Detroit Red WingsDET 5–2 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Friday, March 27, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Detroit Red WingsDET	3	0	2	5	20
Buffalo SabresBUF	0	1	1	2	30

Playoff odds, %	Change
DET	+10.4
BUF	-0.0
OTT	-2.8
BOS	-2.5
NYI	-1.6
CBJ	-1.0
PHI	-0.9
MTL	-0.7
PIT	-0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 27, 2026 7:04 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:02	DET	Alex DeBrincat (36)PP Moritz Seider (41), Dylan Larkin (28) · wrist xG 0.51	1–0 ▶
9:11	DET	Lucas Raymond (23)PP Moritz Seider (42) · snap xG 0.11	2–0 ▶
16:06	DET	Marco Kasper (8) Emmitt Finnie (15), James van Riemsdyk (14) · wrist xG 0.27	3–0 ▶
2nd Period
5:35	BUF	Tage Thompson (37) Peyton Krebs (25), Conor Timmins (7) · slap xG 0.14	3–1 ▶
3rd Period
15:46	DET	Jacob Bernard-Docker (1) Patrick Kane (31), Alex DeBrincat (40) · snap xG 0.11	4–1 ▶
16:25	BUF	Rasmus Dahlin (16) Tanner Pearson (7), Bowen Byram (27) · wrist xG 0.20	4–2 ▶
18:17	DET	Patrick Kane (13)EN Alex DeBrincat (41) · wrist xG 0.59	5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DET 37%Deserve to win63% BUF

DET		BUF
3.72	Expected goals	3.64
5	Goals (no shootout)	2
1.49	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.68
37	Shot attempts	68
30	Unblocked attempts	51
20	Shots on goal	30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
11:10	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced DET 1.40–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 3:20 to 13:20 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
11:48	BUF	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · BUF takes the lead, 61–39% DET had led since 4:02 of the 1st, by as much as 72%
19:16	DET	Goalie	Goalie · Gibson +2.1 goals saved 1 goal on 3.08 xG, 23 shots on goal
3rd Period
16:40	BUF	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Lyon, down 4–2 With 3:20 left; DET scored at 18:17 of the 3rd (5–2)

Shot map

DET shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Detroit Red Wings

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Dylan Larkin	0	1	1	0	3	0.40	1	0	23:14
37	J.T. Compher	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	2	21:18
23	Lucas Raymond	1	0	1	0	3	0.16	0	0	20:14
93	Alex DeBrincat	1	2	3	+1	9	1.11	0	0	18:56
18	Andrew Copp	0	0	0	+1	3	0.29	2	3	18:47
88	Patrick Kane	1	1	2	+1	2	0.67	0	0	18:01
92	Marco Kasper	1	0	1	0	2	0.40	1	0	14:05
58	Emmitt Finnie	0	1	1	0	5	0.51	0	0	13:02
16	David Perron	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	10:13
21	James van Riemsdyk	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	0	0	09:17
22	Mason Appleton	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	08:15
65	Dominik Shine	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	04:41
Defense
53	Moritz Seider	0	2	2	+1	1	0.00	1	3	29:48
77	Simon Edvinsson	0	0	0	+1	2	0.00	2	0	24:06
72	Justin Faulk	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	3	20:11
8	Ben Chiarot	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	2	17:55
20	Albert Johansson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	0	10:11
25	Jacob Bernard-Docker	1	0	1	0	1	0.11	1	0	09:46

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
John Gibson	30	2	28	.933	3.64	+1.64

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
72	Tage Thompson	1	0	1	0	12	0.87	0	1	21:16
89	Alex Tuch	0	0	0	+2	7	0.32	0	0	18:51
71	Ryan McLeod	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	18:26
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	-1	7	0.34	0	0	17:24
17	Jason Zucker	0	0	0	-1	9	0.49	1	0	17:04
6	Zach Benson	0	0	0	-3	2	0.11	0	0	16:55
9	Josh Norris	0	0	0	-1	4	0.40	4	1	16:38
91	Josh Doan	0	0	0	-1	2	0.12	2	0	15:18
19	Peyton Krebs	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	4	0	13:12
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	0	09:28
10	Sam Carrick	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	06:46
70	Tanner Pearson	0	1	1	+1	1	0.06	1	0	05:43
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	1	0	1	+1	8	0.45	0	0	23:30
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	-1	3	0.23	5	0	21:51
24	Bowen Byram	0	1	1	-1	4	0.11	3	1	21:17
25	Owen Power	0	0	0	-3	3	0.04	0	0	20:58
21	Conor Timmins	0	1	1	+1	2	0.01	1	2	14:30
8	Logan Stanley	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	2	1	12:05

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Alex Lyon	19	4	15	.789	2.84	-1.16

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
93 Alex DeBrincat R	+2.43	+2.00	+0.72	-0.27	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:56
58 Emmitt Finnie C	+1.67	+0.70	+0.33	+0.68	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	13:02
36 John Gibson G	+1.64	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.64	60:00
88 Patrick Kane R	+1.62	+1.45	+0.43	-0.39	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	18:01
53 Moritz Seider D	+1.52	+1.40	0.00	-0.18	+0.15	0.00	+0.15	—	29:48
21 James van Riemsdyk L	+1.42	+0.55	+0.02	+0.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:17
92 Marco Kasper C	+1.38	+0.75	+0.26	+0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:05
8 Ben Chiarot D	+0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	17:55
71 Dylan Larkin C	+0.14	+0.55	+0.26	-0.65	0.00	+0.05	-0.06	—	23:14
23 Lucas Raymond L	+0.14	+0.75	+0.10	-0.84	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	20:14
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D	+0.12	+0.75	+0.07	-0.53	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	9:46
18 Andrew Copp C	+0.10	0.00	+0.19	-0.27	0.00	+0.01	+0.17	—	18:47
77 Simon Edvinsson D	-0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.36	+0.30	0.00	-0.04	—	24:06
65 Dominik Shine R	-0.35	0.00	0.00	-0.40	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	4:41
72 Justin Faulk D	-0.63	0.00	0.00	-0.61	-0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	20:11
57 David Perron L	-0.70	0.00	+0.02	-0.72	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:13
37 J.T. Compher L	-1.02	0.00	+0.01	-1.25	+0.15	-0.01	+0.08	—	21:18
20 Albert Johansson D	-1.11	0.00	+0.01	-1.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:11
22 Mason Appleton C	-1.17	0.00	0.00	-1.02	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	8:15

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+2.50	+0.75	+0.29	+1.62	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	23:30
72 Tage Thompson C	+2.46	+0.75	+0.57	+1.24	-0.15	-0.02	+0.07	—	21:16
19 Peyton Krebs C	+1.79	+0.70	+0.01	+1.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:12
89 Alex Tuch R	+1.67	0.00	+0.21	+1.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:51
21 Conor Timmins D	+1.13	+0.55	+0.01	+0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	14:30
70 Tanner Pearson L	+1.07	+0.70	+0.04	+0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	5:43
17 Jason Zucker L	+1.04	0.00	+0.32	+0.75	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	17:04
4 Bowen Byram D	+0.92	+0.55	+0.07	+0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	21:17
22 Jack Quinn R	+0.67	0.00	+0.22	+0.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:24
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+0.25	0.00	+0.15	+0.14	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	21:51
64 Logan Stanley D	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.47	-0.30	0.00	+0.03	—	12:05
10 Sam Carrick C	+0.12	0.00	+0.01	+0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:46
29 Beck Malenstyn L	+0.11	0.00	+0.03	-0.05	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	9:28
9 Josh Norris C	+0.11	0.00	+0.26	-0.07	-0.15	+0.02	+0.05	—	16:38
71 Ryan McLeod C	+0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.20	0.00	-0.05	-0.06	—	18:26
25 Owen Power D	-0.31	0.00	+0.03	-0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:58
91 Josh Doan R	-0.50	0.00	+0.08	-0.56	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:18
6 Zach Benson L	-0.80	0.00	+0.07	-1.02	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:55
34 Alex Lyon G	-1.16	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.16	57:57

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.