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Carolina HurricanesCAR 1–5 Final Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 010 1 29
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 221 5 30
Playoff odds, % Change
CBJ +7.6
CAR -0.0
NYI -1.8
OTT -1.3
DET -1.1
PIT -0.8
BOS -0.8
PHI -0.7
MTL -0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 17, 2026 6:09 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:25 CBJ Mason Marchment (16)PP Charlie Coyle (36), Adam Fantilli (29) · wrist xG 0.14 0–1 ▶
19:05 CBJ Charlie Coyle (17)PP Adam Fantilli (30), Zach Werenski (49) · wrist xG 0.18 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
14:05 CAR Andrei Svechnikov (25) Nikolaj Ehlers (33), Alexander Nikishin (17) · backhand xG 0.22 1–2 ▶
17:29 CBJ Danton Heinen (4) Charlie Coyle (37), Cole Sillinger (21) · wrist xG 0.26 1–3 ▶
18:03 CBJ Denton Mateychuk (11) Sean Monahan (22) · snap xG 0.03 1–4 ▶
3rd Period
7:38 CBJ Mathieu Olivier (13) Charlie Coyle (38), Cole Sillinger (22) · wrist xG 0.25 1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 38%Deserve to win62% CBJ
CARCBJ
2.43Expected goals3.15
1Goals (no shootout)5
1.71Expected goals, 5 on 52.56
63Shot attempts61
39Unblocked attempts42
29Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
7:38 CAR Goalie Goalie · Bussi −2.3 goals saved
5 goals on 2.70 xG, 25 shots on goal

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CBJ shoots
Zach Werenski: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:12) Nikolaj Ehlers: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:20) Jackson Blake: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 1:58) Jaccob Slavin: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 2:00) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:17) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:46) Ivan Provorov: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:26) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 7:30) Mike Reilly: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:39) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:21) Mason Marchment: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 8:26) Kent Johnson: tip-in, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:13) Conor Garland: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:26) Isac Lundeström: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 9:51) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:55) Mark Jankowski: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 11:11) Charlie Coyle: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 12:34) Conor Garland: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:14) Jaccob Slavin: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:43) Kent Johnson: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:22) Mathieu Olivier: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:39) Adam Fantilli: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:18) Charlie Coyle: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 18:33) Ivan Provorov: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:44) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:36) Erik Gudbranson: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 2:17) Conor Garland: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:20) Danton Heinen: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:46) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:26) Mathieu Olivier: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:38) Jaccob Slavin: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:08) Jaccob Slavin: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:13) Sean Walker: snap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:03) Boone Jenner: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:24) Isac Lundeström: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:02) Jaccob Slavin: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:19) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:29) Andrei Svechnikov: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:33) Boone Jenner: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:58) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:26) K'Andre Miller: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:46) Jalen Chatfield: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 15:49) Jordan Staal: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 16:30) Nicolas Deslauriers: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:02) Zach Werenski: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:37) Mathieu Olivier: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:58) Conor Garland: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:19) William Carrier: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:58) Conor Garland: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:41) Jordan Martinook: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:15) William Carrier: backhand, 43 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:57) Zach Werenski: snap, 91 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:51) Cole Sillinger: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:18) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 5:49) Zach Werenski: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:03) Isac Lundeström: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:11) Zach Werenski: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:17) Mike Reilly: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:56) Charlie Coyle: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:07) Damon Severson: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:14) Boone Jenner: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:49) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:20) Logan Stankoven: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:20) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 13:15) Taylor Hall: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:31) Taylor Hall: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:32) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 14:46) Zach Werenski: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:57) Damon Severson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:02) Cole Sillinger: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 16:18) Kirill Marchenko: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 16:46) Jackson Blake: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:07) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:13) Adam Fantilli: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:37) William Carrier: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 18:18) Mason Marchment: GOAL, wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 5:25) Charlie Coyle: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 19:05) Andrei Svechnikov: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 14:05) Danton Heinen: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 17:29) Denton Mateychuk: GOAL, snap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:03) Mathieu Olivier: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 7:38)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 000 -2 10.02 0017:02
24 Seth Jarvis 000 -1 40.26 0216:39
77 Mark Jankowski 000 0 40.21 2215:01
11 Jordan Staal 000 -1 10.17 4014:59
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 011 0 40.04 0014:46
53 Jackson Blake 000 0 30.25 1214:41
37 Andrei Svechnikov 101 0 40.31 3014:20
28 William Carrier 000 0 50.16 3013:34
22 Logan Stankoven 000 0 20.27 2013:29
48 Jordan Martinook 000 -2 40.12 1013:24
44 Nicolas Deslauriers 000 0 10.02 6012:31
71 Taylor Hall 000 -1 20.15 1210:50
Defense
19 K'Andre Miller 000 -1 50.03 2223:25
26 Sean Walker 000 -1 20.01 2320:51
74 Jaccob Slavin 000 0 70.08 0119:59
21 Alexander Nikishin 011 0 10.00 2219:18
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 -1 90.28 0118:44
6 Mike Reilly 000 -1 40.04 0016:09
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Brandon Bussi 30525 .833 3.15 -1.85

Columbus Blue Jackets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
86 Kirill Marchenko 000 -1 40.10 0319:15
19 Adam Fantilli 022 -1 30.10 0118:35
3 Charlie Coyle 134 +2 50.51 0018:31
27 Mason Marchment 101 0 20.27 0016:46
22 Boone Jenner 000 0 50.08 4016:25
4 Cole Sillinger 022 +2 20.27 1216:07
91 Kent Johnson 000 +1 30.04 0214:20
23 Sean Monahan 011 +1 10.00 0114:07
21 Isac Lundeström 000 0 30.18 1013:36
83 Conor Garland 000 +1 60.47 0111:45
24 Mathieu Olivier 101 +1 40.45 1111:27
58 Danton Heinen 101 +1 20.31 1011:14
Defense
8 Zach Werenski 011 +1 70.13 0222:10
9 Ivan Provorov 000 +1 20.02 0220:48
78 Damon Severson 000 +1 60.04 1320:40
5 Denton Mateychuk 101 +1 20.03 2117:18
44 Erik Gudbranson 000 0 40.14 0116:38
15 Dante Fabbro 000 0 00.00 0316:19
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jet Greaves 29128 .966 2.43 +1.43

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
21 Alexander Nikishin D +0.54 +0.55 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:18
77 Mark Jankowski L +0.50 0.00 +0.14 +0.31 0.00 -0.01 +0.06 — 15:01
28 William Carrier L +0.39 0.00 +0.10 +0.30 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:34
5 Jalen Chatfield D +0.35 0.00 +0.18 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:44
44 Nicolas Deslauriers L +0.35 0.00 +0.01 +0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:31
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +0.33 +0.70 +0.03 -0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:46
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +0.28 +0.75 +0.20 -0.61 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 14:23
74 Jaccob Slavin D +0.07 0.00 +0.05 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:56
6 Mike Reilly D -0.01 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:09
53 Jackson Blake R -0.03 0.00 +0.17 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 14:41
22 Logan Stankoven C -0.04 0.00 +0.17 -0.14 0.00 -0.05 -0.02 — 13:29
11 Jordan Staal C -0.15 0.00 +0.11 -0.22 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 14:59
24 Seth Jarvis C -0.76 0.00 +0.17 -0.40 -0.60 -0.01 +0.08 — 16:39
48 Jordan Martinook L -0.82 0.00 +0.08 -0.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:24
71 Taylor Hall L -0.86 0.00 +0.10 -1.04 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 10:50
19 K'Andre Miller D -1.07 0.00 +0.02 -1.20 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 23:25
20 Sebastian Aho C -1.18 0.00 +0.01 -1.15 0.00 -0.07 +0.02 — 17:02
26 Sean Walker D -1.43 0.00 0.00 -1.55 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 20:51
32 Brandon Bussi G -1.85 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.85 59:57

Columbus Blue Jackets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
3 Charlie Coyle C +4.36 +2.85 +0.33 +1.07 0.00 +0.11 0.00 — 18:31
4 Cole Sillinger C +2.75 +1.10 +0.18 +1.35 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 16:07
24 Mathieu Olivier R +2.27 +0.75 +0.30 +1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:27
8 Zach Werenski D +1.95 +0.55 +0.08 +1.09 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 22:10
73 Jet Greaves G +1.43 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.43 60:00
43 Danton Heinen L +1.32 +0.75 +0.20 +0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:14
5 Denton Mateychuk D +1.31 +0.75 +0.02 +0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:18
78 Damon Severson D +1.16 0.00 +0.02 +1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 20:40
83 Conor Garland R +1.10 0.00 +0.30 +0.47 +0.30 0.00 +0.03 — 11:45
23 Sean Monahan C +1.06 +0.70 0.00 +0.28 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 14:07
19 Adam Fantilli C +1.00 +1.25 +0.06 -0.29 0.00 -0.06 +0.03 — 18:34
9 Ivan Provorov D +0.77 0.00 +0.02 +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:48
17 Mason Marchment L +0.69 +0.75 +0.18 -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 16:46
91 Kent Johnson C +0.39 0.00 +0.02 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 14:20
38 Boone Jenner C +0.19 0.00 +0.05 +0.03 0.00 +0.10 0.00 — 16:25
21 Isac Lundeström C +0.15 0.00 +0.12 +0.04 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 13:36
86 Kirill Marchenko R -0.04 0.00 +0.07 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 19:15
15 Dante Fabbro D -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.37 +0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 16:19
44 Erik Gudbranson D -0.21 0.00 +0.09 -0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:38

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.