hockeystats.io

Florida PanthersFLA 2–6 Final Seattle KrakenSEA

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 101 2 25
Seattle KrakenSEA 312 6 25
Playoff odds, % Change
SEA +7.7
FLA -0.9
SJS -1.5
EDM -1.2
LAK -1.1
NSH -1.1
UTA -0.8
ANA -0.8
VGK -0.7

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 15, 2026 7:09 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:28 SEA Ben Meyers (7) Ryan Winterton (14), Frederick Gaudreau (15) · deflected xG 0.08 0–1 ▶
11:52 SEA Berkly Catton (6) Kaapo Kakko (16), Jamie Oleksiak (8) · wrist xG 0.25 0–2 ▶
12:07 FLA Vinnie Hinostroza (5) Luke Kunin (3), Jesper Boqvist (7) · wrist xG 0.13 1–2 ▶
18:24 SEA Ryan Winterton (4) Ben Meyers (8), Brandon Montour (19) · bat xG 0.22 1–3 ▶
2nd Period
3:20 SEA Kaapo Kakko (10) Vince Dunn (30), Berkly Catton (7) · wrist xG 0.14 1–4 ▶
3rd Period
10:07 SEA Bobby McMann (22)PP Kaapo Kakko (17), Eeli Tolvanen (22) · wrist xG 0.14 1–5 ▶
14:37 SEA Jamie Oleksiak (5) Bobby McMann (15), Jordan Eberle (26) · wrist xG 0.19 1–6 ▶
19:58 FLA Eetu Luostarinen (8) Gustav Forsling (21), Mackie Samoskevich (17) · backhand xG 0.04 2–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 54%Deserve to win46% SEA
FLASEA
3.13Expected goals2.90
2Goals (no shootout)6
2.12Expected goals, 5 on 52.28
68Shot attempts43
52Unblocked attempts34
25Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
19:56 SEA Deserve to win Deserve to win · SEA takes the lead, 60–40%
FLA had led since 0:57 of the 1st, by as much as 78%
2nd Period
3:20 FLA Goalie Goalie · Tarasov −2.2 goals saved
4 goals on 1.83 xG, 16 shots on goal
3rd Period
19:53 SEA Goalie Goalie · Daccord +2.1 goals saved
1 goal on 3.07 xG, 23 shots on goal

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SEA shoots
Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:42) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:49) Mackie Samoskevich: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:54) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.43 (P1 0:57) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:02) Luke Kunin: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:12) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:16) Brandon Montour: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:33) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:24) Bobby McMann: wrist, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:35) Ryan Winterton: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:27) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 6:21) A.J. Greer: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:56) Tomas Nosek: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:03) Aaron Ekblad: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:47) Mike Benning: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:59) Ryan Winterton: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:20) Ben Meyers: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 11:31) Kaapo Kakko: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 11:49) Kaapo Kakko: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:50) Chandler Stephenson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:29) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:40) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:06) Adam Larsson: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:52) Bobby McMann: tip-in, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:41) Anton Lundell: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 18:08) Ben Meyers: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 18:22) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:43) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:52) Jordan Eberle: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 19:56) Bobby McMann: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:08) Brandon Montour: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:58) Evan Rodrigues: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:49) Mackie Samoskevich: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:50) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:20) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:29) Anton Lundell: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 7:35) Anton Lundell: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:54) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 9:09) Anton Lundell: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 9:25) Evan Rodrigues: bat, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 9:38) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:10) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:30) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:33) Luke Kunin: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:13) Vince Dunn: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:30) Jared McCann: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:03) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:41) Luke Kunin: tip-in, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:48) Aaron Ekblad: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:25) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:24) Eeli Tolvanen: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 16:49) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:16) A.J. Greer: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:00) Mike Benning: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:55) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:46) Matthew Tkachuk: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:59) Mike Benning: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:08) Matty Beniers: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:21) Jared McCann: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:01) Vince Dunn: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:42) Eeli Tolvanen: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:58) Frederick Gaudreau: wrist, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:07) Jared McCann: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 5:12) Berkly Catton: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:55) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 7:48) A.J. Greer: wrist, 122 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:26) Kaapo Kakko: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 9:51) Vinnie Hinostroza: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:24) Eeli Tolvanen: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:41) Anton Lundell: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:02) Eetu Luostarinen: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:21) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:15) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:41) Luke Kunin: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:02) Eetu Luostarinen: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:50) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 19:53) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:57) Ben Meyers: GOAL, deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:28) Berkly Catton: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 11:52) Vinnie Hinostroza: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 12:07) Ryan Winterton: GOAL, bat, 5 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 18:24) Kaapo Kakko: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 3:20) Bobby McMann: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 10:07) Jamie Oleksiak: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 14:37) Eetu Luostarinen: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:58)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
15 Anton Lundell 000 0 60.43 0019:04
11 Mackie Samoskevich 011 +1 50.15 2118:21
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 0 80.73 2018:07
19 Matthew Tkachuk 000 -1 60.30 0017:29
17 Evan Rodrigues 000 0 60.40 0017:08
27 Eetu Luostarinen 101 0 70.42 0016:00
18 A.J. Greer 000 -2 40.09 2014:38
92 Tomas Nosek 000 -2 20.06 3013:21
70 Jesper Boqvist 011 -2 10.00 1011:41
29 Cole Reinhardt 000 -1 10.00 3011:34
71 Luke Kunin 011 -1 40.13 4110:43
18 Vinnie Hinostroza 101 -1 20.25 0009:35
Defense
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 +1 40.05 1122:46
42 Gustav Forsling 011 +1 60.02 2222:11
77 Niko Mikkola 000 -2 20.06 1118:54
7 Dmitry Kulikov 000 -2 00.00 2318:32
20 Mike Benning 000 -1 30.03 1017:24
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 -3 10.02 2015:32
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Daniil Tarasov 25619 .760 2.90 -3.10

Seattle Kraken

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
74 Bobby McMann 112 +1 40.20 2019:36
17 Eeli Tolvanen 011 0 30.16 2017:47
89 Frederick Gaudreau 011 +2 10.00 3017:22
10 Matty Beniers 000 +1 20.05 1016:37
9 Chandler Stephenson 000 0 20.01 1116:13
59 Ben Meyers 112 +1 30.37 1115:46
7 Jordan Eberle 011 +1 40.39 0014:20
26 Ryan Winterton 112 +1 30.39 0013:37
19 Jared McCann 000 0 30.26 0013:04
51 Shane Wright 000 0 00.00 2112:54
84 Kaapo Kakko 123 +1 40.49 0011:47
27 Berkly Catton 112 +1 30.28 0007:51
Defense
62 Brandon Montour 011 +1 30.03 0123:00
6 Adam Larsson 000 -1 10.02 2221:03
55 Ryan Lindgren 000 -1 10.00 0119:17
29 Vince Dunn 011 +1 40.06 0218:32
41 Ryker Evans 000 +3 00.00 2117:29
4 Jamie Oleksiak 112 +3 20.19 1415:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joey Daccord 25223 .920 3.13 +1.13

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +1.77 +0.55 +0.10 +1.11 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 18:21
42 Gustav Forsling D +1.62 +0.70 +0.02 +0.81 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:11
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +1.53 0.00 +0.48 +0.90 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:07
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +1.12 +0.75 +0.27 +0.10 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 16:00
17 Evan Rodrigues C +1.04 0.00 +0.26 +0.91 -0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 17:08
5 Aaron Ekblad D +0.59 0.00 +0.03 +0.68 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 22:46
71 Luke Kunin C +0.54 +0.70 +0.09 -0.14 -0.15 +0.02 +0.03 — 10:43
24 Vinnie Hinostroza C +0.54 +0.75 +0.16 -0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:35
15 Anton Lundell C +0.51 0.00 +0.28 +0.09 +0.15 +0.02 -0.02 — 19:04
19 Matthew Tkachuk L +0.32 0.00 +0.19 0.00 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:29
70 Jesper Boqvist C +0.06 +0.55 0.00 -0.44 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 — 11:41
7 Dmitry Kulikov D -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 18:32
20 Mike Benning D -0.40 0.00 +0.02 -0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:24
77 Niko Mikkola D -0.84 0.00 +0.04 -0.93 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:54
6 Donovan Sebrango D -0.85 0.00 +0.01 -0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:32
29 Cole Reinhardt L -1.17 0.00 0.00 -1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:34
10 A.J. Greer L -1.37 0.00 +0.06 -1.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:38
92 Tomas Nosek L -1.40 0.00 +0.04 -1.43 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:21
40 Daniil Tarasov G -3.10 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.10 59:54

Seattle Kraken

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
24 Jamie Oleksiak D +3.22 +1.30 +0.12 +1.60 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 15:45
84 Kaapo Kakko R +2.94 +2.15 +0.32 +0.48 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:47
26 Ryan Winterton C +2.06 +1.45 +0.25 +0.20 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:37
27 Berkly Catton C +2.00 +1.30 +0.18 +0.49 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 7:51
59 Ben Meyers C +1.92 +1.45 +0.24 +0.18 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 15:46
74 Bobby McMann C +1.79 +1.45 +0.13 +0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:36
41 Ryker Evans D +1.77 0.00 0.00 +1.59 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 17:29
89 Frederick Gaudreau C +1.38 +0.55 0.00 +0.86 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 17:22
29 Vince Dunn D +1.33 +0.70 +0.04 +0.34 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 18:32
35 Joey Daccord G +1.13 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.13 60:00
7 Jordan Eberle R +1.10 +0.55 +0.26 +0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 14:20
10 Matty Beniers C +0.28 0.00 +0.03 +0.26 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 16:37
20 Eeli Tolvanen R +0.15 +0.55 +0.10 -0.35 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:47
19 Jared McCann L -0.07 0.00 +0.17 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:04
62 Brandon Montour D -0.17 +0.55 +0.02 -0.61 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 23:00
6 Adam Larsson D -0.20 0.00 +0.01 -0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:03
9 Chandler Stephenson C -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 16:13
51 Shane Wright C -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 -0.06 +0.05 — 12:54
55 Ryan Lindgren D -1.39 0.00 0.00 -1.29 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:17

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.