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New York IslandersNYI 3–1 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
New York IslandersNYI 210 3 34
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 010 1 27
Playoff odds, % Change
NYI +6.2
TOR -0.0
CBJ -1.6
DET -0.9
BOS -0.8
PHI -0.6
MTL -0.5
PIT -0.5
OTT -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 17, 2026 6:09 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:15 NYI Brayden Schenn (13)PP Calum Ritchie (12), Mathew Barzal (43) · wrist xG 0.12 1–0 ▶
9:43 NYI Calum Ritchie (9)PP Mathew Barzal (44), Matthew Schaefer (29) · wrist xG 0.07 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
4:40 TOR Steven Lorentz (5) Bo Groulx (1) · wrist xG 0.09 2–1 ▶
11:57 NYI Emil Heineman (19) Tony DeAngelo (27), Mathew Barzal (45) · slap xG 0.18 3–1 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 71%Deserve to win29% TOR
NYITOR
3.67Expected goals2.39
3Goals (no shootout)1
1.97Expected goals, 5 on 51.58
67Shot attempts51
53Unblocked attempts43
34Shots on goal27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
18:33 TOR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Woll, down 3–1
With 1:27 left

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots
Matias Maccelli: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:01) Carson Soucy: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:46) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:07) Matthew Knies: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:36) Easton Cowan: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:43) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 7:26) Max Domi: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:00) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 9:15) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:18) Calum Ritchie: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 9:42) William Nylander: backhand, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:57) Matias Maccelli: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 10:16) William Nylander: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 10:30) Anders Lee: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:53) Kyle MacLean: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:12) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:33) John Tavares: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:24) Brandon Carlo: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:37) Anders Lee: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:07) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:11) Brayden Schenn: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:26) Ondrej Palat: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:54) Matias Maccelli: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:56) Calum Ritchie: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:17) Anders Lee: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:08) Jake McCabe: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:47) Matthew Knies: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:48) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:19) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:23) Emil Heineman: poke, 14 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 19:47) Emil Heineman: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:48) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:52) Bo Horvat: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 1:39) William Nylander: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:45) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:11) Tony DeAngelo: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:37) John Tavares: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 2:48) Bo Horvat: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:34) Ondrej Palat: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:02) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 5:34) Jake McCabe: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:35) Anders Lee: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:07) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:31) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:51) Bo Horvat: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:26) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 11:35) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:48) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:21) Jacob Quillan: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:35) Brandon Carlo: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:11) Matthew Knies: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:37) John Tavares: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.27 (P2 14:54) Ondrej Palat: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 17:04) Bo Horvat: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:17) Philippe Myers: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:27) John Tavares: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:58) Easton Cowan: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:59) Emil Heineman: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:39) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:27) Philippe Myers: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:34) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:43) Steven Lorentz: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 2:52) Jacob Quillan: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:53) Kyle MacLean: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:23) Calum Ritchie: tip-in, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:46) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:53) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:48) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:09) Bo Horvat: tip-in, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:32) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:46) Carson Soucy: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:13) William Nylander: snap, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:22) Kyle MacLean: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:14) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:43) Adam Pelech: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:42) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:38) Philippe Myers: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:08) Jacob Quillan: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:29) Mathew Barzal: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:51) Max Domi: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 14:12) Brandon Carlo: snap, 167 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:58) Bo Horvat: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 15:32) Anders Lee: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:04) Anders Lee: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 16:54) Emil Heineman: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:32) Emil Heineman: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:37) Emil Heineman: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:42) Brayden Schenn: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 18:09) Max Domi: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 19:45) Max Domi: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:57) Matthew Knies: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:58) John Tavares: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:59) Brayden Schenn: GOAL, wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:15) Calum Ritchie: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:43) Steven Lorentz: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:40) Emil Heineman: GOAL, slap, 26 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 11:57)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Mathew Barzal 033 +1 40.14 0118:31
92 Simon Holmstrom 000 0 40.28 0018:21
14 Bo Horvat 000 +1 70.56 0117:54
72 Anders Lee 000 -1 60.43 1116:54
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 000 -1 30.25 0015:57
10 Brayden Schenn 101 0 40.30 0015:57
51 Emil Heineman 101 +1 70.87 2015:32
64 Calum Ritchie 112 -1 50.25 0015:06
11 Anthony Duclair 000 0 00.00 0013:36
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 20.00 0012:19
81 Ondrej Palat 000 0 40.12 2010:01
32 Kyle MacLean 000 0 30.09 1010:01
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 011 0 40.11 0022:57
6 Ryan Pulock 000 0 00.00 1120:25
77 Tony DeAngelo 011 +1 60.15 0120:22
3 Adam Pelech 000 0 20.01 2117:35
24 Scott Mayfield 000 -1 30.04 0016:19
7 Carson Soucy 000 0 30.06 0216:13
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ilya Sorokin 27126 .963 2.39 +1.39

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 William Nylander 000 -1 50.18 0122:35
91 John Tavares 000 -1 60.68 0020:16
89 Matthew Knies 000 0 40.21 2019:01
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -1 40.24 0018:19
11 Max Domi 000 0 50.42 0115:10
53 Easton Cowan 000 0 20.09 0013:30
29 Bo Groulx 011 +1 20.00 3012:13
18 Steven Lorentz 101 +1 30.20 1212:03
14 Nick Robertson 000 0 00.00 2011:49
81 Dakota Joshua 000 0 00.00 6011:26
26 Jacob Quillan 000 0 30.12 1110:48
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 +1 00.00 1010:32
Defense
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 0 50.08 2125:53
22 Jake McCabe 000 0 20.04 0222:28
25 Brandon Carlo 000 0 50.08 1019:05
44 Morgan Rielly 000 0 20.01 1218:21
28 Troy Stecher 000 0 00.00 0115:19
51 Philippe Myers 000 0 30.05 0113:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 34331 .912 3.67 +0.67

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
13 Mathew Barzal C +2.83 +1.80 +0.09 +0.89 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:31
51 Emil Heineman L +2.14 +0.75 +0.57 +0.83 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:32
77 Tony DeAngelo D +1.53 +0.70 +0.10 +0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:22
14 Bo Horvat C +1.45 0.00 +0.37 +1.01 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 17:54
30 Ilya Sorokin G +1.39 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.39 60:00
64 Calum Ritchie C +1.24 +1.45 +0.16 -0.48 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 15:06
10 Brayden Schenn C +1.09 +0.75 +0.19 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 15:57
48 Matthew Schaefer D +0.96 +0.55 +0.07 +0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:57
4 Carson Soucy D +0.62 0.00 +0.04 +0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:13
92 Simon Holmstrom R +0.58 0.00 +0.18 +0.20 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 18:21
11 Anthony Duclair L +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.12 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 13:36
32 Kyle MacLean C +0.05 0.00 +0.06 -0.16 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 10:01
24 Scott Mayfield D +0.04 0.00 +0.02 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:19
27 Anders Lee L -0.08 0.00 +0.28 -0.34 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 — 16:54
81 Ondrej Palat L -0.16 0.00 +0.08 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 10:01
3 Adam Pelech D -0.18 0.00 +0.01 -0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:35
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -0.33 0.00 +0.16 -0.52 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 15:57
53 Casey Cizikas C -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.15 -0.03 0.00 — 12:19
6 Ryan Pulock D -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:25

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
18 Steven Lorentz C +1.22 +0.75 +0.13 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 12:03
29 Bo Groulx C +0.92 +0.70 0.00 +0.21 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 12:13
60 Joseph Woll G +0.67 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.67 58:33
11 Max Domi C +0.65 0.00 +0.27 +0.34 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 15:10
23 Matthew Knies L +0.57 0.00 +0.13 +0.30 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 19:01
19 Calle Jarnkrok C +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.46 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 10:32
51 Philippe Myers D +0.29 0.00 +0.03 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:45
26 Jacob Quillan C +0.17 0.00 +0.08 +0.07 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 10:48
22 Jake McCabe D +0.05 0.00 +0.02 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:28
81 Dakota Joshua C -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.16 -0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 11:26
53 Easton Cowan R -0.11 0.00 +0.06 -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:30
89 Nick Robertson L -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 11:49
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.15 0.00 +0.05 -0.05 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:05
44 Morgan Rielly D -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 18:21
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.33 0.00 +0.05 -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 25:53
28 Troy Stecher D -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:19
88 William Nylander R -0.65 0.00 +0.12 -0.98 +0.15 -0.01 +0.07 — 22:35
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.74 0.00 +0.15 -0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:19
91 John Tavares C -0.76 0.00 +0.44 -1.05 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 20:16

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.