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Utah MammothUTA 3–0 Final Philadelphia FlyersPHI

Thursday, March 5, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Utah MammothUTA 021 3 23
Philadelphia FlyersPHI 000 0 16
Playoff odds, % Change
UTA +4.3
PHI -3.8
EDM -0.9
NYI +0.8
BOS +0.7
SEA -0.7
SJS -0.7
LAK -0.6
NSH -0.6
CBJ +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 5, 2026 6:24 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
1:38 UTA Nick Schmaltz (24)PP Dylan Guenther (24), Sean Durzi (17) · snap xG 0.12 1–0 ▶
8:03 UTA Clayton Keller (19) Dylan Guenther (25), Nick Schmaltz (34) · backhand xG 0.15 2–0 ▶
3rd Period
18:12 UTA Michael Carcone (12)EN Kevin Stenlund (9), John Marino (25) · wrist xG 0.93 3–0 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

UTA 57%Deserve to win43% PHI
UTAPHI
3.75Expected goals1.66
3Goals (no shootout)0
1.63Expected goals, 5 on 51.26
57Shot attempts46
40Unblocked attempts26
23Shots on goal16

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
16:46 PHI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vladar, down 2–0
With 3:14 left; UTA scored at 18:12 of the 3rd (3–0)
19:20 PHI No shift No shift · Deslauriers, 10:35 on the bench
No shift after 3:12 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (5:21) before that

Shot map

UTA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PHI shoots
Owen Tippett: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:04) Nate Schmidt: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:38) Kailer Yamamoto: deflected, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:13) Nate Schmidt: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:43) Jack McBain: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:08) Sean Durzi: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:14) Clayton Keller: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:01) John Marino: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:17) JJ Peterka: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:55) Clayton Keller: backhand, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:50) Carl Grundstrom: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:03) Jamie Drysdale: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:30) Bobby Brink: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:06) Denver Barkey: backhand, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:45) Sean Couturier: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:05) Jack McBain: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:19) Denver Barkey: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 1:50) Kevin Stenlund: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:42) Trevor Zegras: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 3:58) Nick DeSimone: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:31) Noah Cates: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 4:41) Noah Cates: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:43) JJ Peterka: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:43) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:48) JJ Peterka: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 5:50) Carl Grundstrom: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:07) Michael Carcone: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:00) Nick DeSimone: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:26) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:34) Sean Couturier: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 9:04) Trevor Zegras: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 9:46) Owen Tippett: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:06) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:55) Lawson Crouse: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:35) Matvei Michkov: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:35) Clayton Keller: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:35) Sean Couturier: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:36) Jamie Drysdale: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:08) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:32) Noah Cates: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:57) Sean Durzi: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:34) Sean Couturier: backhand, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:04) Kevin Stenlund: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:17) John Marino: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:22) Clayton Keller: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:57) Cam York: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:26) Noah Juulsen: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:59) Trevor Zegras: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:31) Bobby Brink: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:07) JJ Peterka: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:32) Carl Grundstrom: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 8:13) Michael Carcone: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:32) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 9:01) Clayton Keller: wrist, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:32) Nate Schmidt: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:49) Dylan Guenther: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:01) Denver Barkey: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:12) Michael Carcone: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:46) Alexander Kerfoot: wrist, 166 ft, xG 0.34 (P3 17:31) John Marino: wrist, 175 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:36) Kevin Stenlund: wrist, 162 ft, xG 0.44 (P3 18:07) Kailer Yamamoto: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:32) Nikita Grebenkin: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 19:41) Nick Schmaltz: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 1:38) Clayton Keller: GOAL, backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 8:03) Michael Carcone: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.93 (P3 18:12)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
8 Nick Schmaltz 101 +1 30.15 0219:34
11 Dylan Guenther 022 +1 20.15 2016:30
9 Clayton Keller 101 +1 80.23 0116:16
67 Lawson Crouse 000 0 30.04 2014:25
14 Alexander Kerfoot 000 +1 10.34 2014:21
22 Jack McBain 000 0 20.08 5014:08
92 Logan Cooley 000 0 00.00 0013:55
10 JJ Peterka 000 0 60.37 0013:47
27 Barrett Hayton 000 0 60.20 1013:25
82 Kevin Stenlund 011 +1 30.57 1113:17
56 Kailer Yamamoto 000 0 20.21 2113:04
53 Michael Carcone 101 +1 51.10 0112:07
Defense
6 John Marino 011 +2 40.08 0122:40
88 Nate Schmidt 000 +2 40.06 0322:12
28 Ian Cole 000 0 20.00 5422:06
5 Sean Durzi 011 0 20.08 1121:58
57 Nick DeSimone 000 0 20.12 0317:45
26 Dmitri Simashev 000 0 20.00 0012:30
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Vitek Vanecek 16016 1.000 1.66 +1.66

Philadelphia Flyers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
46 Trevor Zegras 000 -1 50.20 0122:16
74 Owen Tippett 000 -2 30.10 2121:03
10 Bobby Brink 000 -1 30.09 1019:19
22 Christian Dvorak 000 0 00.00 1018:28
27 Noah Cates 000 -1 30.26 4018:18
39 Matvei Michkov 000 -2 20.04 0016:43
14 Sean Couturier 000 -1 70.26 0014:54
17 Nikita Grebenkin 000 0 10.08 4112:27
91 Carl Grundstrom 000 0 40.39 3212:09
86 Denver Barkey 000 0 30.16 2312:06
21 Garnet Hathaway 000 0 10.00 2009:57
44 Nicolas Deslauriers 000 0 00.00 2005:21
Defense
6 Travis Sanheim 000 -1 10.00 2224:24
9 Jamie Drysdale 000 -1 40.04 0222:48
55 Rasmus Ristolainen 000 -1 30.00 1222:05
8 Cam York 000 0 20.01 0221:10
36 Emil Andrae 000 0 00.00 3013:55
47 Noah Juulsen 000 0 40.03 2112:41
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dan Vladar 22220 .909 2.01 +0.01

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
8 Nick Schmaltz C +1.86 +1.30 +0.09 +0.39 0.00 -0.04 +0.12 — 19:34
11 Dylan Guenther R +1.75 +1.40 +0.09 +0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:30
41 Vitek Vanecek G +1.66 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.66 60:00
53 Michael Carcone L +1.58 +0.75 +0.71 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:07
9 Clayton Keller R +1.43 +0.75 +0.15 +0.67 -0.15 -0.01 +0.03 — 16:16
82 Kevin Stenlund C +1.29 +0.70 +0.37 +0.08 0.00 +0.08 +0.05 — 13:17
6 John Marino D +0.91 +0.55 +0.05 +0.41 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 22:40
50 Sean Durzi D +0.85 +0.55 +0.05 +0.39 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 21:58
28 Ian Cole D +0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.38 +0.15 0.00 +0.18 — 22:06
88 Nate Schmidt D +0.53 0.00 +0.04 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 22:12
15 Alexander Kerfoot C +0.46 0.00 +0.22 +0.14 +0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 14:21
56 Kailer Yamamoto R +0.35 0.00 +0.13 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:04
27 Barrett Hayton C +0.24 0.00 +0.13 +0.19 0.00 -0.04 -0.04 — 13:25
77 JJ Peterka R +0.10 0.00 +0.24 -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:47
22 Jack McBain C +0.05 0.00 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:08
57 Nick DeSimone D -0.01 0.00 +0.08 -0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 17:45
92 Logan Cooley C -0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 13:55
67 Lawson Crouse L -0.11 0.00 +0.02 -0.08 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 14:25
26 Dmitri Simashev D -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:30

Philadelphia Flyers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
9 Jamie Drysdale D +0.63 0.00 +0.03 +0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:48
91 Carl Grundstrom R +0.46 0.00 +0.25 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 12:09
8 Cam York D +0.34 0.00 +0.01 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:10
46 Trevor Zegras C +0.29 0.00 +0.13 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 22:16
14 Sean Couturier C +0.26 0.00 +0.17 +0.08 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:54
19 Garnet Hathaway R +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.09 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 9:57
74 Owen Tippett R +0.16 0.00 +0.07 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:03
22 Christian Dvorak C +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.05 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 18:28
80 Dan Vladar G +0.01 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.01 57:48
52 Denver Barkey C -0.05 0.00 +0.10 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 12:06
44 Nicolas Deslauriers L -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 5:21
29 Nikita Grebenkin R -0.15 0.00 +0.05 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:27
10 Bobby Brink R -0.23 0.00 +0.06 -0.46 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 19:19
55 Rasmus Ristolainen D -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:05
6 Travis Sanheim D -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 24:24
36 Emil Andrae D -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:55
47 Noah Juulsen D -0.53 0.00 +0.02 -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 12:41
27 Noah Cates L -0.55 0.00 +0.17 -0.57 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:18
39 Matvei Michkov R -0.57 0.00 +0.02 -0.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:43

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.