Ottawa SenatorsOTT 1–4 Final Washington CapitalsWSH

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Ottawa SenatorsOTT	0	0	1	1	35
Washington CapitalsWSH	0	2	2	4	25

Playoff odds, %	Change
OTT	-8.5
WSH	+1.4
BOS	+1.9
DET	+1.9
CBJ	+0.9
NYI	+0.6
MTL	+0.5
PIT	+0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 18, 2026 6:39 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
8:09	WSH	Alex Ovechkin (25) Rasmus Sandin (21) · tip-in xG 0.08	0–1 ▶
18:13	WSH	Tom Wilson (25) Trevor van Riemsdyk (8), Pierre-Luc Dubois (4) · snap xG 0.05	0–2 ▶
3rd Period
17:19	OTT	Tim Stützle (31) Claude Giroux (31), Thomas Chabot (23) · tip-in xG 0.11	1–2 ▶
18:28	WSH	Aliaksei Protas (22)EN Connor McMichael (24) · wrist xG 0.58	1–3 ▶
19:34	WSH	Cole Hutson (1)PPEN Unassisted · snap xG 0.41	1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

OTT 60%Deserve to win40% WSH

OTT		WSH
3.55	Expected goals	4.17
1	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.07	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.46
77	Shot attempts	56
57	Unblocked attempts	44
35	Shots on goal	25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
13:45	OTT	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · OTT takes the lead, 61–39% WSH had led since 6:35 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
2nd Period
5:00	WSH	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced OTT 1.18–0.16 In xG over 10 minutes, 15:00 of the 1st to 5:00 of the 2nd; neither team scored
11:19	WSH	Goalie	Goalie · Thompson +2.1 goals saved 0 goals on 2.09 xG, 21 shots on goal
3rd Period
16:35	OTT	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Ullmark, down 2–0 With 3:25 left; OTT scored at 17:19 of the 3rd (1–2)
19:20	OTT	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Ullmark, down 3–1 With 0:40 left; WSH scored at 19:34 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WSH shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Ottawa Senators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
18	Tim Stützle	1	0	1	-1	8	0.51	4	0	21:09
12	Shane Pinto	0	0	0	-1	9	0.46	1	1	19:04
8	Brady Tkachuk	0	0	0	-1	6	0.41	0	0	18:30
24	Dylan Cozens	0	0	0	-1	5	0.14	1	0	18:25
19	Drake Batherson	0	0	0	-1	4	0.29	0	0	17:05
71	Ridly Greig	0	0	0	-1	7	0.29	0	0	16:39
22	Michael Amadio	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	0	0	14:15
21	Nick Cousins	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	3	0	13:20
28	Claude Giroux	0	1	1	0	6	0.26	0	0	13:20
20	Fabian Zetterlund	0	0	0	0	4	0.25	0	0	12:41
20	Lars Eller	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	11:42
37	Warren Foegele	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	0	1	10:41
Defense
72	Thomas Chabot	0	1	1	-2	6	0.18	2	2	28:06
10	Jordan Spence	0	0	0	0	5	0.14	0	0	24:04
2	Artem Zub	0	0	0	-2	5	0.11	1	1	20:41
43	Tyler Kleven	0	0	0	0	4	0.07	1	4	20:07
33	Nikolas Matinpalo	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	10:08
44	Dennis Gilbert	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	3	09:35

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Linus Ullmark	23	2	21	.913	2.89	+0.89

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
21	Aliaksei Protas	1	0	1	+1	5	0.71	0	1	19:38
43	Tom Wilson	1	0	1	+1	6	0.66	5	1	17:49
77	Connor McMichael	0	1	1	+1	4	0.07	1	1	17:34
80	Pierre-Luc Dubois	0	1	1	0	2	0.02	0	0	17:05
72	Anthony Beauvillier	0	0	0	+1	6	0.37	0	1	15:43
17	Dylan Strome	0	0	0	+1	4	0.42	0	0	14:15
53	Ethen Frank	0	0	0	0	5	0.32	1	0	13:26
24	Brandon Duhaime	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	3	1	13:08
8	Alex Ovechkin	1	0	1	+1	7	0.36	1	0	12:57
34	Justin Sourdif	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	3	2	11:54
9	Ryan Leonard	0	0	0	0	4	0.32	3	0	11:51
22	Hendrix Lapierre	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	11:19
Defense
3	Matt Roy	0	0	0	+1	3	0.09	2	0	23:31
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	5	21:52
38	Rasmus Sandin	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	2	4	20:09
6	Jakob Chychrun	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	3	18:01
57	Trevor van Riemsdyk	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	1	17:24
44	Cole Hutson	1	0	1	0	5	0.69	0	0	16:24

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	35	1	34	.971	3.55	+2.55

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Ottawa Senators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
28 Claude Giroux R	+1.28	+0.70	+0.17	+0.35	0.00	+0.04	+0.02	—	13:20
18 Tim Stützle C	+1.21	+0.75	+0.33	+0.13	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	21:09
35 Linus Ullmark G	+0.89	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.89	57:42
10 Jordan Spence D	+0.45	0.00	+0.09	+0.37	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	24:04
19 Drake Batherson R	+0.42	0.00	+0.19	+0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	17:05
7 Brady Tkachuk L	+0.21	0.00	+0.26	-0.13	0.00	+0.08	0.00	—	18:30
6 Dennis Gilbert D	+0.15	0.00	+0.02	-0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	9:33
72 Thomas Chabot D	+0.13	+0.55	+0.12	-0.60	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	28:06
20 Fabian Zetterlund L	+0.01	0.00	+0.16	-0.13	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:41
71 Ridly Greig C	+0.01	0.00	+0.19	-0.20	0.00	+0.04	-0.02	—	16:41
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D	0.00	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	10:08
43 Tyler Kleven D	-0.04	0.00	+0.05	-0.10	-0.15	0.00	+0.16	—	20:07
24 Dylan Cozens C	-0.15	0.00	+0.09	-0.25	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	18:25
12 Shane Pinto C	-0.21	0.00	+0.30	-0.59	0.00	+0.01	+0.07	—	19:04
21 Nick Cousins C	-0.21	0.00	+0.08	-0.44	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	13:20
37 Warren Foegele L	-0.23	0.00	+0.06	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:41
22 Michael Amadio R	-0.25	0.00	+0.09	-0.48	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:15
89 Lars Eller C	-0.26	0.00	+0.01	-0.27	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	11:42
2 Artem Zub D	-1.00	0.00	+0.07	-1.13	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:41

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
48 Logan Thompson G	+2.55	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.55	60:00
8 Alex Ovechkin L	+1.91	+0.75	+0.23	+0.95	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	12:57
21 Aliaksei Protas L	+1.67	+0.75	+0.46	+0.43	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	19:38
44 Cole Hutson D	+1.59	+0.75	+0.45	+0.41	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:24
38 Rasmus Sandin D	+1.38	+0.70	0.00	+0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	20:09
17 Dylan Strome C	+1.29	0.00	+0.27	+1.00	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	14:15
43 Tom Wilson R	+1.16	+0.75	+0.43	+0.25	-0.30	-0.01	+0.05	—	17:49
72 Anthony Beauvillier R	+1.00	0.00	+0.24	+0.71	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:43
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D	+0.77	+0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	17:24
24 Connor McMichael L	+0.66	+0.70	+0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	+0.05	—	17:34
3 Matt Roy D	+0.53	0.00	+0.06	+0.45	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	23:31
6 Jakob Chychrun D	+0.49	0.00	0.00	+0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.11	—	18:01
53 Ethen Frank R	+0.25	0.00	+0.21	+0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:26
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois C	+0.15	+0.55	+0.02	-0.33	0.00	-0.07	-0.02	—	17:05
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	+0.12	0.00	+0.03	+0.12	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	11:19
42 Martin Fehérváry D	+0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.39	+0.15	0.00	+0.25	—	21:52
34 Justin Sourdif C	-0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	+0.12	—	11:54
9 Ryan Leonard R	-0.22	0.00	+0.21	-0.41	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	11:51
22 Brandon Duhaime L	-0.23	0.00	+0.05	-0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	13:08

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.