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Utah MammothUTA 5–4 Final/OT Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Utah MammothUTA 1121 5 25
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 1120 4 31
Playoff odds, % Change
CBJ -7.4
UTA +3.2
NYI +1.8
PIT +1.3
DET +0.9
BOS +0.8
EDM -0.7
WSH +0.6
MTL +0.6
LAK -0.6
SEA -0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 7, 2026 6:46 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
7:25 UTA Michael Carcone (13) Kevin Stenlund (10), Alexander Kerfoot (1) · snap xG 0.14 1–0 ▶
19:25 CBJ Damon Severson (5) Charlie Coyle (32), Mathieu Olivier (10) · slap xG 0.04 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
12:12 UTA Dylan Guenther (29) Clayton Keller (43), Nick DeSimone (4) · tip-in xG 0.07 2–1 ▶
16:03 CBJ Mathieu Olivier (12) Charlie Coyle (33), Damon Severson (21) · wrist xG 0.19 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
3:00 UTA Alexander Kerfoot (2) Michael Carcone (11), MacKenzie Weegar (19) · wrist xG 0.02 3–2
4:54 UTA Logan Cooley (16) Lawson Crouse (16), Ian Cole (15) · backhand xG 0.22 4–2
13:38 CBJ Adam Fantilli (18) Mason Marchment (17), Kirill Marchenko (31) · backhand xG 0.05 4–3
14:08 CBJ Mason Marchment (15) Kirill Marchenko (32), Adam Fantilli (26) · backhand xG 0.19 4–4
Overtime
2:08 UTA Logan Cooley (17) Clayton Keller (44), John Marino (26) · slap xG 0.22 5–4

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

UTA 39%Deserve to win61% CBJ
UTACBJ
2.38Expected goals3.03
5Goals (no shootout)4
2.03Expected goals, 5 on 52.80
52Shot attempts74
40Unblocked attempts47
25Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
17:34 UTA Deserve to win Deserve to win · UTA takes the lead, 60–40%
CBJ had led since 5:41 of the 1st, by as much as 63%
2nd Period
16:03 CBJ Deserve to win Deserve to win · CBJ takes the lead, 60–40%
UTA had led since 17:34 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
3rd Period
4:54 CBJ Goalie Goalie · Merzlikins −2.3 goals saved
4 goals on 1.73 xG, 19 shots on goal
20:00 CBJ No shift No shift · Zamula, 10:07 on the bench
No shift after 6:57 of the 3rd; 12 shifts (11:14) before that

Shot map

UTA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CBJ shoots
Dylan Guenther: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:17) Lawson Crouse: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:54) Adam Fantilli: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:14) Kirill Marchenko: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:20) Kirill Marchenko: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:30) Miles Wood: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:58) Zach Werenski: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:10) Zach Werenski: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:13) Miles Wood: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:13) Clayton Keller: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:18) Kent Johnson: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 5:24) Sean Monahan: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 5:41) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:37) Sean Durzi: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:15) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 10:22) Logan Cooley: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:23) Jack McBain: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:18) Barrett Hayton: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:43) Sean Durzi: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:23) Jack McBain: tip-in, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:26) Cole Sillinger: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:05) Clayton Keller: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:37) Denton Mateychuk: backhand, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:01) Logan Cooley: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 17:34) JJ Peterka: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:15) Ivan Provorov: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:36) Nate Schmidt: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 0:39) Erik Gudbranson: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:55) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 151 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:03) Mason Marchment: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 2:11) Sean Monahan: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:23) Logan Cooley: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:49) Kent Johnson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:05) Zach Werenski: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:14) Adam Fantilli: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:06) Adam Fantilli: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:33) Ivan Provorov: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:38) Adam Fantilli: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:40) Kirill Marchenko: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:58) Nick DeSimone: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:15) Kirill Marchenko: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:24) Jack McBain: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 13:37) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:14) Damon Severson: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:54) Charlie Coyle: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 15:59) Charlie Coyle: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:00) Adam Fantilli: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:43) Mathieu Olivier: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 17:24) Sean Durzi: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:55) Damon Severson: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:31) Mason Marchment: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:41) Kent Johnson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 2:03) Jack McBain: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:15) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 76 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:23) Conor Garland: backhand, 81 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:34) Zach Werenski: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:46) Kirill Marchenko: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:15) Mason Marchment: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:17) Barrett Hayton: deflected, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:41) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:32) Ian Cole: slap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:45) Jack McBain: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:22) Alexander Kerfoot: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:50) Ivan Provorov: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:10) Zach Werenski: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:20) Sean Durzi: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:42) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:43) Isac Lundeström: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:10) Logan Cooley: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:42) Kirill Marchenko: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:51) Lawson Crouse: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:06) Adam Fantilli: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 17:23) Zach Werenski: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:33) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 18:36) MacKenzie Weegar: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:42) Nate Schmidt: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:46) Ivan Provorov: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:48) Kirill Marchenko: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 0:13) Michael Carcone: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 7:25) Damon Severson: GOAL, slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:25) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:12) Mathieu Olivier: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 16:03) Alexander Kerfoot: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:00) Logan Cooley: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 4:54) Adam Fantilli: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:38) Mason Marchment: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 14:08) Logan Cooley: GOAL, slap, 16 ft, xG 0.22 (OT 2:08)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
8 Nick Schmaltz 000 -1 10.05 0319:56
9 Clayton Keller 022 0 20.11 0118:29
11 Dylan Guenther 101 -1 70.36 0018:18
92 Logan Cooley 202 +1 60.82 1218:02
67 Lawson Crouse 011 0 60.21 1217:02
27 Barrett Hayton 000 0 40.02 3115:34
22 Jack McBain 000 +2 60.32 3014:40
10 JJ Peterka 000 0 10.05 0014:04
56 Kailer Yamamoto 000 0 00.00 1012:56
82 Kevin Stenlund 011 +1 00.00 0011:45
14 Alexander Kerfoot 112 0 30.06 0310:12
53 Michael Carcone 112 0 20.14 0009:58
Defense
52 MacKenzie Weegar 011 0 30.04 2323:21
5 Sean Durzi 000 0 50.16 0223:06
88 Nate Schmidt 000 -1 20.01 1121:02
6 John Marino 011 -1 00.00 1220:47
28 Ian Cole 011 +1 10.01 0118:07
57 Nick DeSimone 011 +2 30.01 0315:05
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 31427 .871 3.03 -0.97

Columbus Blue Jackets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
19 Adam Fantilli 112 +2 120.63 1020:04
86 Kirill Marchenko 022 +1 70.41 2019:58
27 Mason Marchment 112 +1 70.42 2219:20
23 Sean Monahan 000 -1 20.18 2116:57
83 Conor Garland 000 -2 20.00 3016:40
91 Kent Johnson 000 -1 60.29 1115:45
3 Charlie Coyle 022 0 20.33 2014:58
4 Cole Sillinger 000 +1 10.05 2014:25
22 Boone Jenner 000 -2 10.00 5111:59
21 Isac Lundeström 000 -1 10.02 1011:40
24 Mathieu Olivier 112 +1 40.31 2011:29
18 Miles Wood 000 -1 30.03 1011:05
Defense
8 Zach Werenski 000 -1 130.18 0326:53
9 Ivan Provorov 000 -2 60.11 0123:22
78 Damon Severson 112 +1 40.05 0023:14
5 Denton Mateychuk 000 0 10.01 0018:13
44 Erik Gudbranson 000 +1 10.02 1017:08
6 Egor Zamula 000 0 10.00 0211:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Elvis Merzlikins 25520 .800 2.38 -2.62

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
92 Logan Cooley C +2.29 +1.50 +0.53 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 18:02
9 Clayton Keller R +1.55 +1.40 +0.07 +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:29
57 Nick DeSimone D +1.34 +0.55 +0.01 +0.65 +0.02 0.00 +0.11 — 15:05
28 Ian Cole D +0.99 +0.55 0.00 +0.31 +0.08 0.00 +0.05 — 18:07
15 Alexander Kerfoot C +0.98 +1.30 +0.04 -0.54 +0.05 -0.01 +0.13 — 10:12
53 Michael Carcone L +0.81 +1.45 +0.09 -0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 9:58
67 Lawson Crouse L +0.77 +0.70 +0.14 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:02
52 MacKenzie Weegar D +0.76 +0.55 +0.02 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 23:21
22 Jack McBain C +0.73 0.00 +0.21 +0.59 0.00 -0.01 -0.06 — 14:40
11 Dylan Guenther R +0.73 +0.75 +0.24 -0.09 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:18
50 Sean Durzi D +0.32 0.00 +0.11 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 23:06
82 Kevin Stenlund C +0.18 +0.70 0.00 -0.46 0.00 -0.06 0.00 — 11:45
8 Nick Schmaltz C +0.06 0.00 +0.03 -0.11 0.00 +0.03 +0.11 — 19:56
56 Kailer Yamamoto R -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:56
77 JJ Peterka R -0.40 0.00 +0.04 -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:04
27 Barrett Hayton C -0.51 0.00 +0.01 -0.43 -0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 15:34
6 John Marino D -0.81 +0.55 0.00 -1.47 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 20:47
70 Karel Vejmelka G -0.97 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.97 62:08
88 Nate Schmidt D -1.28 0.00 +0.01 -1.33 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:02

Columbus Blue Jackets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
17 Mason Marchment L +2.65 +1.45 +0.27 +0.85 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:20
19 Adam Fantilli C +2.60 +1.30 +0.41 +0.86 0.00 +0.06 -0.02 — 20:04
24 Mathieu Olivier R +2.29 +1.30 +0.20 +0.86 -0.08 0.00 0.00 — 11:29
3 Charlie Coyle C +2.25 +1.40 +0.22 +0.66 -0.02 0.00 0.00 — 14:58
86 Kirill Marchenko R +2.14 +1.25 +0.27 +0.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:58
78 Damon Severson D +1.42 +1.30 +0.04 +0.14 -0.05 0.00 0.00 — 23:14
9 Ivan Provorov D +0.53 0.00 +0.07 +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:22
4 Cole Sillinger C +0.47 0.00 +0.03 +0.46 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 14:25
5 Denton Mateychuk D +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:13
6 Egor Zamula D +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 11:14
44 Erik Gudbranson D +0.34 0.00 +0.01 +0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:08
23 Sean Monahan C +0.28 0.00 +0.11 +0.13 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:57
8 Zach Werenski D -0.04 0.00 +0.12 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 26:53
21 Isac Lundeström C -0.05 0.00 +0.01 -0.08 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 11:40
91 Kent Johnson C -0.14 0.00 +0.19 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:45
83 Conor Garland R -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:40
11 Miles Wood L -0.33 0.00 +0.02 -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 11:05
38 Boone Jenner C -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.59 +0.15 -0.02 +0.01 — 11:59
90 Elvis Merzlikins G -2.47 0.00 — — +0.15 — — -2.62 62:08

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.