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Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1–4 Final San Jose SharksSJS

Thursday, April 2, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 010 1 20
San Jose SharksSJS 211 4 25
Playoff odds, % Change
SJS +9.4
TOR +0.0
LAK -2.6
NSH -1.8
VGK -1.5
SEA -1.3
WPG -0.7
UTA -0.6
EDM -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 2, 2026 9:50 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:27 SJS Zack Ostapchuk (4) Barclay Goodrow (7), Dmitry Orlov (30) · wrist xG 0.03 0–1 ▶
17:43 SJS Collin Graf (20) Michael Misa (10), Tyler Toffoli (29) · wrist xG 0.11 0–2 ▶
2nd Period
1:42 SJS William Eklund (13) Alexander Wennberg (34), Kiefer Sherwood (10) · wrist xG 0.15 0–3 ▶
6:43 TOR John Tavares (29)PP Easton Cowan (16), William Nylander (46) · snap xG 0.17 1–3 ▶
3rd Period
19:03 SJS Adam Gaudette (17)EN William Eklund (32), Zack Ostapchuk (3) · wrist xG 0.91 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 52%Deserve to win48% SJS
TORSJS
2.21Expected goals3.03
1Goals (no shootout)4
1.54Expected goals, 5 on 51.47
55Shot attempts57
38Unblocked attempts41
20Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
1:42 TOR Goalie Goalie · Stolarz −2.2 goals saved
3 goals on 0.84 xG, 11 shots on goal
15:20 TOR No shift No shift · Ekman-Larsson, 29:11 on the bench
No shift after 1:26 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (7:03) before that
3rd Period
16:17 TOR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Stolarz, down 3–1
With 3:43 left
18:32 TOR Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Stolarz, down 3–1
With 1:28 left; SJS scored at 19:03 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SJS shoots
Igor Chernyshov: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:49) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 1:59) Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:37) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:03) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:30) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:03) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:06) Steven Lorentz: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 5:14) Nick Leddy: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:43) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:05) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:14) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 6:57) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:00) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:08) Nick Robertson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:55) Mario Ferraro: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:31) Max Domi: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 11:05) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:23) Dmitry Orlov: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:28) Steven Lorentz: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:05) Zack Ostapchuk: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 12:14) Nick Leddy: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:41) Simon Benoit: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 16:49) William Nylander: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:40) William Nylander: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:00) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:36) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:37) Max Domi: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:22) Adam Gaudette: tip-in, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:29) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 4:42) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 4:57) Collin Graf: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:04) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:13) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:32) Will Smith: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 8:17) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:43) Alexander Wennberg: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:44) Steven Lorentz: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:07) Shakir Mukhamadullin: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:23) Igor Chernyshov: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:03) William Nylander: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:42) Simon Benoit: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:30) Philippe Myers: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:58) William Eklund: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:08) Sam Dickinson: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:00) John Tavares: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 18:59) William Nylander: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:23) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 168 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:28) Max Domi: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:53) Philippe Myers: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:55) Shakir Mukhamadullin: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:17) Macklin Celebrini: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:31) Matthew Knies: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 2:56) Philippe Myers: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:59) Kiefer Sherwood: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:31) William Eklund: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 4:01) Michael Misa: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:02) Simon Benoit: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:25) John Tavares: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 4:37) Adam Gaudette: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 5:04) Michael Misa: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 5:26) Philippe Myers: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:59) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:01) Simon Benoit: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:10) Nick Robertson: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 7:36) Matthew Knies: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:45) Nick Robertson: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:40) Jake McCabe: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:34) John Tavares: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:16) Will Smith: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:21) Collin Graf: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:52) John Tavares: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 17:22) William Nylander: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:00) Dakota Joshua: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:51) Zack Ostapchuk: GOAL, wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:27) Collin Graf: GOAL, wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:43) William Eklund: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 1:42) John Tavares: GOAL, snap, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 6:43) Adam Gaudette: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.91 (P3 19:03)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
53 Easton Cowan 011 -1 00.00 0019:22
91 John Tavares 101 -1 60.61 0019:13
88 William Nylander 011 -1 70.11 1018:45
89 Matthew Knies 000 -1 20.20 2017:36
11 Max Domi 000 -1 40.20 0015:42
29 Bo Groulx 000 -2 00.00 3115:11
81 Dakota Joshua 000 -2 30.16 4014:29
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 50.24 2214:03
63 Matias Maccelli 000 -2 20.10 1013:52
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 -1 10.00 2013:02
14 Nick Robertson 000 -2 30.20 1011:43
26 Jacob Quillan 000 0 00.00 1010:32
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 000 -2 40.02 1425:36
44 Morgan Rielly 000 0 50.02 0122:56
51 Philippe Myers 000 0 60.07 1222:52
44 Simon Benoit 000 -2 40.30 1418:49
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -2 20.00 1117:57
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 -1 10.00 0007:03
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anthony Stolarz 24321 .875 2.12 -0.88

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Macklin Celebrini 000 0 30.14 0121:06
92 Igor Chernyshov 000 0 20.04 1118:24
21 Alexander Wennberg 011 +1 10.05 0018:21
44 Kiefer Sherwood 011 +1 50.14 2017:05
2 Will Smith 000 0 50.16 0116:43
27 William Eklund 112 +2 60.29 0115:01
77 Michael Misa 011 +1 30.08 0114:24
51 Collin Graf 101 +1 30.21 2113:53
73 Tyler Toffoli 011 +1 30.11 0013:36
23 Barclay Goodrow 011 +1 10.14 4012:07
63 Zack Ostapchuk 112 +2 20.16 4211:15
81 Adam Gaudette 101 +2 61.26 1311:02
Defense
6 Sam Dickinson 000 +1 30.04 0020:49
38 Mario Ferraro 000 +1 10.01 2220:44
73 Vincent Desharnais 000 +3 20.00 0119:05
9 Dmitry Orlov 011 +2 50.09 1118:57
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin 000 0 30.03 0118:24
4 Nick Leddy 000 +1 30.06 0017:56
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic 20119 .950 2.21 +1.21

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
91 John Tavares C +1.27 +0.75 +0.40 +0.09 0.00 +0.05 -0.02 — 19:13
88 William Nylander R +1.04 +0.55 +0.07 +0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:45
53 Easton Cowan R +0.73 +0.70 0.00 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:22
51 Philippe Myers D +0.55 0.00 +0.05 +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 22:52
11 Max Domi C +0.38 0.00 +0.13 +0.25 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 15:42
44 Morgan Rielly D +0.33 0.00 +0.01 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 22:56
2 Simon Benoit D +0.26 0.00 +0.19 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 18:49
89 Nick Robertson L +0.22 0.00 +0.13 +0.08 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 11:43
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.13 0.00 +0.10 +0.31 -0.30 0.00 +0.02 — 14:29
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.10 0.00 +0.15 -0.30 +0.15 +0.01 +0.08 — 14:03
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:03
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.23 0.00 +0.06 -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:52
22 Jake McCabe D -0.27 0.00 +0.01 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.22 — 25:36
26 Jacob Quillan C -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.00 -0.06 -0.04 — 10:32
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:02
23 Matthew Knies L -0.47 0.00 +0.13 -0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:36
29 Bo Groulx C -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.47 0.00 -0.05 +0.03 — 15:11
25 Brandon Carlo D -0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:57
41 Anthony Stolarz G -0.88 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.88 57:17

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Adam Gaudette R +2.26 +0.75 +0.82 +0.60 0.00 -0.02 +0.11 — 11:02
63 Zack Ostapchuk C +1.88 +1.30 +0.10 +0.32 0.00 +0.06 +0.10 — 11:15
72 William Eklund L +1.78 +1.45 +0.19 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:01
9 Dmitry Orlov D +1.41 +0.55 +0.06 +0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:57
51 Collin Graf R +1.25 +0.75 +0.14 +0.17 +0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 13:53
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G +1.21 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.21 60:00
23 Barclay Goodrow C +1.11 +0.70 +0.09 +0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:07
77 Michael Misa C +0.94 +0.70 +0.05 +0.22 -0.15 +0.04 +0.07 — 14:24
21 Alexander Wennberg C +0.88 +0.70 +0.03 +0.16 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 18:21
44 Kiefer Sherwood L +0.74 +0.55 +0.09 +0.11 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 17:05
73 Tyler Toffoli C +0.72 +0.55 +0.07 +0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:36
5 Vincent Desharnais D +0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:05
6 Sam Dickinson D +0.06 0.00 +0.02 -0.07 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 20:49
4 Nick Leddy D +0.06 0.00 +0.04 +0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:56
2 Will Smith C -0.13 0.00 +0.11 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:43
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D -0.14 0.00 +0.02 -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:24
71 Macklin Celebrini C -0.16 0.00 +0.09 -0.26 0.00 -0.02 +0.03 — 21:06
38 Mario Ferraro D -0.36 0.00 +0.01 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:44
92 Igor Chernyshov L -0.46 0.00 +0.03 -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 18:24

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.