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St. Louis BluesSTL 3–2 Final/OT San Jose SharksSJS

Friday, March 6, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL 1101 3 14
San Jose SharksSJS 0110 2 25
Playoff odds, % Change
SJS -8.8
STL +0.2
EDM +1.8
SEA +1.8
LAK +1.4
ANA +0.7
WPG +0.7
NSH +0.7
UTA +0.7
VGK +0.7

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 6, 2026 9:23 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:55 STL Jimmy Snuggerud (11) Cam Fowler (19), Dylan Holloway (11) · wrist xG 0.07 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
14:31 SJS Macklin Celebrini (31) Dmitry Orlov (24), Tyler Toffoli (23) · wrist xG 0.04 1–1 ▶
17:46 STL Robert Thomas (14) Jimmy Snuggerud (16), Dylan Holloway (12) · snap xG 0.15 2–1 ▶
3rd Period
13:26 SJS Kiefer Sherwood (19) Philipp Kurashev (13), Collin Graf (19) · slap xG 0.11 2–2 ▶
Overtime
0:54 STL Robert Thomas (15) Philip Broberg (18), Dylan Holloway (13) · wrist xG 0.39 3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 48%Deserve to win52% SJS
STLSJS
2.21Expected goals2.31
3Goals (no shootout)2
1.59Expected goals, 5 on 51.97
32Shot attempts52
22Unblocked attempts40
14Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
3:40 STL No shift No shift · Walker, 11:54 on the bench
No shift from 10:24 of the 2nd to 5:30 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (6:26) before that
13:10 STL No shift No shift · Kyrou, 16:57 on the bench
No shift after 3:03 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (10:34) before that
13:26 SJS Deserve to win Deserve to win · SJS takes the lead, 60–40%
STL had led since 2:50 of the 1st, by as much as 68%

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SJS shoots
Pius Suter: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 2:16) Jordan Kyrou: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 2:50) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 3:21) Tyler Toffoli: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:10) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 4:38) Shakir Mukhamadullin: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:11) Philipp Kurashev: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:34) John Klingberg: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:39) John Klingberg: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:45) William Eklund: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:55) Michael Misa: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:56) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 8:58) John Klingberg: slap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:03) Philipp Kurashev: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 10:57) Zack Ostapchuk: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:30) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:31) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 12:53) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:57) Shakir Mukhamadullin: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:16) Robert Thomas: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 1:13) Robert Thomas: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:14) Pavel Buchnevich: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 1:34) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:56) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 90 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:05) John Klingberg: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:38) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:54) Macklin Celebrini: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:06) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:58) Pavel Buchnevich: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:11) Shakir Mukhamadullin: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:22) Dylan Holloway: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 7:38) Robert Thomas: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:52) Adam Gaudette: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:55) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 180 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:12) Jack Finley: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:16) Jack Finley: bat, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:17) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:15) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:48) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:04) Pius Suter: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:07) Jonatan Berggren: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 15:10) Pius Suter: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:11) William Eklund: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:58) Alexander Wennberg: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:00) Mario Ferraro: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:18) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:36) Barclay Goodrow: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 4:32) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:28) Shakir Mukhamadullin: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:29) Sam Dickinson: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:41) Will Smith: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 10:51) Macklin Celebrini: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:21) Collin Graf: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:59) Philipp Kurashev: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 13:04) Will Smith: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 17:54) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:24) Philip Broberg: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 0:52) Jimmy Snuggerud: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:55) Macklin Celebrini: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:31) Robert Thomas: GOAL, snap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:46) Kiefer Sherwood: GOAL, slap, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 13:26) Robert Thomas: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.39 (OT 0:54)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Robert Thomas 202 +3 50.96 0119:06
29 Jonatan Berggren 000 -2 30.12 1017:32
89 Pavel Buchnevich 000 -1 30.26 0117:17
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 112 +1 20.19 2017:08
22 Pius Suter 000 0 30.20 0016:14
81 Dylan Holloway 033 +3 50.17 2115:48
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 -1 00.00 1112:41
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 -1 20.03 2011:21
37 Jack Finley 000 0 20.05 2011:10
63 Jake Neighbours 000 0 00.00 1011:02
70 Oskar Sundqvist 000 0 00.00 3010:39
25 Jordan Kyrou 000 0 10.14 0010:34
26 Nathan Walker 000 0 00.00 2210:03
Defense
6 Philip Broberg 011 +1 10.08 0032:51
17 Cam Fowler 011 0 00.00 0126:53
23 Logan Mailloux 000 -2 30.00 2225:03
75 Tyler Tucker 000 +1 10.00 1118:59
4 Matthew Kessel 000 +1 10.00 0214:21
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jordan Binnington 25223 .920 2.31 +0.31

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Macklin Celebrini 101 -1 70.27 1021:36
21 Alexander Wennberg 000 0 10.09 0020:22
27 William Eklund 000 0 20.04 1417:32
2 Will Smith 000 0 30.15 0016:31
96 Philipp Kurashev 011 +1 30.33 0015:58
44 Kiefer Sherwood 101 +1 30.11 8015:34
77 Michael Misa 000 0 10.04 0015:18
51 Collin Graf 011 0 10.12 1214:09
73 Tyler Toffoli 011 +1 40.19 0014:02
81 Adam Gaudette 000 -1 30.20 0011:30
63 Zack Ostapchuk 000 -1 10.14 4009:42
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 -1 20.11 1109:04
Defense
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin 000 0 50.12 1022:47
38 Mario Ferraro 000 0 20.03 2120:38
3 John Klingberg 000 -1 50.03 2019:46
9 Dmitry Orlov 011 0 20.09 2119:12
6 Sam Dickinson 000 -1 70.25 0017:53
73 Vincent Desharnais 000 0 00.00 2017:08
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic 14311 .786 2.21 -0.79

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
18 Robert Thomas C +3.00 +1.50 +0.62 +0.88 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 19:06
81 Dylan Holloway L +2.86 +1.65 +0.11 +0.92 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 15:48
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +2.20 +1.45 +0.13 +0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:08
75 Tyler Tucker D +1.37 0.00 0.00 +1.17 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 18:59
6 Philip Broberg D +0.72 +0.70 +0.05 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 32:51
17 Cam Fowler D +0.49 +0.70 0.00 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 26:53
50 Jordan Binnington G +0.31 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.31 60:54
25 Jordan Kyrou R +0.17 0.00 +0.09 +0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:34
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +0.11 0.00 +0.17 -0.05 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 17:17
63 Jake Neighbours L +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 11:02
70 Oskar Sundqvist C 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:39
37 Jack Finley C -0.01 0.00 +0.04 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:10
13 Alexey Toropchenko R -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:41
51 Matthew Kessel D -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 14:21
22 Pius Suter C -0.33 0.00 +0.13 -0.42 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 16:14
26 Nathan Walker L -0.62 0.00 0.00 -0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 10:03
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R -1.01 0.00 +0.02 -1.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 11:21
29 Jonatan Berggren R -1.48 0.00 +0.08 -1.39 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:32
23 Logan Mailloux D -1.49 0.00 0.00 -1.59 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:03

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
96 Philipp Kurashev C +1.55 +0.70 +0.21 +0.66 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:58
44 Kiefer Sherwood L +1.49 +0.75 +0.07 +0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:34
9 Dmitry Orlov D +1.20 +0.70 +0.06 +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:12
73 Tyler Toffoli C +1.11 +0.55 +0.13 +0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:02
51 Collin Graf R +0.89 +0.55 +0.08 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 14:09
71 Macklin Celebrini C +0.85 +0.75 +0.18 -0.08 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 21:36
5 Vincent Desharnais D +0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.58 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:08
21 Alexander Wennberg C +0.45 0.00 +0.06 +0.38 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 20:22
77 Michael Misa C +0.27 0.00 +0.03 +0.03 +0.15 +0.07 0.00 — 15:18
72 William Eklund L +0.24 0.00 +0.03 +0.02 0.00 -0.01 +0.20 — 17:32
6 Sam Dickinson D +0.07 0.00 +0.16 +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.12 — 17:53
38 Mario Ferraro D +0.06 0.00 +0.02 +0.15 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 20:38
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D 0.00 0.00 +0.08 -0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:47
81 Adam Gaudette R -0.04 0.00 +0.13 -0.20 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 11:30
23 Barclay Goodrow C -0.06 0.00 +0.07 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:04
2 Will Smith C -0.19 0.00 +0.10 -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 16:31
63 Zack Ostapchuk C -0.30 0.00 +0.09 -0.18 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 9:42
3 John Klingberg D -0.55 0.00 +0.02 -0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:46
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G -0.79 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.79 60:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.