Detroit Red WingsDET 1–4 Final Utah MammothUTA

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Detroit Red WingsDET	0	0	1	1	30
Utah MammothUTA	2	0	2	4	25

Playoff odds, %	Change
UTA	+4.4
DET	-2.5
NSH	-0.8
LAK	-0.7
VGK	-0.6
SJS	-0.6
EDM	-0.6
BOS	+0.5
CBJ	+0.5
ANA	-0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 4, 2026 7:07 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:57	UTA	Sean Durzi (5) Unassisted · snap xG 0.01	0–1 ▶
8:11	UTA	Nick Schmaltz (23)PP Barrett Hayton (14), Clayton Keller (37) · snap xG 0.27	0–2 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
4:40	UTA	Dylan Guenther (25) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.17	0–3 ▶
15:52	DET	Dylan Larkin (26)PP James van Riemsdyk (11), Moritz Seider (31) · wrist xG 0.35	1–3 ▶
17:42	UTA	Clayton Keller (17)EN Nick Schmaltz (30), Lawson Crouse (15) · snap xG 0.58	1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DET 56%Deserve to win44% UTA

DET		UTA
3.59	Expected goals	4.43
1	Goals (no shootout)	4
1.61	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.09
70	Shot attempts	47
53	Unblocked attempts	40
30	Shots on goal	25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
19:11	UTA	Goalie	Goalie · Vejmelka +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.03 xG, 16 shots on goal
19:50	DET	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced UTA 1.45–0.03 In xG over 10 minutes, 11:40 of the 2nd to 1:40 of the 3rd; neither team scored
3rd Period
14:21	DET	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Gibson, down 3–0 With 5:39 left; DET scored at 15:52 of the 3rd (1–3)
16:24	DET	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Gibson, down 3–1 With 3:36 left; UTA scored at 17:42 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

DET shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Detroit Red Wings

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Dylan Larkin	1	0	1	-1	4	0.66	3	0	20:14
88	Patrick Kane	0	0	0	-2	7	0.36	1	0	19:41
93	Alex DeBrincat	0	0	0	-2	8	0.38	0	0	19:29
23	Lucas Raymond	0	0	0	-1	7	0.59	1	0	19:20
18	Andrew Copp	0	0	0	-2	3	0.23	1	0	17:01
92	Marco Kasper	0	0	0	0	7	0.53	4	0	15:06
21	James van Riemsdyk	0	1	1	-1	1	0.07	0	0	14:05
22	Mason Appleton	0	0	0	-1	3	0.13	4	0	13:24
37	J.T. Compher	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	0	0	13:05
58	Emmitt Finnie	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	3	0	12:35
27	Michael Rasmussen	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	10:44
25	Elmer Soderblom	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	09:53
Defense
53	Moritz Seider	0	1	1	-1	5	0.16	3	3	30:34
20	Albert Johansson	0	0	0	0	4	0.05	0	1	22:21
25	Jacob Bernard-Docker	0	0	0	0	6	0.25	0	0	16:54
8	Ben Chiarot	0	0	0	-1	3	0.02	2	0	16:50
44	Axel Sandin-Pellikka	0	0	0	-2	7	0.07	1	0	16:36
52	Travis Hamonic	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	1	09:23

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
John Gibson	24	3	21	.875	3.24	+0.24

Utah Mammoth

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
8	Nick Schmaltz	1	1	2	+1	7	0.85	0	1	21:10
67	Lawson Crouse	0	1	1	+1	2	0.15	0	1	19:30
11	Dylan Guenther	1	0	1	+2	5	0.47	0	0	17:38
22	Jack McBain	0	0	0	+2	6	0.99	4	0	16:41
9	Clayton Keller	1	1	2	+1	6	0.86	0	1	16:23
27	Barrett Hayton	0	1	1	0	6	0.63	1	0	16:19
82	Kevin Stenlund	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	14:49
10	JJ Peterka	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	0	0	14:48
53	Michael Carcone	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	0	1	12:34
56	Kailer Yamamoto	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	2	0	11:45
38	Liam O'Brien	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	4	0	08:10
13	Brandon Tanev	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	07:13
Defense
98	Mikhail Sergachev	0	0	0	+2	3	0.09	0	1	25:02
28	Ian Cole	0	0	0	+2	1	0.00	0	5	20:00
5	Sean Durzi	1	0	1	+1	3	0.02	0	2	19:46
6	John Marino	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	18:26
88	Nate Schmidt	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	17:30
57	Nick DeSimone	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	1	14:47

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Karel Vejmelka	30	1	29	.967	3.59	+2.59

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
53 Moritz Seider D	+1.10	+0.55	+0.11	+0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	30:34
71 Dylan Larkin C	+1.00	+0.75	+0.43	-0.03	-0.15	+0.02	-0.02	—	20:14
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D	+0.94	0.00	+0.16	+0.47	+0.30	0.00	0.00	—	16:54
92 Marco Kasper C	+0.44	0.00	+0.35	+0.07	0.00	-0.01	+0.04	—	15:06
23 Lucas Raymond L	+0.33	0.00	+0.38	-0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:20
21 James van Riemsdyk L	+0.33	+0.70	+0.05	-0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:05
36 John Gibson G	+0.24	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.24	57:06
88 Patrick Kane R	+0.18	0.00	+0.24	-0.04	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	19:41
93 Alex DeBrincat R	+0.05	0.00	+0.25	-0.16	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	—	19:29
18 Andrew Copp C	-0.06	0.00	+0.15	-0.18	0.00	+0.02	-0.04	—	17:01
85 Elmer Soderblom L	-0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.19	+0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	9:53
20 Albert Johansson D	-0.13	0.00	+0.03	-0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	22:21
52 Travis Hamonic D	-0.21	0.00	+0.01	-0.12	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	9:23
22 Mason Appleton C	-0.26	0.00	+0.08	-0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:24
58 Emmitt Finnie C	-0.37	0.00	+0.05	-0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:35
37 J.T. Compher L	-0.46	0.00	0.00	-0.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:05
27 Michael Rasmussen C	-0.62	0.00	0.00	-0.61	0.00	-0.03	+0.02	—	10:44
8 Ben Chiarot D	-0.90	0.00	+0.01	-0.74	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	16:50
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	-1.01	0.00	+0.05	-1.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:36

Utah Mammoth

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
70 Karel Vejmelka G	+2.59	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.59	59:58
9 Clayton Keller R	+2.22	+1.30	+0.56	+0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:23
8 Nick Schmaltz C	+2.05	+1.45	+0.55	+0.04	0.00	-0.02	+0.03	—	21:10
27 Barrett Hayton C	+1.66	+0.70	+0.41	+0.70	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:19
11 Dylan Guenther R	+1.46	+0.75	+0.31	+0.56	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:38
50 Sean Durzi D	+1.16	+0.75	+0.01	+0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	19:46
67 Lawson Crouse L	+1.08	+0.55	+0.10	+0.24	+0.15	-0.01	+0.05	—	19:30
22 Jack McBain C	+0.72	0.00	+0.64	+0.10	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	16:41
28 Ian Cole D	+0.69	0.00	0.00	+0.46	0.00	0.00	+0.23	—	20:00
53 Michael Carcone L	+0.66	0.00	0.00	+0.60	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	12:34
56 Kailer Yamamoto R	+0.51	0.00	+0.10	+0.26	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	11:45
98 Mikhail Sergachev D	+0.49	0.00	+0.06	+0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	25:02
77 JJ Peterka R	+0.26	0.00	+0.09	+0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:48
88 Nate Schmidt D	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.25	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	17:30
6 John Marino D	+0.02	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:26
82 Kevin Stenlund C	-0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.08	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	14:49
38 Liam O'Brien C	-0.07	0.00	+0.03	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	8:10
13 Brandon Tanev L	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:13
57 Nick DeSimone D	-0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.03	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	14:47

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.