Florida PanthersFLA 2–4 Final Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ

Thursday, March 5, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Florida PanthersFLA	0	0	2	2	28
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	1	1	2	4	28

Playoff odds, %	Change
CBJ	+5.4
FLA	-0.2
NYI	-1.3
BOS	-0.8
PIT	-0.6
PHI	-0.5
OTT	-0.5
WSH	-0.5
DET	-0.4
MTL	-0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 5, 2026 6:24 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:08	CBJ	Ivan Provorov (7)PP Sean Monahan (18), Kirill Marchenko (30) · wrist xG 0.02	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
10:50	CBJ	Mathieu Olivier (10) Egor Zamula (3), Ivan Provorov (16) · deflected xG 0.10	0–2 ▶
3rd Period
1:41	CBJ	Boone Jenner (9) Kent Johnson (13) · wrist xG 0.15	0–3 ▶
9:08	FLA	Niko Mikkola (2) Aaron Ekblad (21), Sam Reinhart (30) · tip-in xG 0.04	1–3 ▶
14:44	FLA	Sam Bennett (23)PP Aaron Ekblad (22), Matthew Tkachuk (9) · wrist xG 0.06	2–3 ▶
18:18	CBJ	Mathieu Olivier (11)EN Charlie Coyle (31), Ivan Provorov (17) · wrist xG 0.90	2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 60%Deserve to win40% CBJ

FLA		CBJ
3.33	Expected goals	3.62
2	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.05	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.10
76	Shot attempts	48
55	Unblocked attempts	40
28	Shots on goal	28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
4:29	FLA	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · FLA takes the lead, 61–39% CBJ had led since 11:29 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
3rd Period
1:41	CBJ	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · CBJ takes the lead, 61–39% FLA had led since 4:29 of the 2nd, by as much as 61%
3:12	CBJ	Goalie	Goalie · Greaves +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.00 xG, 18 shots on goal
9:50	CBJ	No shift	No shift · Marchment, 18:29 on the bench No shift after 15:32 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (10:26) before that
14:40	FLA	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Tarasov, down 3–1 With 5:20 left; FLA scored at 14:44 of the 3rd (2–3)
17:22	FLA	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Tarasov, down 3–2 With 2:38 left; CBJ scored at 18:18 of the 3rd (2–4)
18:00	FLA	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced CBJ 1.22–0.17 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:10 to 18:10 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
18:02	FLA	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · FLA takes the lead, 60–40% CBJ had led since 1:41 of the 3rd, by as much as 61%

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CBJ shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
13	Sam Reinhart	0	1	1	0	14	1.04	0	0	20:34
15	Anton Lundell	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	0	18:32
9	Sam Bennett	1	0	1	0	8	0.59	0	0	18:05
19	Matthew Tkachuk	0	1	1	-1	7	0.34	0	0	17:50
17	Evan Rodrigues	0	0	0	0	4	0.08	1	0	15:57
23	Carter Verhaeghe	0	0	0	-2	6	0.15	0	0	15:12
27	Eetu Luostarinen	0	0	0	-2	2	0.18	1	0	14:42
11	Mackie Samoskevich	0	0	0	+1	6	0.17	0	0	13:59
92	Tomas Nosek	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	3	0	12:44
63	Brad Marchand	0	0	0	-3	5	0.14	0	0	12:39
70	Jesper Boqvist	0	0	0	0	4	0.21	2	0	10:34
95	Sandis Vilmanis	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	2	0	10:34
Defense
5	Aaron Ekblad	0	2	2	0	0	0.00	0	2	22:19
42	Gustav Forsling	0	0	0	0	4	0.11	1	1	20:47
7	Dmitry Kulikov	0	0	0	-1	3	0.05	2	0	20:05
77	Niko Mikkola	1	0	1	+1	4	0.12	1	0	19:24
26	Uvis Balinskis	0	0	0	-2	3	0.04	5	2	17:35
73	Donovan Sebrango	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	1	1	14:04

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Daniil Tarasov	27	3	24	.889	2.72	-0.28

Columbus Blue Jackets

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
3	Charlie Coyle	0	1	1	+1	4	0.24	0	0	19:46
19	Adam Fantilli	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	3	1	19:21
23	Sean Monahan	0	1	1	+1	5	0.57	0	0	18:25
4	Cole Sillinger	0	0	0	+1	7	0.30	1	0	16:18
86	Kirill Marchenko	0	1	1	0	1	0.08	0	0	15:54
24	Mathieu Olivier	2	0	2	+2	4	1.16	3	1	15:44
21	Isac Lundeström	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	15:06
22	Boone Jenner	1	0	1	+1	3	0.28	2	0	14:58
91	Kent Johnson	0	1	1	+1	3	0.25	0	0	11:15
10	Dmitri Voronkov	0	0	0	0	4	0.41	0	1	10:58
27	Mason Marchment	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	1	0	10:26
18	Miles Wood	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	0	10:16
Defense
9	Ivan Provorov	1	2	3	0	6	0.16	1	4	26:22
5	Denton Mateychuk	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	2	22:39
78	Damon Severson	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	0	4	22:12
44	Erik Gudbranson	0	0	0	0	4	0.06	3	3	22:08
2	Jake Christiansen	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	4	12:02
6	Egor Zamula	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	0	11:28

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jet Greaves	28	2	26	.929	3.33	+1.33

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
5 Aaron Ekblad D	+1.89	+1.40	0.00	+0.45	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	22:19
9 Sam Bennett C	+1.60	+0.75	+0.39	+0.48	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	18:05
13 Sam Reinhart C	+1.56	+0.55	+0.68	+0.39	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	—	20:34
19 Matthew Tkachuk L	+1.02	+0.55	+0.22	+0.10	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:50
77 Niko Mikkola D	+1.01	+0.75	+0.08	+0.19	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:24
42 Gustav Forsling D	+0.50	0.00	+0.07	+0.37	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:47
70 Jesper Boqvist C	+0.03	0.00	+0.14	-0.10	0.00	+0.01	-0.02	—	10:34
7 Dmitry Kulikov D	+0.02	0.00	+0.03	-0.16	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	20:05
92 Tomas Nosek L	+0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	12:44
95 Sandis Vilmanis L	+0.02	0.00	+0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:34
17 Evan Rodrigues C	0.00	0.00	+0.05	+0.12	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	15:57
11 Mackie Samoskevich R	-0.04	0.00	+0.11	0.00	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:59
15 Anton Lundell C	-0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.04	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	18:32
23 Carter Verhaeghe C	-0.11	0.00	+0.10	-0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:12
40 Daniil Tarasov G	-0.28	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.28	59:00
27 Eetu Luostarinen C	-0.43	0.00	+0.12	-0.64	+0.15	-0.05	0.00	—	14:42
63 Brad Marchand L	-0.53	0.00	+0.09	-0.60	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:39
6 Donovan Sebrango D	-0.55	0.00	+0.02	-0.52	-0.08	0.00	+0.03	—	14:04
26 Uvis Balinskis D	-0.78	0.00	+0.03	-0.82	-0.08	0.00	+0.08	—	17:35

Columbus Blue Jackets

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
24 Mathieu Olivier R	+2.65	+1.50	+0.75	+0.35	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:44
9 Ivan Provorov D	+1.82	+1.85	+0.11	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	26:22
91 Kent Johnson C	+1.34	+0.70	+0.16	+0.49	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:15
73 Jet Greaves G	+1.33	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.33	60:00
23 Sean Monahan C	+1.30	+0.70	+0.37	+0.11	+0.08	+0.05	0.00	—	18:25
38 Boone Jenner C	+1.20	+0.75	+0.18	+0.28	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	14:58
44 Erik Gudbranson D	+0.84	0.00	+0.04	+0.59	+0.08	0.00	+0.13	—	22:08
3 Charlie Coyle C	+0.78	+0.70	+0.16	-0.07	0.00	+0.04	-0.04	—	19:46
6 Egor Zamula D	+0.59	+0.70	0.00	-0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:28
10 Dmitri Voronkov L	+0.58	0.00	+0.27	+0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:58
2 Jake Christiansen D	+0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.53	-0.15	0.00	+0.20	—	12:02
4 Cole Sillinger C	+0.52	0.00	+0.20	+0.19	+0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	16:18
86 Kirill Marchenko R	+0.11	+0.55	+0.05	-0.34	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	15:54
78 Damon Severson D	+0.04	0.00	+0.02	-0.03	-0.15	0.00	+0.20	—	22:12
11 Miles Wood L	+0.03	0.00	+0.01	+0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:16
21 Isac Lundeström C	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	15:06
19 Adam Fantilli C	-0.08	0.00	+0.01	-0.22	+0.15	-0.03	+0.01	—	19:21
5 Denton Mateychuk D	-0.16	0.00	0.00	-0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	22:39
17 Mason Marchment L	-0.49	0.00	+0.02	-0.47	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	10:26

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.