Sunday, March 29, 2026
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 29, 2026 6:37 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
DAL 39%Deserve to win 61% PHI
DAL PHI
2.38 Expected goals 3.01
1 Goals (no shootout) 2
1.61 Expected goals, 5 on 5 1.71
42 Shot attempts 52
31 Unblocked attempts 46
18 Shots on goal 30
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
6:10
DAL
No shift
No shift · Bunting, 37:42 on the bench
No shift after 16:08 of the 1st; 6 shifts (3:46) before that
Overtime
3:27
PHI
Deserve to win
Deserve to win · PHI takes the lead, 61–39%
DAL had led since 11:07 of the 1st, by as much as 74%
Shot map
DAL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → PHI shoots
Rasmus Ristolainen: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 0:13)
Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 0:24)
Adam Erne: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:53)
Denver Barkey: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:45)
Arttu Hyry: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:52)
Wyatt Johnston: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:19)
Jason Robertson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:09)
Noah Cates: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:08)
Nick Seeler: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:37)
Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 9:51)
Michael Bunting: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:10)
Wyatt Johnston: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 11:07)
Matt Duchene: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:27)
Matt Duchene: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 11:50)
Tyler Myers: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:06)
Owen Tippett: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:33)
Travis Konecny: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:06)
Michael Bunting: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 14:44)
Garnet Hathaway: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:12)
Jason Robertson: backhand, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:35)
Jamie Benn: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:52)
Tyler Myers: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:56)
Carl Grundstrom: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:31)
Rasmus Ristolainen: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:49)
Jason Robertson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:12)
Christian Dvorak: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 0:43)
Nick Seeler: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:58)
Matvei Michkov: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:20)
Jamie Drysdale: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:24)
Carl Grundstrom: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 4:26)
Thomas Harley: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:04)
Matvei Michkov: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:57)
Rasmus Ristolainen: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:07)
Noah Cates: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:08)
Travis Sanheim: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:56)
Mavrik Bourque: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:06)
Carl Grundstrom: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 12:29)
Trevor Zegras: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:30)
Matvei Michkov: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:41)
Carl Grundstrom: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:55)
Jason Robertson: backhand, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:47)
Justin Hryckowian: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:53)
Adam Erne: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:38)
Adam Erne: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:39)
Emil Andrae: wrist, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:48)
Mikko Rantanen: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:54)
Mikko Rantanen: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:00)
Travis Konecny: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 16:25)
Matvei Michkov: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 17:36)
Christian Dvorak: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:42)
Sean Couturier: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:58)
Jason Robertson: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:05)
Wyatt Johnston: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 19:07)
Sean Couturier: wrist, 132 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:11)
Carl Grundstrom: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:02)
Oskar Bäck: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:10)
Owen Tippett: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:49)
Nick Seeler: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:53)
Alex Bump: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:16)
Noah Cates: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:26)
Travis Sanheim: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:44)
Garnet Hathaway: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:54)
Luke Glendening: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:55)
Matvei Michkov: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:34)
Travis Sanheim: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:47)
Travis Konecny: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:06)
Mavrik Bourque: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:44)
Arttu Hyry: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:45)
Travis Konecny: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:29)
Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 18:39)
Travis Konecny: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:40)
Trevor Zegras: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 0:38)
Travis Konecny: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 1:07)
Owen Tippett: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 2:50)
Travis Konecny: GOAL, wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.39 (P2 9:48)
Arttu Hyry: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:53)
Trevor Zegras: GOAL, snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 3:27)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Dallas Stars
Philadelphia Flyers
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Dallas Stars
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
1 Casey DeSmith G
+1.01
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+1.01
63:27
58 Michael Bunting L
+0.92
0.00
+0.19
+0.58
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
3:46
25 Arttu Hyry R
+0.71
+0.75
+0.10
-0.20
0.00
+0.01
+0.05
—
12:20
53 Wyatt Johnston C
+0.50
0.00
+0.49
+0.36
-0.30
-0.04
-0.02
—
23:00
96 Mikko Rantanen R
+0.34
0.00
+0.18
+0.31
-0.15
0.00
0.00
—
21:24
73 Adam Erne L
+0.34
0.00
+0.10
+0.09
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
10:39
5 Nils Lundkvist D
+0.16
0.00
0.00
+0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
17:56
6 Lian Bichsel D
+0.07
0.00
0.00
+0.09
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
14:53
49 Justin Hryckowian C
+0.05
0.00
+0.04
-0.01
0.00
-0.02
+0.05
—
14:37
57 Tyler Myers D
+0.04
0.00
+0.01
+0.05
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
15:33
23 Esa Lindell D
-0.02
0.00
0.00
-0.12
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
23:01
15 Colin Blackwell C
-0.07
0.00
0.00
-0.06
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
13:25
95 Matt Duchene C
-0.09
0.00
+0.19
-0.25
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
17:20
14 Jamie Benn L
-0.12
0.00
+0.01
-0.15
0.00
-0.01
+0.02
—
14:14
55 Thomas Harley D
-0.12
0.00
+0.01
-0.19
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
25:09
10 Oskar Bäck C
-0.15
0.00
+0.02
-0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
14:12
22 Mavrik Bourque C
-0.16
0.00
+0.07
-0.25
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
18:02
4 Miro Heiskanen D
-0.23
0.00
0.00
-0.21
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
24:07
21 Jason Robertson L
-0.46
0.00
+0.12
-0.57
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
20:55
Philadelphia Flyers
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
11 Travis Konecny R
+2.24
+0.75
+0.52
+0.81
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
21:24
33 Samuel Ersson G
+1.93
+0.55
—
—
0.00
—
—
+1.38
63:27
55 Rasmus Ristolainen D
+1.28
+0.55
+0.10
+0.38
+0.15
0.00
+0.10
—
22:12
46 Trevor Zegras C
+1.25
+0.75
+0.15
+0.39
-0.15
+0.01
+0.10
—
20:17
91 Carl Grundstrom R
+0.77
0.00
+0.25
+0.52
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
12:18
22 Christian Dvorak C
+0.69
0.00
+0.22
+0.50
0.00
-0.03
0.00
—
19:58
39 Matvei Michkov R
+0.63
+0.70
+0.16
-0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
15:16
8 Cam York D
+0.63
+0.70
0.00
-0.18
+0.15
0.00
-0.04
—
24:12
74 Owen Tippett R
+0.37
0.00
+0.13
+0.25
0.00
+0.01
-0.02
—
18:03
6 Travis Sanheim D
+0.34
0.00
+0.08
+0.11
0.00
0.00
+0.15
—
23:19
9 Jamie Drysdale D
+0.21
0.00
0.00
+0.14
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
22:10
52 Denver Barkey C
+0.16
0.00
+0.08
+0.06
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
14:42
36 Emil Andrae D
-0.04
0.00
0.00
-0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
11:12
27 Noah Cates L
-0.16
0.00
+0.07
-0.24
0.00
+0.03
-0.02
—
16:45
20 Alex Bump L
-0.20
0.00
+0.02
-0.24
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
9:46
24 Nick Seeler D
-0.22
0.00
+0.03
-0.19
0.00
0.00
-0.06
—
16:08
19 Garnet Hathaway R
-0.37
0.00
+0.07
-0.53
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
11:41
41 Luke Glendening C
-0.48
0.00
+0.02
-0.52
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
12:27
14 Sean Couturier C
-0.54
0.00
+0.05
-0.44
-0.15
+0.02
-0.02
—
14:31
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.