hockeystats.io

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 2–5 Final Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 011 2 14
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 122 5 44
Playoff odds, % Change
OTT +6.8
TOR -0.0
BOS -1.7
DET -1.5
MTL -1.0
NYI -0.8
CBJ -0.8
PHI -0.4
PIT -0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 21, 2026 6:22 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
14:58 OTT Tim Stützle (32)PP Thomas Chabot (24), Drake Batherson (34) · wrist xG 0.08 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
9:09 OTT Claude Giroux (12) Tyler Kleven (12), Jordan Spence (18) · backhand xG 0.07 0–2 ▶
17:53 OTT Warren Foegele (11) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.10 0–3 ▶
18:14 TOR John Tavares (25) Easton Cowan (13), Brandon Carlo (7) · wrist xG 0.15 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
4:52 TOR Easton Cowan (9) Simon Benoit (5), William Nylander (41) · wrist xG 0.45 2–3 ▶
9:41 OTT Michael Amadio (12) Jordan Spence (19), Shane Pinto (20) · wrist xG 0.12 2–4 ▶
13:11 OTT Ridly Greig (11) Dylan Cozens (27), Tyler Kleven (13) · backhand xG 0.17 2–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 15%Deserve to win85% OTT
TOROTT
2.19Expected goals5.29
2Goals (no shootout)5
1.40Expected goals, 5 on 53.34
33Shot attempts73
20Unblocked attempts67
14Shots on goal44

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
16:40 OTT xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.40–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 8:00 to 18:00 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
15:00 OTT xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.02–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 5:00 to 15:00 of the 3rd; goals 2–0

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots
Shane Pinto: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:28) John Tavares: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:49) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:16) Jordan Spence: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:05) Troy Stecher: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:23) William Nylander: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:58) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:38) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 7:17) Nick Robertson: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:12) William Nylander: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:37) William Nylander: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:29) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.30 (P1 11:00) Easton Cowan: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:37) John Tavares: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:42) Thomas Chabot: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:16) Brady Tkachuk: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 14:43) Lars Eller: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 16:36) Ridly Greig: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:07) Jordan Spence: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:09) Ridly Greig: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:17) Jordan Spence: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:58) Jordan Spence: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:59) Nick Cousins: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:12) Jordan Spence: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:47) Tim Stützle: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 1:57) Easton Cowan: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:35) John Tavares: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:36) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:44) Nikolas Matinpalo: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 3:12) Ridly Greig: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:42) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:22) Tim Stützle: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 6:04) Matthew Knies: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:29) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.30 (P2 6:32) Ridly Greig: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:14) Claude Giroux: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:08) Warren Foegele: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:20) Fabian Zetterlund: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 9:23) Fabian Zetterlund: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:38) Drake Batherson: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:50) Tim Stützle: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 10:46) Brady Tkachuk: deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:47) Shane Pinto: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:13) Shane Pinto: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:38) Lars Eller: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:27) Lars Eller: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:36) Jordan Spence: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:26) Claude Giroux: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:02) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:07) Michael Amadio: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 16:31) Bo Groulx: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 18:52) Bo Groulx: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 19:00) Shane Pinto: backhand, 127 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:15) Oliver Ekman-Larsson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:41) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:48) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:13) Claude Giroux: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:22) Simon Benoit: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:49) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:07) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:25) Claude Giroux: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 5:49) Tyler Kleven: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:01) Jordan Spence: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:22) Warren Foegele: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.26 (P3 8:00) Jordan Spence: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:39) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:04) Michael Amadio: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:19) Claude Giroux: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:35) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:51) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 125 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:21) Shane Pinto: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.59 (P3 16:03) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 16:15) Brady Tkachuk: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 16:30) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 17:03) Claude Giroux: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:35) Claude Giroux: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:59) Fabian Zetterlund: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:16) Fabian Zetterlund: deflected, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:49) Artem Zub: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:59) Artem Zub: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:13) Tim Stützle: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:58) Claude Giroux: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:09) Warren Foegele: GOAL, wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:53) John Tavares: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 18:14) Easton Cowan: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.45 (P3 4:52) Michael Amadio: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 9:41) Ridly Greig: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 13:11)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Matthew Knies 000 -2 30.14 2024:28
88 William Nylander 011 +2 50.23 1021:47
91 John Tavares 101 +2 50.33 0018:55
53 Easton Cowan 112 +1 40.52 1018:04
11 Max Domi 000 -1 00.00 0014:24
29 Bo Groulx 000 -2 30.27 2013:37
14 Nick Robertson 000 -1 10.05 0112:25
81 Dakota Joshua 000 -2 10.06 3010:47
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -1 20.37 0010:37
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 00.00 3010:30
26 Jacob Quillan 000 -1 00.00 1010:16
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 -1 00.00 0009:54
Defense
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 -1 30.07 2023:20
22 Jake McCabe 000 -1 20.00 1322:36
28 Troy Stecher 000 0 20.07 0021:19
25 Brandon Carlo 011 0 00.00 0018:18
44 Simon Benoit 011 -1 10.07 1117:12
51 Philippe Myers 000 -1 10.00 0113:09
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 44539 .886 4.71 -0.29

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Tim Stützle 101 0 50.42 0019:04
12 Shane Pinto 011 -1 60.88 0118:36
8 Brady Tkachuk 000 +2 70.68 3016:41
22 Michael Amadio 101 +1 30.37 0015:59
19 Drake Batherson 011 0 10.05 4015:27
24 Dylan Cozens 011 +2 40.57 2315:25
71 Ridly Greig 101 0 50.37 0015:07
28 Claude Giroux 101 +2 80.58 2013:13
37 Warren Foegele 101 +1 30.37 0112:43
20 Lars Eller 000 +1 30.20 2011:59
21 Nick Cousins 000 -2 10.04 1011:51
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 0 50.27 3009:31
Defense
72 Thomas Chabot 011 -1 50.12 1328:36
2 Artem Zub 000 -1 20.06 1224:07
10 Jordan Spence 022 +2 90.22 0019:51
43 Tyler Kleven 022 +2 40.06 2118:13
33 Nikolas Matinpalo 000 +1 10.05 1114:20
44 Dennis Gilbert 000 +1 10.00 0211:17
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Linus Ullmark 14212 .857 2.19 +0.19

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 John Tavares C +1.92 +0.75 +0.21 +0.86 +0.15 -0.05 0.00 — 18:55
53 Easton Cowan R +1.68 +1.45 +0.34 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:04
88 William Nylander R +0.95 +0.55 +0.15 +0.28 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 21:47
2 Simon Benoit D -0.02 +0.70 +0.05 -0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 17:12
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.07 +0.55 0.00 -0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:18
60 Joseph Woll G -0.14 0.00 — — +0.15 — — -0.29 59:34
18 Steven Lorentz C -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 10:30
28 Troy Stecher D -0.56 0.00 +0.05 -0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 21:19
81 Dakota Joshua C -0.62 0.00 +0.04 -0.65 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:47
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.67 0.00 0.00 -0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:54
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.69 0.00 +0.24 -0.76 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 10:37
89 Nick Robertson L -0.72 0.00 +0.03 -0.79 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:25
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.86 0.00 +0.04 -0.57 -0.30 0.00 -0.04 — 23:20
29 Bo Groulx C -1.02 0.00 +0.18 -1.11 0.00 -0.06 -0.02 — 13:39
51 Philippe Myers D -1.09 0.00 0.00 -1.10 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 13:09
26 Jacob Quillan C -1.12 0.00 0.00 -0.99 -0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 10:16
22 Jake McCabe D -1.12 0.00 0.00 -1.25 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:36
11 Max Domi C -1.24 0.00 0.00 -1.23 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 14:24
23 Matthew Knies L -1.51 0.00 +0.09 -1.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:28

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
28 Claude Giroux R +2.75 +0.75 +0.38 +1.37 +0.15 +0.06 +0.04 — 13:13
24 Dylan Cozens C +2.46 +0.70 +0.37 +1.26 0.00 +0.05 +0.08 — 15:25
10 Jordan Spence D +2.31 +1.25 +0.14 +0.94 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:51
43 Tyler Kleven D +2.02 +1.25 +0.04 +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 18:13
37 Warren Foegele L +2.02 +0.75 +0.24 +0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:43
72 Thomas Chabot D +1.82 +0.70 +0.08 +0.91 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 28:36
19 Drake Batherson R +1.52 +0.55 +0.03 +0.96 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:27
18 Tim Stützle C +1.48 +0.75 +0.27 +0.61 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:04
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D +1.40 0.00 +0.03 +1.29 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 14:20
89 Lars Eller C +1.39 0.00 +0.13 +1.09 +0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 11:59
22 Michael Amadio R +1.33 +0.75 +0.24 +0.34 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 15:59
7 Brady Tkachuk L +1.32 0.00 +0.44 +0.88 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 16:41
20 Fabian Zetterlund L +1.25 0.00 +0.18 +0.94 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 9:31
71 Ridly Greig C +1.08 +0.75 +0.24 +0.12 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:07
6 Dennis Gilbert D +0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.72 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 11:17
12 Shane Pinto C +0.59 +0.55 +0.57 -0.50 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 — 18:36
2 Artem Zub D +0.46 0.00 +0.04 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 24:07
35 Linus Ullmark G +0.19 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.19 60:00
21 Nick Cousins C -0.69 0.00 +0.02 -0.75 0.00 -0.01 +0.04 — 11:51

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.