Nashville PredatorsNSH 3–4 Final/SO Vancouver CanucksVAN

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Final/SO	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	SO	T	SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH	1	2	0	0	0	3	19
Vancouver CanucksVAN	1	0	2	0	1	4	27

Playoff odds, %	Change
NSH	-8.1
VAN	+0.0
SJS	+1.6
SEA	+1.4
LAK	+1.2
VGK	+1.0
EDM	+0.9
WPG	+0.6
UTA	+0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 12, 2026 9:56 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:40	VAN	Brock Boeser (16) Marco Rossi (13), Filip Hronek (31) · tip-in xG 0.09	0–1 ▶
18:28	NSH	Tyson Jost (5) Justin Barron (6), Fedor Svechkov (10) · wrist xG 0.08	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:20	NSH	Tyson Jost (6) Roman Josi (33), Ryan Ufko (2) · wrist xG 0.23	2–1 ▶
14:06	NSH	Matthew Wood (14) Unassisted · snap xG 0.03	3–1 ▶
3rd Period
15:55	VAN	Marco Rossi (7) Liam Ohgren (6) · wrist xG 0.25	3–2 ▶
18:59	VAN	Filip Hronek (7) Brock Boeser (15), Marco Rossi (14) · snap xG 0.15	3–3 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
	VAN	Liam Ohgren vs Juuse Saros	Saved
	NSH	Ryan O'Reilly vs Nikita Tolopilo	Missed
	VAN	Jake DeBrusk vs Juuse Saros	Goal
	NSH	Filip Forsberg vs Nikita Tolopilo	Missed
	VAN	Elias Pettersson vs Juuse Saros	Saved
	NSH	Steven Stamkos vs Nikita Tolopilo	Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 15%Deserve to win85% VAN

NSH		VAN
2.09	Expected goals	4.64
3	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.68	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.40
43	Shot attempts	66
31	Unblocked attempts	49
19	Shots on goal	27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
13:00	VAN	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.26–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 3:20 to 13:20 of the 1st; goals 1–0
3rd Period
1:50	NSH	No shift	No shift · Schaefer, 10:43 on the bench No shift from 7:11 of the 2nd to 2:28 of the 3rd; 6 shifts (4:34) before that
13:49	NSH	Goalie	Goalie · Saros +2.1 goals saved 1 goal on 3.07 xG, 20 shots on goal
17:52	VAN	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Tolopilo, down 3–2 With 2:08 left; VAN scored at 18:59 of the 3rd (3–3)
18:20	VAN	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.44–0.23 In xG over 10 minutes, 8:20 to 18:20 of the 3rd; goals 1–0

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VAN shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
90	Ryan O'Reilly	0	0	0	-1	3	0.36	1	2	23:14
9	Filip Forsberg	0	0	0	0	6	0.04	0	3	21:51
77	Luke Evangelista	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	0	1	21:12
91	Steven Stamkos	0	0	0	-2	3	0.24	3	2	20:46
56	Erik Haula	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	19:00
81	Jonathan Marchessault	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	2	0	17:00
9	Fedor Svechkov	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	2	0	14:24
17	Tyson Jost	2	0	2	+1	4	0.52	1	1	13:00
89	Ozzy Wiesblatt	0	0	0	+2	1	0.00	5	0	12:21
71	Matthew Wood	1	0	1	+1	4	0.12	1	0	10:48
68	Zachary L'Heureux	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	1	08:38
49	Reid Schaefer	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	3	0	07:07
Defense
59	Roman Josi	0	1	1	0	5	0.28	0	3	28:35
76	Brady Skjei	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	1	1	23:48
41	Nicolas Hague	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	0	0	22:47
48	Nick Perbix	0	0	0	-1	4	0.08	0	1	20:01
72	Justin Barron	0	1	1	+1	1	0.09	1	1	14:33
12	Ryan Ufko	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	0	0	13:55

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Juuse Saros	27	3	24	.889	4.64	+1.64

Vancouver Canucks

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
40	Elias Pettersson	0	0	0	+1	8	0.63	2	0	19:36
73	Teddy Blueger	0	0	0	-1	3	0.10	2	0	19:16
18	Drew O'Connor	0	0	0	+1	7	0.96	2	1	18:40
6	Brock Boeser	1	1	2	+2	5	0.70	0	0	18:26
91	Evander Kane	0	0	0	0	7	0.43	0	1	17:44
92	Liam Ohgren	0	1	1	0	9	0.42	0	0	16:47
63	Max Sasson	0	0	0	0	3	0.19	1	0	15:58
94	Linus Karlsson	0	0	0	-1	1	0.15	1	0	14:40
23	Marco Rossi	1	2	3	+2	2	0.29	0	0	14:08
74	Jake DeBrusk	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	0	0	11:25
54	Aatu Räty	0	0	0	-1	3	0.06	1	0	10:15
42	Curtis Douglas	0	0	0	-1	3	0.27	2	0	09:53
Defense
17	Filip Hronek	1	1	2	+3	6	0.19	1	3	29:03
26	Marcus Pettersson	0	0	0	-1	2	0.10	2	2	24:54
5	Tom Willander	0	0	0	-1	2	0.00	0	2	23:04
8	Zeev Buium	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	0	18:44
25	Elias Pettersson	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	1	1	17:14
90	Victor Mancini	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	2	1	12:20

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Nikita Tolopilo	19	3	16	.842	2.09	-0.91

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
17 Tyson Jost C	+2.08	+1.50	+0.34	+0.06	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	13:00
74 Juuse Saros G	+1.64	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.64	65:00
71 Matthew Wood R	+1.02	+0.75	+0.08	+0.21	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	10:48
85 Ryan Ufko D	+0.94	+0.55	+0.02	+0.39	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:55
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C	+0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:21
40 Fedor Svechkov C	+0.64	+0.55	+0.02	+0.06	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	14:24
59 Roman Josi D	+0.43	+0.70	+0.18	-0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	28:35
68 Zachary L'Heureux L	+0.19	0.00	+0.01	+0.11	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	8:38
20 Justin Barron D	+0.07	+0.70	+0.06	-0.72	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:33
49 Reid Schaefer L	+0.06	0.00	+0.09	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:07
9 Filip Forsberg L	-0.40	0.00	+0.02	-0.53	0.00	0.00	+0.11	—	21:51
76 Brady Skjei D	-0.49	0.00	+0.04	-0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	23:48
48 Nick Perbix D	-0.71	0.00	+0.06	-0.75	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	20:01
90 Ryan O'Reilly C	-0.71	0.00	+0.23	-0.88	-0.15	-0.01	+0.10	—	23:14
56 Erik Haula L	-1.00	0.00	0.00	-0.97	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	19:00
81 Jonathan Marchessault R	-1.09	0.00	+0.03	-1.08	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	17:00
91 Steven Stamkos C	-1.17	0.00	+0.16	-1.54	+0.15	-0.02	+0.08	—	20:46
77 Luke Evangelista R	-1.20	0.00	+0.03	-1.28	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:12
41 Nicolas Hague D	-1.21	0.00	+0.01	-1.24	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	22:47

Vancouver Canucks

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
17 Filip Hronek D	+3.71	+1.30	+0.12	+2.00	+0.15	0.00	+0.13	—	29:03
93 Marco Rossi C	+2.99	+2.00	+0.19	+0.89	-0.15	+0.05	+0.02	—	14:08
6 Brock Boeser R	+2.60	+1.45	+0.46	+0.72	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:26
18 Drew O'Connor L	+1.55	0.00	+0.62	+0.88	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	18:40
92 Liam Ohgren L	+1.50	+0.70	+0.27	+0.51	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	16:47
40 Elias Pettersson C	+1.49	0.00	+0.41	+1.03	0.00	+0.07	-0.02	—	19:36
91 Evander Kane L	+1.27	0.00	+0.28	+0.94	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:44
24 Zeev Buium D	+1.07	0.00	0.00	+1.13	0.00	0.00	-0.06	—	18:44
25 Elias Pettersson D	+0.70	0.00	+0.05	+0.62	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:14
29 Marcus Pettersson D	+0.41	0.00	+0.07	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	24:54
94 Linus Karlsson C	+0.26	0.00	+0.10	+0.18	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:40
63 Max Sasson C	+0.24	0.00	+0.12	+0.14	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:58
42 Curtis Douglas C	+0.18	0.00	+0.17	+0.16	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	9:53
5 Tom Willander D	+0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	23:04
54 Aatu Räty C	+0.02	0.00	+0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:15
53 Teddy Blueger C	-0.03	0.00	+0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	+0.02	—	19:16
74 Jake DeBrusk L	-0.09	0.00	+0.04	-0.11	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:25
90 Victor Mancini D	-0.53	0.00	0.00	-0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:20
60 Nikita Tolopilo G	-0.91	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.91	63:53

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.