Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 5–2 Final Edmonton OilersEDM

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	0	2	3	5	27
Edmonton OilersEDM	0	1	1	2	36

Playoff odds, %	Change
EDM	-6.0
TOR	+2.4
SJS	+1.1
ANA	+1.0
LAK	+0.9
UTA	+0.7
SEA	+0.7
VGK	+0.6
NSH	+0.6
NYI	-0.5
MTL	-0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 4, 2026 6:06 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
7:12	TOR	Matias Maccelli (9) Jake McCabe (15) · tip-in xG 0.08	1–0 ▶
11:09	EDM	Jake Walman (5) Josh Samanski (2), Jack Roslovic (9) · slap xG 0.05	1–1 ▶
11:18	TOR	Matthew Knies (14) Nicolas Roy (15) · backhand xG 0.12	2–1 ▶
3rd Period
4:27	EDM	Kasperi Kapanen (4) Vasily Podkolzin (12), Ty Emberson (10) · snap xG 0.16	2–2 ▶
7:42	TOR	John Tavares (20)PP William Nylander (34), Matthew Knies (32) · tip-in xG 0.16	3–2 ▶
8:13	TOR	Matias Maccelli (10)PP Max Domi (22), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (26) · snap xG 0.11	4–2 ▶
17:22	TOR	Bobby McMann (19)EN Auston Matthews (22) · wrist xG 0.48	5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 47%Deserve to win53% EDM

TOR		EDM
3.49	Expected goals	3.20
5	Goals (no shootout)	2
2.43	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.86
47	Shot attempts	68
38	Unblocked attempts	47
27	Shots on goal	36

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
17:20	EDM	No shift	No shift · Mangiapane, 15:58 on the bench No shift from 7:12 of the 2nd to 3:10 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (5:49) before that
3rd Period
1:10	TOR	No shift	No shift · Jarnkrok, 13:18 on the bench No shift from 11:09 of the 2nd to 4:27 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (5:05) before that
16:52	EDM	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Ingram, down 4–2 With 3:08 left; TOR scored at 17:22 of the 3rd (5–2)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ EDM shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	0	1	1	0	4	0.20	0	0	21:11
88	William Nylander	0	1	1	+1	3	0.26	0	1	17:46
74	Bobby McMann	1	0	1	0	5	0.88	4	0	17:36
11	Max Domi	0	1	1	-1	4	0.38	0	1	17:00
89	Matthew Knies	1	1	2	+1	2	0.16	1	0	15:28
21	Scott Laughton	0	0	0	0	5	0.20	2	1	15:05
91	John Tavares	1	0	1	+1	3	0.44	0	1	14:54
10	Nicolas Roy	0	1	1	+1	1	0.15	0	0	14:42
63	Matias Maccelli	2	0	2	+1	6	0.40	0	2	11:29
14	Nick Robertson	0	0	0	+1	2	0.27	1	2	11:25
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	11:09
19	Calle Jarnkrok	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	09:20
Defense
22	Jake McCabe	0	1	1	+2	4	0.02	1	3	25:16
28	Troy Stecher	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	0	1	22:35
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	1	1	-2	4	0.05	0	0	22:19
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	3	19:22
44	Simon Benoit	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	2	17:47
51	Philippe Myers	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	1	11:36

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Anthony Stolarz	36	2	34	.944	3.20	+1.20

Edmonton Oilers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
97	Connor McDavid	0	0	0	-1	8	0.50	0	1	21:49
29	Leon Draisaitl	0	0	0	-1	8	0.43	0	1	20:47
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	0	0	0	+1	8	0.47	0	0	18:18
18	Zach Hyman	0	0	0	-1	3	0.17	0	0	18:07
96	Jack Roslovic	0	1	1	-1	3	0.07	0	0	16:11
42	Kasperi Kapanen	1	0	1	+1	4	0.36	4	0	15:03
92	Vasily Podkolzin	0	1	1	+1	2	0.13	2	0	14:14
22	Matt Savoie	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	1	13:01
10	Trent Frederic	0	0	0	-1	3	0.14	4	0	11:35
13	Mattias Janmark	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	0	0	10:30
81	Josh Samanski	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	0	0	09:55
26	Andrew Mangiapane	0	0	0	-1	3	0.41	1	0	08:14
Defense
2	Evan Bouchard	0	0	0	-2	5	0.16	0	1	24:33
96	Jake Walman	1	0	1	0	5	0.11	1	1	21:34
14	Mattias Ekholm	0	0	0	-1	3	0.04	0	0	20:54
25	Darnell Nurse	0	0	0	0	6	0.11	5	1	19:26
49	Ty Emberson	0	1	1	+1	2	0.00	2	1	17:04
24	Spencer Stastney	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	0	0	14:42

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Connor Ingram	26	4	22	.846	3.00	-1.00

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
63 Matias Maccelli L	+2.44	+1.50	+0.26	+0.63	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	11:29
23 Matthew Knies L	+1.79	+1.30	+0.10	+0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:28
22 Jake McCabe D	+1.45	+0.70	+0.02	+0.60	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	25:16
91 John Tavares C	+1.35	+0.75	+0.28	+0.35	0.00	-0.05	+0.01	—	14:54
41 Anthony Stolarz G	+1.20	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.20	60:00
88 William Nylander R	+1.05	+0.70	+0.17	+0.14	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	17:46
55 Nicolas Roy C	+0.87	+0.70	+0.10	+0.06	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	14:42
89 Nick Robertson L	+0.73	0.00	+0.17	+0.47	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	11:25
74 Bobby McMann C	+0.43	+0.75	+0.57	-0.91	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	17:36
34 Auston Matthews C	+0.43	+0.70	+0.13	-0.63	+0.15	+0.07	0.00	—	21:11
11 Max Domi C	+0.38	+0.70	+0.24	-0.61	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	17:00
28 Troy Stecher D	+0.30	0.00	+0.02	+0.14	+0.15	0.00	-0.01	—	22:35
51 Philippe Myers D	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	11:36
24 Scott Laughton C	-0.07	0.00	+0.13	-0.24	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	15:05
25 Brandon Carlo D	-0.21	0.00	+0.03	-0.37	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	19:22
2 Simon Benoit D	-0.39	0.00	0.00	-0.52	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	17:47
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-0.40	+0.55	+0.03	-0.84	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	22:19
18 Steven Lorentz C	-0.49	0.00	0.00	-0.51	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	11:09
19 Calle Jarnkrok C	-0.56	0.00	0.00	-0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:20

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
42 Kasperi Kapanen R	+1.45	+0.75	+0.23	+0.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:03
49 Ty Emberson D	+1.34	+0.55	0.00	+0.76	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	17:04
92 Vasily Podkolzin R	+1.34	+0.70	+0.08	+0.53	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	14:14
29 Leon Draisaitl C	+0.89	0.00	+0.28	+0.57	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	20:47
28 Jack Roslovic C	+0.83	+0.55	+0.04	+0.24	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	16:11
81 Josh Samanski C	+0.71	+0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	9:55
24 Spencer Stastney D	+0.71	0.00	0.00	+0.71	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:42
96 Jake Walman D	+0.54	+0.75	+0.07	-0.32	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:34
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	+0.49	0.00	+0.31	+0.21	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	18:18
97 Connor McDavid C	+0.36	0.00	+0.33	-0.15	+0.15	-0.04	+0.07	—	21:49
25 Darnell Nurse D	+0.32	0.00	+0.07	+0.26	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	19:26
10 Trent Frederic C	+0.06	0.00	+0.09	+0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	—	11:35
22 Matt Savoie C	0.00	0.00	+0.02	+0.08	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	13:01
18 Zach Hyman L	-0.04	0.00	+0.11	-0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:07
13 Mattias Janmark C	-0.08	0.00	+0.06	+0.05	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	10:30
14 Mattias Ekholm D	-0.12	0.00	+0.03	-0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:54
88 Andrew Mangiapane L	-0.20	0.00	+0.27	-0.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:14
2 Evan Bouchard D	-0.22	0.00	+0.10	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	24:33
39 Connor Ingram G	-1.00	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.00	59:30

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.