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Winnipeg JetsWPG 4–5 Final/SO Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Winnipeg JetsWPG 11200 4 25
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 21102 5 32
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT +4.2
WPG -2.0
NYI -1.0
CBJ -0.6
OTT -0.5
DET -0.5
PHI -0.5
SJS +0.4
NSH +0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 21, 2026 11:22 AM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:06 PIT Egor Chinakhov (15) Evgeni Malkin (37), Parker Wotherspoon (22) · wrist xG 0.14 0–1 ▶
2:02 PIT Rickard Rakell (14) Bryan Rust (29), Samuel Girard (10) · wrist xG 0.17 0–2 ▶
3:50 WPG Morgan Barron (11) Brad Lambert (3) · wrist xG 0.70 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
6:10 WPG Cole Koepke (6)SH Adam Lowry (14), Dylan DeMelo (15) · backhand xG 0.38 2–2 ▶
15:22 PIT Erik Karlsson (10) Parker Wotherspoon (23), Egor Chinakhov (15) · wrist xG 0.02 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
4:04 WPG Neal Pionk (3) Jonathan Toews (15), Gustav Nyquist (11) · wrist xG 0.01 3–3 ▶
8:36 WPG Brad Lambert (2) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.03 4–3 ▶
12:45 PIT Erik Karlsson (11) Bryan Rust (30), Sidney Crosby (34) · wrist xG 0.08 4–4 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
PIT Egor Chinakhov vs Connor Hellebuyck Saved
WPG Jonathan Toews vs Arturs Silovs Saved
PIT Sidney Crosby vs Connor Hellebuyck Goal
WPG Gustav Nyquist vs Arturs Silovs Saved
PIT Rickard Rakell vs Connor Hellebuyck Goal

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WPG 52%Deserve to win48% PIT
WPGPIT
3.31Expected goals3.20
4Goals (no shootout)4
2.71Expected goals, 5 on 52.27
60Shot attempts59
45Unblocked attempts47
25Shots on goal32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
12:10 WPG xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced PIT 1.30–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:50 to 12:50 of the 1st; goals 1–0
3rd Period
1:20 PIT No shift No shift · Shea, 28:43 on the bench
No shift after 11:17 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (8:45) before that

Shot map

WPG shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots
Adam Lowry: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 0:33) Tommy Novak: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 0:53) Ben Kindel: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:26) Brad Lambert: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:33) Egor Chinakhov: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:41) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:00) Dylan Samberg: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:07) Kyle Connor: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:08) Elias Salomonsson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:23) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:39) Brad Lambert: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:47) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 160 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:58) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:37) Isak Rosen: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:51) Cole Koepke: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:58) Adam Lowry: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 6:40) Cole Koepke: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:49) Kris Letang: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:35) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:36) Kyle Connor: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:54) Haydn Fleury: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:42) Connor Clifton: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:51) Bryan Rust: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 13:15) Bryan Rust: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 13:17) Samuel Girard: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:56) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:03) Elmer Soderblom: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:21) Bryan Rust: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:39) Connor Clifton: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:11) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:16) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:08) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:43) Adam Lowry: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 0:14) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:27) Alex Iafallo: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:32) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:21) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:40) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:41) Bryan Rust: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:56) Dylan DeMelo: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:02) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:17) Samuel Girard: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:13) Kris Letang: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:26) Haydn Fleury: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:33) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:52) Isak Rosen: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:46) Neal Pionk: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:54) Ben Kindel: wrist, 91 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:52) Josh Morrissey: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:03) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:35) Bryan Rust: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:55) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:24) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 17:26) Cole Perfetti: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 18:13) Gabriel Vilardi: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:36) Connor Dewar: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:59) Mark Scheifele: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:15) Bryan Rust: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:52) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:39) Kyle Connor: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:35) Kyle Connor: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:42) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:41) Ben Kindel: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:42) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:05) Kyle Connor: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:29) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:34) Egor Chinakhov: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:32) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:51) Kyle Connor: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 8:11) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:37) Neal Pionk: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:06) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:26) Ben Kindel: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:56) Alex Iafallo: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:26) Kyle Connor: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:09) Ben Kindel: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 0:05) Kyle Connor: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 0:15) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.11 (OT 0:27) Ben Kindel: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.22 (OT 0:43) Ben Kindel: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (OT 0:48) Bryan Rust: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 1:38) Sidney Crosby: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 3:21) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 4:31) Elias Salomonsson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 4:58) Egor Chinakhov: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 1:06) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 2:02) Morgan Barron: GOAL, wrist, 3 ft, xG 0.70 (P1 3:50) Cole Koepke: GOAL, backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.38 (P2 6:10) Erik Karlsson: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:22) Neal Pionk: GOAL, wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:04) Brad Lambert: GOAL, wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:36) Erik Karlsson: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:45)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
55 Mark Scheifele 000 -2 20.05 0124:28
81 Kyle Connor 000 -2 80.52 1023:49
9 Alex Iafallo 000 -1 20.05 3019:18
17 Adam Lowry 011 0 40.23 2018:16
13 Gabriel Vilardi 000 -1 50.18 0017:46
91 Cole Perfetti 000 0 40.30 1017:15
36 Morgan Barron 101 +1 10.70 1015:25
93 Brad Lambert 112 +2 40.15 0213:45
27 Isak Rosen 000 +1 30.13 1010:53
45 Cole Koepke 101 +1 30.55 1010:08
14 Gustav Nyquist 011 0 10.00 0008:44
19 Jonathan Toews 011 0 20.11 0008:03
Defense
44 Josh Morrissey 000 -1 40.05 1229:38
54 Dylan Samberg 000 +2 30.06 0225:23
57 Elias Salomonsson 000 0 30.06 3022:45
4 Neal Pionk 101 +1 30.04 1222:30
24 Haydn Fleury 000 -1 50.06 0214:51
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 -1 30.05 0111:23
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 32428 .875 3.20 -0.80

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
87 Sidney Crosby 011 -1 40.16 0020:47
71 Evgeni Malkin 011 +1 10.11 1019:44
17 Bryan Rust 022 -1 90.64 1018:49
59 Egor Chinakhov 112 +2 80.35 0217:39
67 Rickard Rakell 101 -1 30.33 1117:15
18 Tommy Novak 000 +2 30.18 0116:45
52 Noel Acciari 000 -1 20.00 2316:18
19 Connor Dewar 000 -1 10.09 3115:32
81 Ben Kindel 000 0 70.63 1013:58
25 Elmer Soderblom 000 -1 10.03 3113:31
39 Anthony Mantha 000 0 30.02 3012:22
16 Justin Brazeau 000 0 10.04 2010:28
Defense
58 Kris Letang 000 0 30.01 3126:13
65 Erik Karlsson 202 +1 60.46 0025:31
29 Parker Wotherspoon 022 0 30.02 2223:26
49 Samuel Girard 011 +1 20.09 0022:47
75 Connor Clifton 000 -1 20.03 7116:30
6 Ryan Shea 000 0 00.00 0108:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Arturs Silovs 25421 .840 3.31 -0.69

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
93 Brad Lambert C +2.38 +1.45 +0.10 +0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 13:45
4 Neal Pionk D +1.75 +0.75 +0.02 +0.85 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 22:30
36 Morgan Barron C +1.62 +0.75 +0.45 +0.40 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 15:25
17 Adam Lowry C +1.50 +0.70 +0.15 +0.58 0.00 +0.05 +0.02 — 18:16
45 Cole Koepke L +1.10 +0.75 +0.35 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:08
54 Dylan Samberg D +0.83 0.00 +0.04 +0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 25:23
91 Cole Perfetti C +0.65 0.00 +0.20 +0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:15
27 Isak Rosen R +0.64 0.00 +0.08 +0.58 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:53
19 Jonathan Toews C +0.63 +0.70 +0.07 -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:03
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +0.51 0.00 +0.12 +0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:46
14 Gustav Nyquist R +0.42 +0.55 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:44
24 Haydn Fleury D +0.33 0.00 +0.04 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 14:51
2 Dylan DeMelo D -0.13 +0.55 +0.03 -0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:23
57 Elias Salomonsson D -0.28 0.00 +0.04 -0.17 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 22:45
44 Josh Morrissey D -0.29 0.00 +0.03 -0.26 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 29:38
9 Alex Iafallo L -0.31 0.00 +0.03 -0.35 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:18
81 Kyle Connor L -0.42 0.00 +0.34 -0.76 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 23:49
55 Mark Scheifele C -0.73 0.00 +0.03 -0.79 0.00 +0.02 +0.01 — 24:28
37 Connor Hellebuyck G -0.80 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.80 65:00

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
65 Erik Karlsson D +2.22 +1.50 +0.30 +0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 25:31
59 Egor Chinakhov R +1.91 +1.30 +0.23 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:39
17 Bryan Rust R +1.63 +1.40 +0.41 -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:49
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +1.16 +1.25 +0.02 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 23:26
71 Evgeni Malkin C +1.10 +0.70 +0.07 +0.32 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:44
67 Rickard Rakell R +0.70 +0.75 +0.21 -0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:15
87 Sidney Crosby C +0.53 +0.55 +0.10 -0.31 +0.15 +0.05 -0.02 — 20:47
18 Tommy Novak C +0.46 0.00 +0.12 +0.25 +0.15 -0.05 -0.01 — 16:45
81 Ben Kindel C +0.29 0.00 +0.41 -0.06 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 13:58
49 Samuel Girard D +0.25 +0.55 +0.06 -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:47
5 Ryan Shea D +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:45
75 Connor Clifton D +0.12 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:30
39 Anthony Mantha R +0.03 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:22
16 Justin Brazeau R -0.04 0.00 +0.03 -0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:28
19 Connor Dewar C -0.11 0.00 +0.06 -0.21 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 15:32
25 Elmer Soderblom L -0.24 0.00 +0.02 -0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:31
55 Noel Acciari C -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 -0.08 +0.15 — 16:18
58 Kris Letang D -0.66 0.00 +0.01 -0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 26:13
37 Arturs Silovs G -0.69 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.69 65:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.