Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 4–3 Final/OT Detroit Red WingsDET

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Final/OT	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T	SOG
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	1	0	2	1	4	25
Detroit Red WingsDET	3	0	0	0	3	26

Playoff odds, %	Change
DET	-4.7
VGK	+4.4
CBJ	+1.1
OTT	+1.0
SJS	-0.9
EDM	-0.7
BOS	+0.6
NSH	-0.6
LAK	-0.5
SEA	-0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 4, 2026 6:32 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:50	VGK	Reilly Smith (11) Mitch Marner (44), Pavel Dorofeyev (20) · snap xG 0.09	1–0 ▶
5:58	DET	Emmitt Finnie (11) Moritz Seider (34), Simon Edvinsson (12) · snap xG 0.06	1–1 ▶
15:15	DET	Simon Edvinsson (8) Andrew Copp (27), Alex DeBrincat (30) · snap xG 0.18	1–2 ▶
16:14	DET	Alex DeBrincat (32) Lucas Raymond (45), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (13) · snap xG 0.08	1–3 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
11:37	VGK	Ivan Barbashev (19) Rasmus Andersson (24), Noah Hanifin (19) · wrist xG 0.12	2–3 ▶
16:36	VGK	Mitch Marner (17) Tomas Hertl (29), Shea Theodore (22) · wrist xG 0.27	3–3 ▶
Overtime
2:11	VGK	Tomas Hertl (24)PP Mitch Marner (45), Rasmus Andersson (25) · wrist xG 0.17	4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

VGK 56%Deserve to win44% DET

VGK		DET
3.44	Expected goals	3.06
4	Goals (no shootout)	3
2.73	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.73
58	Shot attempts	52
41	Unblocked attempts	39
25	Shots on goal	26

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
16:14	VGK	Goalie	Goalie · Hill −2.1 goals saved 3 goals on 0.90 xG, 11 shots on goal
3rd Period
15:50	VGK	Shortened bench	Shortened bench · 3 forwards sat Smith, Saad and Reinhardt: last shifts between 5:44 and 6:39 of the 3rd
16:32	VGK	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · VGK takes the lead, 61–39% DET had led since 8:14 of the 1st, by as much as 63%

Shot map

VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DET shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Vegas Golden Knights

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
9	Jack Eichel	0	0	0	0	13	0.63	1	1	23:45
93	Mitch Marner	1	2	3	+2	7	0.67	1	0	19:59
49	Ivan Barbashev	1	0	1	+1	4	0.39	0	0	18:30
42	Braeden Bowman	0	0	0	0	5	0.51	3	1	17:53
48	Tomas Hertl	1	1	2	-1	2	0.26	1	1	16:33
16	Pavel Dorofeyev	0	1	1	+1	2	0.11	1	0	15:48
15	Colton Sissons	0	0	0	0	3	0.17	1	0	15:23
22	Cole Smith	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	1	0	14:13
55	Keegan Kolesar	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	1	0	12:06
19	Reilly Smith	1	0	1	0	2	0.21	0	0	09:12
20	Brandon Saad	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	1	0	08:22
29	Cole Reinhardt	0	0	0	-2	2	0.06	3	0	07:51
Defense
27	Shea Theodore	0	1	1	0	3	0.10	0	3	24:13
4	Rasmus Andersson	0	2	2	0	1	0.02	0	3	23:28
3	Brayden McNabb	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	1	0	20:48
15	Noah Hanifin	0	1	1	+2	4	0.04	0	1	20:30
5	Jeremy Lauzon	0	0	0	-2	2	0.03	2	0	16:46
6	Kaedan Korczak	0	0	0	+1	3	0.01	2	0	13:32

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Adin Hill	26	3	23	.885	3.06	+0.06

Detroit Red Wings

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Dylan Larkin	0	0	0	-2	6	0.43	0	0	21:32
23	Lucas Raymond	0	1	1	+1	4	0.32	0	1	21:18
88	Patrick Kane	0	0	0	-1	6	0.34	0	2	20:57
93	Alex DeBrincat	1	1	2	+1	5	0.28	0	1	20:39
18	Andrew Copp	0	1	1	+1	3	0.39	0	2	18:54
27	Michael Rasmussen	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	1	16:09
92	Marco Kasper	0	0	0	+1	3	0.08	0	0	14:01
58	Emmitt Finnie	1	0	1	+1	3	0.13	1	0	13:22
22	Mason Appleton	0	0	0	+1	2	0.28	0	0	12:03
37	J.T. Compher	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	11:05
21	James van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	1	0	09:39
65	Dominik Shine	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	08:03
Defense
53	Moritz Seider	0	1	1	+1	4	0.25	2	2	28:40
77	Simon Edvinsson	1	1	2	+1	5	0.19	1	4	24:03
8	Ben Chiarot	0	0	0	-1	3	0.01	0	1	22:40
25	Jacob Bernard-Docker	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	17:59
20	Albert Johansson	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	0	0	13:55
44	Axel Sandin-Pellikka	0	1	1	0	4	0.17	1	0	09:37

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Cam Talbot	25	4	21	.840	3.44	-0.56

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Vegas Golden Knights

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
93 Mitch Marner R	+3.71	+2.15	+0.44	+1.00	+0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	19:59
49 Ivan Barbashev L	+2.45	+0.75	+0.25	+1.47	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:30
4 Rasmus Andersson D	+2.37	+1.25	+0.01	+0.96	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	23:28
42 Braeden Bowman R	+1.43	0.00	+0.33	+0.88	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	17:53
48 Tomas Hertl C	+1.23	+1.45	+0.17	-0.22	-0.30	+0.06	+0.07	—	16:33
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R	+1.06	+0.55	+0.07	+0.45	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:48
27 Shea Theodore D	+1.03	+0.55	+0.06	+0.46	-0.15	0.00	+0.11	—	24:13
15 Noah Hanifin D	+0.94	+0.55	+0.03	+0.33	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:30
9 Jack Eichel C	+0.94	0.00	+0.41	+0.60	0.00	-0.08	+0.01	—	23:45
19 Reilly Smith R	+0.79	+0.75	+0.14	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	9:12
6 Kaedan Korczak D	+0.29	0.00	+0.01	+0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:32
10 Colton Sissons C	+0.15	0.00	+0.11	+0.04	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	15:23
22 Cole Smith R	+0.13	0.00	+0.13	+0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	14:13
5 Jeremy Lauzon D	+0.12	0.00	+0.02	+0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:46
3 Brayden McNabb D	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:48
33 Adin Hill G	+0.06	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.06	62:11
55 Keegan Kolesar R	-0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	12:06
20 Brandon Saad L	-0.26	0.00	+0.02	-0.27	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	8:22
23 Cole Reinhardt L	-0.51	0.00	+0.04	-0.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:51

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
93 Alex DeBrincat R	+1.46	+1.30	+0.18	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	20:39
23 Lucas Raymond L	+1.18	+0.70	+0.21	-0.06	+0.30	0.00	+0.03	—	21:18
58 Emmitt Finnie C	+1.15	+0.75	+0.09	+0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:22
18 Andrew Copp C	+0.95	+0.70	+0.25	-0.14	0.00	+0.03	+0.10	—	18:54
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D	+0.64	+0.55	+0.11	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:37
77 Simon Edvinsson D	+0.53	+1.30	+0.13	-0.92	-0.15	0.00	+0.18	—	24:03
22 Mason Appleton C	+0.49	0.00	+0.18	+0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:03
92 Marco Kasper C	+0.37	0.00	+0.05	+0.31	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	14:01
53 Moritz Seider D	+0.20	+0.70	+0.16	-0.85	+0.15	0.00	+0.04	—	28:40
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D	+0.04	0.00	0.00	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:59
20 Albert Johansson D	+0.04	0.00	+0.06	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:55
65 Dominik Shine R	-0.09	0.00	0.00	-0.25	+0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	8:03
21 James van Riemsdyk L	-0.11	0.00	+0.05	-0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:39
88 Patrick Kane R	-0.11	0.00	+0.22	-0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	20:57
8 Ben Chiarot D	-0.32	0.00	+0.01	-0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	22:40
39 Cam Talbot G	-0.56	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.56	62:08
37 J.T. Compher L	-0.63	0.00	0.00	-0.69	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	11:05
27 Michael Rasmussen C	-1.07	0.00	0.00	-1.11	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	16:09
71 Dylan Larkin C	-1.21	0.00	+0.28	-1.32	-0.15	+0.02	-0.04	—	21:32

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.