:00
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 23419 .826 2.43 -1.57

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
39 Anthony Mantha R +2.00 +1.30 +0.24 +0.61 -0.15 -0.02 +0.02 — 17:09
18 Tommy Novak C +1.68 +0.75 +0.25 +0.72 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 13:31
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +1.27 +1.40 0.00 -0.51 +0.30 0.00 +0.08 — 21:35
41 Ville Koivunen R +1.21 0.00 +0.30 +0.86 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:28
65 Erik Karlsson D +0.93 +1.25 +0.08 -0.53 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 26:50
74 Stuart Skinner G +0.66 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.66 60:00
75 Connor Clifton D +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.16 — 12:50
55 Noel Acciari C +0.51 +0.75 +0.20 -0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:24
67 Rickard Rakell R +0.42 +0.70 +0.09 -0.52 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:57
17 Bryan Rust R +0.28 +0.75 +0.18 -0.74 +0.15 -0.01 -0.05 — 19:17
7 Ilya Solovyov D +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.37 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 11:06
59 Egor Chinakhov R +0.20 +1.10 +0.12 -0.99 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:44
25 Elmer Soderblom L -0.22 0.00 +0.04 -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:12
85 Avery Hayes R -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 10:44
81 Ben Kindel C -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.36 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 13:30
5 Ryan Shea D -0.53 0.00 +0.02 -0.76 +0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 18:37
19 Connor Dewar C -0.58 0.00 0.00 -0.53 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 14:58
58 Kris Letang D -0.68 0.00 +0.03 -0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:37
46 Blake Lizotte C -0.68 0.00 +0.02 -0.80 0.00 +0.02 +0.08 — 15:48

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Dylan Guenther R +2.18 +1.50 +0.53 +0.12 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 20:18
28 Ian Cole D +1.98 +0.75 +0.09 +1.26 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 16:44
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +1.63 0.00 +0.15 +1.35 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 27:07
15 Alexander Kerfoot C +1.20 +0.70 +0.05 +0.62 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 10:10
82 Kevin Stenlund C +1.17 +0.55 +0.13 +0.47 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 12:41
8 Nick Schmaltz C +1.04 0.00 +0.45 +0.66 0.00 +0.01 -0.08 — 24:25
50 Sean Durzi D +0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:53
52 MacKenzie Weegar D +0.89 0.00 +0.02 +0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 21:15
9 Clayton Keller R +0.59 0.00 +0.15 +0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:13
22 Jack McBain C +0.53 0.00 +0.10 +0.30 +0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 10:28
56 Kailer Yamamoto R +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 7:53
27 Barrett Hayton C +0.23 0.00 +0.23 +0.11 -0.15 +0.04 0.00 — 15:09
53 Michael Carcone L +0.17 0.00 +0.10 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 10:21
92 Logan Cooley C -0.11 0.00 +0.13 -0.26 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 15:07
67 Lawson Crouse L -0.19 0.00 +0.03 -0.06 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 16:42
77 JJ Peterka R -0.21 0.00 +0.09 -0.14 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:39
88 Nate Schmidt D -0.89 0.00 +0.10 -1.17 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 18:36
6 John Marino D -1.26 0.00 +0.03 -1.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:00
70 Karel Vejmelka G -1.57 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.57 57:30

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.