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Calgary FlamesCGY 2–5 Final Detroit Red WingsDET

Monday, March 16, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Calgary FlamesCGY 110 2 27
Detroit Red WingsDET 041 5 25
Playoff odds, % Change
DET +6.2
CGY -0.0
OTT -1.5
BOS -1.1
CBJ -0.8
MTL -0.7
NYI -0.7
PHI -0.5
PIT -0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 16, 2026 4:53 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
17:35 CGY Morgan Frost (15) Matvei Gridin (6), Matt Coronato (17) · tip-in xG 0.06 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
1:03 DET Patrick Kane (11) Alex DeBrincat (34) · snap xG 0.19 1–1 ▶
5:06 DET Emmitt Finnie (12) Albert Johansson (7), Lucas Raymond (46) · backhand xG 0.26 1–2 ▶
6:37 DET Patrick Kane (12) Alex DeBrincat (35), J.T. Compher (13) · tip-in xG 0.06 1–3 ▶
7:23 CGY Matt Coronato (15) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.08 2–3 ▶
11:45 DET Moritz Seider (9)PP Alex DeBrincat (36), J.T. Compher (14) · snap xG 0.05 2–4 ▶
3rd Period
18:55 DET Dominik Shine (2)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.65 2–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CGY 28%Deserve to win72% DET
CGYDET
2.14Expected goals4.09
2Goals (no shootout)5
1.58Expected goals, 5 on 51.86
52Shot attempts51
39Unblocked attempts37
27Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
16:50 CGY Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Wolf, down 4–2
With 3:10 left; DET scored at 18:55 of the 3rd (2–5)

Shot map

CGY shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots
Joel Farabee: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 0:29) Hunter Brzustewicz: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:05) J.T. Compher: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 2:12) Moritz Seider: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:17) James van Riemsdyk: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:18) Justin Faulk: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 2:46) David Perron: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:58) Matt Coronato: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:20) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:40) J.T. Compher: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 4:42) Blake Coleman: wrist, 81 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:17) Morgan Frost: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 6:32) Martin Pospisil: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:43) Martin Pospisil: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:03) Patrick Kane: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:46) Joel Farabee: deflected, 143 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:07) Mikael Backlund: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:30) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:11) Matt Coronato: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 12:13) Patrick Kane: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 13:52) Ryan Strome: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:12) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 15:00) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 15:23) Yegor Sharangovich: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:51) Yegor Sharangovich: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:52) John Leonard: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:13) John Leonard: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:23) Matt Coronato: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:44) Morgan Frost: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:00) Jacob Bernard-Docker: slap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:42) Zayne Parekh: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:59) Matvei Gridin: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:16) Victor Olofsson: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:14) J.T. Compher: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:35) David Perron: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:26) Olli Maatta: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:35) Ryan Lomberg: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:02) Blake Coleman: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:11) Joel Farabee: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:23) Mikael Backlund: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 6:26) James van Riemsdyk: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:07) Marco Kasper: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:08) Mikael Backlund: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 11:06) Matt Coronato: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:31) Ryan Lomberg: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:43) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 14:57) Mikael Backlund: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:29) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:03) Matvei Gridin: tip-in, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:44) Moritz Seider: snap, 161 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:49) Alex DeBrincat: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 0:56) Olli Maatta: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:28) Joel Farabee: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:03) Zach Whitecloud: tip-in, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:30) Mikael Backlund: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:31) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 6:32) Emmitt Finnie: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 7:25) Emmitt Finnie: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 7:32) Marco Kasper: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:08) Patrick Kane: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:08) Zayne Parekh: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:37) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:46) Patrick Kane: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 14:03) Alex DeBrincat: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 14:16) Mikael Backlund: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:30) Justin Faulk: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:35) Matvei Gridin: wrist, 84 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:52) Morgan Frost: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:42) Patrick Kane: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:38) Morgan Frost: GOAL, tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:35) Patrick Kane: GOAL, snap, 17 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 1:03) Emmitt Finnie: GOAL, backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 5:06) Patrick Kane: GOAL, tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:37) Matt Coronato: GOAL, wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:23) Moritz Seider: GOAL, snap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:45) Dominik Shine: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.65 (P3 18:55)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Calgary Flames

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Blake Coleman 000 -1 30.14 2118:54
27 Matt Coronato 112 +1 80.42 0118:33
16 Morgan Frost 101 +1 50.41 0117:50
11 Mikael Backlund 000 -1 70.36 0017:45
92 Matvei Gridin 011 +1 30.10 1016:29
22 Ryan Strome 000 -3 20.03 0116:21
17 Yegor Sharangovich 000 -2 30.08 0013:53
86 Joel Farabee 000 -1 40.27 2213:44
95 Victor Olofsson 000 -2 10.03 0013:03
47 Connor Zary 000 0 20.00 3010:00
94 Ryan Lomberg 000 0 20.08 3009:45
76 Martin Pospisil 000 0 30.05 2009:39
Defense
3 Olli Maatta 000 -2 20.04 0123:22
7 Kevin Bahl 000 -2 10.00 5021:07
28 Zach Whitecloud 000 -1 20.01 2219:37
48 Hunter Brzustewicz 000 -2 10.01 0118:33
19 Zayne Parekh 000 +1 30.11 0217:25
44 Joel Hanley 000 +2 00.00 0117:01
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dustin Wolf 24420 .833 3.44 -0.56

Detroit Red Wings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
37 J.T. Compher 022 +1 30.35 0021:15
23 Lucas Raymond 011 +1 40.07 0020:35
93 Alex DeBrincat 033 +1 100.93 0020:03
88 Patrick Kane 202 +1 80.67 0019:24
58 Emmitt Finnie 101 +1 30.62 3017:35
16 David Perron 000 +1 30.12 3015:35
92 Marco Kasper 000 0 20.14 5014:46
21 James van Riemsdyk 000 0 20.15 0013:08
22 Mason Appleton 000 +1 00.00 4010:32
65 Dominik Shine 101 0 10.65 1009:24
43 John Leonard 000 -1 20.22 2209:10
15 Sheldon Dries 000 0 00.00 3108:23
Defense
72 Justin Faulk 000 +1 20.08 1322:04
53 Moritz Seider 101 +1 40.08 0220:35
8 Ben Chiarot 000 0 10.00 3220:06
77 Simon Edvinsson 000 +1 00.00 0119:35
20 Albert Johansson 011 +1 30.00 1016:30
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker 000 0 20.01 0215:31
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
John Gibson 27225 .926 2.14 +0.14

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Calgary Flames

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
27 Matt Coronato R +2.27 +1.30 +0.27 +0.70 0.00 -0.05 +0.05 — 18:33
16 Morgan Frost C +1.42 +0.75 +0.27 +0.30 0.00 +0.07 +0.03 — 17:50
92 Matvei Gridin R +1.04 +0.70 +0.06 +0.45 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:29
44 Joel Hanley D +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:01
19 Zayne Parekh D +0.54 0.00 +0.07 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:25
86 Joel Farabee L +0.17 0.00 +0.18 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 13:44
47 Connor Zary C +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.12 0.00 +0.05 -0.02 — 10:00
70 Ryan Lomberg L +0.13 0.00 +0.05 +0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:45
11 Mikael Backlund C +0.12 0.00 +0.23 -0.12 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 17:45
20 Blake Coleman L +0.01 0.00 +0.09 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:54
76 Martin Pospisil C -0.06 0.00 +0.03 -0.24 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 9:39
28 Zach Whitecloud D -0.25 0.00 +0.01 -0.23 -0.15 0.00 +0.12 — 19:37
7 Kevin Bahl D -0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:07
32 Dustin Wolf G -0.56 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.56 57:55
3 Olli Maatta D -0.65 0.00 +0.03 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 23:22
48 Hunter Brzustewicz D -0.73 0.00 +0.01 -0.62 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 18:33
22 Ryan Strome C -0.73 0.00 +0.02 -0.79 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:21
17 Yegor Sharangovich C -0.79 0.00 +0.05 -0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:53
95 Victor Olofsson L -0.83 0.00 +0.02 -0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:03

Detroit Red Wings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
93 Alex DeBrincat R +3.39 +2.10 +0.61 +0.67 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 20:03
88 Patrick Kane R +2.56 +1.50 +0.44 +0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:24
37 J.T. Compher L +1.93 +1.10 +0.23 +0.66 0.00 -0.06 0.00 — 21:15
58 Emmitt Finnie C +1.46 +0.75 +0.40 +0.35 0.00 -0.03 -0.02 — 17:35
53 Moritz Seider D +1.29 +0.75 +0.05 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 20:35
20 Albert Johansson D +1.01 +0.70 0.00 +0.16 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:30
23 Lucas Raymond L +1.01 +0.55 +0.04 +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 20:35
65 Dominik Shine R +0.80 +0.75 +0.42 -0.40 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 9:24
77 Simon Edvinsson D +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 19:35
57 David Perron L +0.47 0.00 +0.08 +0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:35
72 Justin Faulk D +0.47 0.00 +0.05 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:04
36 John Gibson G +0.14 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.14 59:49
43 John Leonard L -0.04 0.00 +0.14 -0.39 +0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 9:10
15 Sheldon Dries C -0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 8:23
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.36 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 15:31
21 James van Riemsdyk L -0.15 0.00 +0.10 -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:08
8 Ben Chiarot D -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.11 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 20:06
22 Mason Appleton C -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:32
92 Marco Kasper C -0.39 0.00 +0.09 -0.47 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:46

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.