Thursday, March 19, 2026
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 19, 2026 5:27 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
NYR 30%Deserve to win 70% CBJ
NYR CBJ
2.46 Expected goals 4.30
3 Goals (no shootout) 6
1.98 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.23
46 Shot attempts 61
36 Unblocked attempts 48
25 Shots on goal 37
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
3rd Period
17:00
NYR
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Shesterkin, down 5–3
With 3:00 left; CBJ scored at 17:06 of the 3rd (3–6)
Shot map
NYR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → CBJ shoots
Cole Sillinger: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 0:43)
Adam Fantilli: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 1:14)
Adam Fantilli: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:14)
Kirill Marchenko: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:15)
Zach Werenski: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:24)
Adam Fantilli: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:33)
Mason Marchment: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 2:00)
Charlie Coyle: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:01)
Damon Severson: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 2:32)
Tye Kartye: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 2:58)
Mika Zibanejad: tip-in, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:07)
Adam Fantilli: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 4:13)
Zach Werenski: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 4:30)
Matthew Robertson: slap, 183 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:19)
Charlie Coyle: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:54)
Damon Severson: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:19)
Matthew Robertson: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:11)
J.T. Miller: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:09)
Mason Marchment: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 12:55)
Adam Fantilli: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:03)
Zach Werenski: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:18)
Braden Schneider: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:47)
Jaroslav Chmelar: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:53)
Adam Edstrom: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:54)
Taylor Raddysh: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:53)
Adam Fantilli: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 1:08)
Kirill Marchenko: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:13)
Will Cuylle: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:38)
Will Cuylle: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.33 (P2 1:41)
Zach Werenski: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 3:58)
Zach Werenski: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:59)
Taylor Raddysh: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:10)
Adam Edstrom: deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 6:14)
Adam Edstrom: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:14)
Boone Jenner: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:02)
Damon Severson: snap, 116 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:11)
Mathieu Olivier: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:52)
Will Cuylle: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:13)
Will Cuylle: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:21)
Matthew Robertson: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:24)
Gabe Perreault: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:56)
Mika Zibanejad: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:01)
Boone Jenner: wrist, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:32)
Kent Johnson: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:46)
Erik Gudbranson: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:52)
Adam Fox: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:05)
Isac Lundeström: snap, 124 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:25)
Vincent Trocheck: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:46)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:34)
Ivan Provorov: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:44)
Zach Werenski: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:57)
Vladislav Gavrikov: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:40)
Mason Marchment: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:45)
Matthew Robertson: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:24)
Mathieu Olivier: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:53)
Boone Jenner: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 1:03)
Denton Mateychuk: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:07)
Sean Monahan: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 3:15)
Cole Sillinger: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 6:11)
Kirill Marchenko: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:54)
Will Cuylle: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:26)
Adam Fantilli: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:55)
Mathieu Olivier: bat, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:22)
Mathieu Olivier: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:26)
Zach Werenski: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:44)
Cole Sillinger: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:51)
J.T. Miller: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:51)
Vladislav Gavrikov: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:55)
J.T. Miller: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 12:59)
Boone Jenner: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:50)
Will Borgen: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:54)
Tye Kartye: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 18:07)
Conor Sheary: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:25)
Mika Zibanejad: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:42)
Jonny Brodzinski: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:46)
Vincent Trocheck: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:41)
Isac Lundeström: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:33)
Conor Garland: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 19:01)
Mika Zibanejad: GOAL, snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:44)
Boone Jenner: GOAL, snap, 11 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 7:04)
Adam Fantilli: GOAL, tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 15:25)
Alexis Lafrenière: GOAL, tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 0:50)
Damon Severson: GOAL, snap, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:12)
Adam Fantilli: GOAL, wrist, 85 ft, xG 0.59 (P3 17:06)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
New York Rangers
Columbus Blue Jackets
Goalie
SA GA
SV SV%
xGA
GSAx
Jet Greaves
25 3 22
.880
2.46
-0.54
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
New York Rangers
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
16 Vincent Trocheck C
+1.49
+0.75
+0.14
+0.53
0.00
+0.05
+0.03
—
21:33
93 Mika Zibanejad C
+1.03
+1.30
+0.10
-0.38
0.00
+0.03
-0.02
—
23:40
23 Adam Fox D
+1.01
+0.70
+0.02
+0.46
-0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
22:29
13 Alexis Lafrenière L
+1.00
+1.45
+0.08
-0.51
0.00
-0.02
0.00
—
21:51
50 Will Cuylle L
+0.90
0.00
+0.35
+0.41
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
13:43
14 Taylor Raddysh R
+0.62
0.00
+0.10
+0.39
0.00
0.00
+0.13
—
13:54
17 Will Borgen D
+0.36
0.00
+0.01
+0.23
+0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
14:35
8 J.T. Miller C
0.00
0.00
+0.18
-0.11
0.00
-0.01
-0.06
—
18:37
94 Gabe Perreault R
-0.02
+0.55
+0.03
-0.62
0.00
-0.01
+0.02
—
19:20
44 Vladislav Gavrikov D
-0.04
0.00
+0.02
+0.10
-0.15
0.00
-0.02
—
24:57
24 Tye Kartye L
-0.04
0.00
+0.21
-0.11
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
11:27
43 Conor Sheary L
-0.05
0.00
+0.03
-0.13
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
12:45
49 Jaroslav Chmelar R
-0.14
0.00
+0.03
-0.32
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
7:23
12 Connor Mackey D
-0.22
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-0.15
0.00
+0.01
—
13:32
84 Adam Edstrom C
-0.27
0.00
+0.23
-0.70
+0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
8:21
22 Jonny Brodzinski C
-0.27
0.00
+0.03
-0.29
0.00
+0.01
-0.02
—
6:01
4 Braden Schneider D
-0.44
0.00
+0.01
-0.71
+0.15
0.00
+0.11
—
21:53
29 Matthew Robertson D
-0.88
0.00
+0.03
-1.01
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
15:21
31 Igor Shesterkin G
-1.28
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-1.28
59:44
Columbus Blue Jackets
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
8 Zach Werenski D
+3.86
+1.95
+0.39
+1.52
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
24:09
19 Adam Fantilli C
+2.47
+1.50
+0.88
+0.27
-0.15
-0.01
-0.02
—
17:43
38 Boone Jenner C
+1.74
+1.45
+0.27
+0.04
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
15:54
78 Damon Severson D
+1.66
+0.75
+0.18
+0.69
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
24:22
23 Sean Monahan C
+1.18
+0.70
+0.09
+0.35
0.00
-0.02
+0.06
—
13:15
21 Isac Lundeström C
+1.05
+0.75
+0.06
+0.20
0.00
-0.01
+0.05
—
15:15
4 Cole Sillinger C
+1.04
+0.70
+0.27
-0.01
0.00
+0.01
+0.07
—
15:40
83 Conor Garland R
+0.99
+0.75
+0.07
+0.19
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
7:12
86 Kirill Marchenko R
+0.95
+0.55
+0.09
+0.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
17:52
9 Ivan Provorov D
+0.70
+0.55
+0.01
+0.11
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
20:03
17 Mason Marchment L
+0.67
0.00
+0.28
+0.23
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
16:05
43 Danton Heinen L
+0.50
+0.70
0.00
-0.23
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
10:03
5 Denton Mateychuk D
+0.35
0.00
+0.01
+0.37
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
11:28
91 Kent Johnson C
+0.06
0.00
+0.05
+0.16
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
8:50
24 Mathieu Olivier R
+0.02
0.00
+0.08
-0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
14:59
3 Charlie Coyle C
0.00
0.00
+0.07
-0.08
0.00
-0.01
+0.02
—
23:17
73 Jet Greaves G
-0.54
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-0.54
59:01
15 Dante Fabbro D
-0.57
0.00
0.00
-0.62
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
16:27
44 Erik Gudbranson D
-0.65
0.00
+0.01
-0.61
-0.15
0.00
+0.10
—
17:35
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.