Nashville PredatorsNSH 2–3 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Sunday, March 29, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH	0	1	1	2	31
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	0	1	2	3	28

Playoff odds, %	Change
NSH	-9.2
TBL	+0.0
LAK	+1.8
STL	+1.5
VGK	+1.4
SEA	+1.4
WPG	+1.3
SJS	+1.1
UTA	+0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 29, 2026 4:33 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
8:31	NSH	Joakim Kemell (1) Filip Forsberg (33), Justin Barron (8) · deflected xG 0.83	1–0 ▶
13:32	TBL	Jake Guentzel (35) Darren Raddysh (46), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (22) · wrist xG 0.27	1–1 ▶
3rd Period
4:33	TBL	Brandon Hagel (35) Jake Guentzel (44) · snap xG 0.27	1–2 ▶
4:53	NSH	Filip Forsberg (34) Fedor Svechkov (13), Adam Wilsby (12) · tip-in xG 0.04	2–2 ▶
6:52	TBL	Corey Perry (15) Jake Guentzel (45), Emil Lilleberg (7) · snap xG 0.66	2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 31%Deserve to win69% TBL

NSH		TBL
3.18	Expected goals	4.36
2	Goals (no shootout)	3
2.27	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.24
59	Shot attempts	63
45	Unblocked attempts	50
31	Shots on goal	28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
3:10	TBL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 2.63–0.05 In xG over 10 minutes, 17:00 of the 2nd to 7:00 of the 3rd; goals 2–1
4:33	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 63–37% NSH had led since 3:52 of the 1st, by as much as 81%
18:54	NSH	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Annunen, down 3–2 With 1:06 left

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
90	Ryan O'Reilly	0	0	0	-1	3	0.00	0	2	24:29
9	Filip Forsberg	1	1	2	+2	6	0.62	1	1	19:37
91	Steven Stamkos	0	0	0	-1	4	0.24	0	1	17:17
81	Jonathan Marchessault	0	0	0	0	4	0.43	2	0	17:16
17	Tyson Jost	0	0	0	-2	1	0.01	0	0	16:39
77	Luke Evangelista	0	0	0	-1	3	0.03	0	0	14:57
9	Fedor Svechkov	0	1	1	+1	2	0.04	1	0	14:55
68	Zachary L'Heureux	0	0	0	-1	5	0.36	1	0	14:24
56	Erik Haula	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	3	0	14:05
71	Matthew Wood	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	1	0	13:42
25	Joakim Kemell	1	0	1	+2	6	0.87	1	0	08:16
49	Reid Schaefer	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	2	0	06:26
Defense
59	Roman Josi	0	0	0	-3	8	0.09	0	2	27:05
76	Brady Skjei	0	0	0	-1	2	0.07	3	2	22:46
41	Nicolas Hague	0	0	0	-2	4	0.09	1	1	17:05
2	Adam Wilsby	0	1	1	+2	3	0.18	1	0	14:57
48	Nick Perbix	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	1	14:48
72	Justin Barron	0	1	1	+2	4	0.04	1	2	14:22

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Justus Annunen	28	3	25	.893	4.36	+1.36

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
38	Brandon Hagel	1	0	1	+1	15	1.08	0	1	22:20
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	0	0	0	3	0.32	0	0	20:59
59	Jake Guentzel	1	2	3	+3	7	0.57	0	0	18:46
21	Brayden Point	0	0	0	+1	7	0.76	0	1	18:06
93	Gage Goncalves	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	1	17:08
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	-1	2	0.07	3	0	16:08
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	-2	3	0.04	2	0	15:29
90	Corey Perry	1	0	1	+2	3	0.79	0	1	12:59
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	-1	4	0.43	1	0	11:54
20	Nick Paul	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	1	1	11:36
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	0	08:19
49	Scott Sabourin	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	05:54
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	1	1	+1	5	0.02	0	1	23:51
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	+1	2	0.01	1	0	20:10
27	Ryan McDonagh	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	3	19:06
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	1	1	+1	2	0.02	3	2	17:34
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	1	1	+1	3	0.06	1	1	15:52
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	2	1	15:49

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jonas Johansson	31	2	29	.935	3.18	+1.18

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
9 Filip Forsberg L	+2.90	+1.45	+0.40	+0.85	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	19:37
25 Joakim Kemell R	+2.22	+0.75	+0.56	+0.89	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	8:16
83 Adam Wilsby D	+1.82	+0.55	+0.12	+1.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:57
29 Justus Annunen G	+1.36	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.36	58:54
40 Fedor Svechkov C	+1.36	+0.70	+0.03	+0.67	0.00	-0.04	0.00	—	14:55
20 Justin Barron D	+1.33	+0.55	+0.03	+0.68	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	14:22
48 Nick Perbix D	+0.56	0.00	+0.02	+0.49	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:48
91 Steven Stamkos C	+0.32	0.00	+0.16	+0.21	-0.15	+0.08	+0.03	—	17:17
68 Zachary L'Heureux L	+0.27	0.00	+0.24	-0.12	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:24
90 Ryan O'Reilly C	+0.19	0.00	0.00	-0.10	+0.15	+0.06	+0.08	—	24:29
49 Reid Schaefer L	-0.29	0.00	0.00	-0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:26
81 Jonathan Marchessault R	-0.32	0.00	+0.28	-0.68	+0.15	0.00	-0.06	—	17:16
41 Nicolas Hague D	-0.61	0.00	+0.06	-0.70	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:05
77 Luke Evangelista R	-1.15	0.00	+0.02	-1.00	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	14:57
17 Tyson Jost C	-1.44	0.00	+0.01	-1.43	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	16:39
76 Brady Skjei D	-1.48	0.00	+0.05	-1.60	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:46
56 Erik Haula L	-1.51	0.00	0.00	-1.29	-0.15	-0.04	-0.04	—	14:05
71 Matthew Wood R	-1.52	0.00	+0.05	-1.39	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	13:42
59 Roman Josi D	-2.25	0.00	+0.06	-2.39	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	27:05

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
59 Jake Guentzel C	+4.90	+2.15	+0.37	+2.35	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	18:46
10 Corey Perry R	+2.92	+0.75	+0.51	+1.63	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:59
78 Emil Lilleberg D	+2.49	+0.55	+0.02	+1.69	+0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	17:34
43 Darren Raddysh D	+1.82	+0.70	+0.01	+1.23	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	23:51
38 Brandon Hagel L	+1.73	+0.75	+0.70	+0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	22:20
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+1.64	+0.55	+0.04	+1.01	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:52
90 J.J. Moser D	+1.26	0.00	+0.01	+1.23	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	20:10
21 Brayden Point C	+1.24	0.00	+0.49	+0.69	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:06
31 Jonas Johansson G	+1.18	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.18	60:00
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+0.36	0.00	+0.28	-0.01	+0.15	0.00	-0.06	—	11:54
20 Nick Paul L	+0.27	0.00	+0.05	+0.18	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	11:36
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+0.23	0.00	+0.21	+0.08	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	—	20:59
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.17	0.00	+0.03	+0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:19
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	+0.05	0.00	+0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	16:08
46 Scott Sabourin R	-0.21	0.00	0.00	-0.04	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	5:54
93 Gage Goncalves C	-0.31	0.00	+0.03	-0.39	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:08
27 Ryan McDonagh D	-0.87	0.00	0.00	-1.19	+0.15	0.00	+0.17	—	19:06
37 Yanni Gourde C	-1.40	0.00	+0.03	-1.40	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	15:29
81 Erik Cernak D	-1.48	0.00	+0.01	-1.41	-0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	15:49

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.