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Montréal CanadiensMTL 4–1 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Montréal CanadiensMTL 130 4 32
Nashville PredatorsNSH 001 1 24
Playoff odds, % Change
NSH -9.7
MTL +1.8
LAK +2.6
VGK +1.6
SEA +1.4
STL +1.3
UTA +1.2
WPG +0.8
DET -0.6
SJS +0.6
NYI -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 28, 2026 6:50 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:34 MTL Ivan Demidov (16) Nick Suzuki (63) · wrist xG 0.05 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
3:12 MTL Oliver Kapanen (22) Alex Newhook (11), Lane Hutson (60) · wrist xG 0.21 2–0 ▶
14:45 MTL Cole Caufield (45) Nick Suzuki (64) · wrist xG 0.10 3–0 ▶
16:23 MTL Alex Newhook (11) Ivan Demidov (40), Oliver Kapanen (15) · wrist xG 0.13 4–0 ▶
3rd Period
16:26 NSH Zachary L'Heureux (2) Ryan Ufko (4), Matthew Wood (11) · wrist xG 0.15 4–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

MTL 80%Deserve to win20% NSH
MTLNSH
4.02Expected goals2.06
4Goals (no shootout)1
2.86Expected goals, 5 on 51.34
57Shot attempts54
48Unblocked attempts37
32Shots on goal24

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
16:50 MTL No shift No shift · Anderson, 27:00 on the bench
No shift after 2:26 of the 2nd; 6 shifts (4:53) before that

Shot map

MTL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Filip Forsberg: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:16) Alex Newhook: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:03) Brendan Gallagher: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 3:09) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:31) Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 3:50) Cole Caufield: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:55) Nick Suzuki: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:07) Kaiden Guhle: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:26) Oliver Kapanen: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 4:47) Cole Caufield: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:35) Ivan Demidov: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:28) Noah Dobson: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:42) Erik Haula: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:32) Lane Hutson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:54) Kaiden Guhle: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:50) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:14) Zachary L'Heureux: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:27) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:28) Ivan Demidov: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 17:24) Alex Newhook: between-legs, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 17:26) Joseph Veleno: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 18:47) Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:58) Juraj Slafkovský: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:34) Juraj Slafkovský: bat, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:35) Nick Perbix: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:46) Alex Newhook: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:07) Erik Haula: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:25) Erik Haula: backhand, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:42) Luke Evangelista: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:57) Filip Forsberg: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:33) Nick Suzuki: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:50) Erik Haula: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:14) Erik Haula: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 5:40) Nick Perbix: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:03) Tyson Jost: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 7:30) Tyson Jost: deflected, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:44) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:28) Filip Forsberg: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:42) Oliver Kapanen: wrist, 129 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:53) Joseph Veleno: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 9:14) Zachary L'Heureux: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 9:30) Brady Skjei: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:02) Oliver Kapanen: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:23) Cole Caufield: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:52) Nick Suzuki: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:56) Cole Caufield: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 11:17) Jake Evans: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:57) Brady Skjei: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:49) Lane Hutson: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:32) Joseph Veleno: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:43) Ivan Demidov: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:18) Steven Stamkos: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:42) Noah Dobson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:22) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:33) Nick Suzuki: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:59) Nick Suzuki: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 0:29) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:14) Steven Stamkos: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:15) Brendan Gallagher: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 3:14) Lane Hutson: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:07) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:19) Erik Haula: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:26) Brendan Gallagher: tip-in, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:27) Jayden Struble: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:04) Tyson Jost: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:42) Reid Schaefer: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:21) Brendan Gallagher: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:49) Noah Dobson: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:54) Ryan O'Reilly: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 9:08) Ivan Demidov: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 9:23) Cole Caufield: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 10:29) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:10) Roman Josi: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:32) Jonathan Marchessault: backhand, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:52) Filip Forsberg: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 14:40) Joseph Veleno: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.24 (P3 14:48) Filip Forsberg: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:12) Reid Schaefer: tip-in, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:15) Juraj Slafkovský: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 18:38) Zachary Bolduc: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 19:50) Ivan Demidov: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:34) Oliver Kapanen: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 3:12) Cole Caufield: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:45) Alex Newhook: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:23) Zachary L'Heureux: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 16:26)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Montréal Canadiens

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Nick Suzuki 022 +1 50.45 0018:53
20 Juraj Slafkovský 000 +1 50.45 1016:45
13 Cole Caufield 101 +1 60.50 0016:28
24 Phillip Danault 000 -1 00.00 0216:18
93 Ivan Demidov 112 +3 50.53 2016:11
91 Oliver Kapanen 112 +3 60.39 0016:05
15 Alex Newhook 112 +3 40.34 1115:11
76 Zachary Bolduc 000 0 20.14 3214:47
90 Joseph Veleno 000 -1 50.63 4113:44
7 Brendan Gallagher 000 0 40.34 1113:15
71 Jake Evans 000 -1 20.14 0012:59
17 Josh Anderson 000 0 00.00 1004:53
Defense
53 Noah Dobson 000 0 40.03 1321:34
48 Lane Hutson 011 +2 30.04 0221:19
8 Mike Matheson 000 -1 10.00 5120:47
45 Alexandre Carrier 000 +1 00.00 1219:15
21 Kaiden Guhle 000 +3 30.03 0117:23
3 Jayden Struble 000 +1 20.01 0016:13
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jacob Fowler 24123 .958 2.06 +1.06

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
77 Luke Evangelista 000 -2 40.10 0019:26
17 Tyson Jost 000 -1 30.24 1119:11
9 Filip Forsberg 000 -1 80.25 1018:24
90 Ryan O'Reilly 000 -2 20.24 0017:41
81 Jonathan Marchessault 000 -1 50.07 0117:07
91 Steven Stamkos 000 0 60.09 1016:35
56 Erik Haula 000 0 70.45 9016:23
71 Matthew Wood 011 +1 00.00 1114:40
9 Fedor Svechkov 000 -1 10.00 1014:16
68 Zachary L'Heureux 101 0 30.38 5013:45
49 Reid Schaefer 000 -1 30.03 2012:09
Defense
59 Roman Josi 000 -1 20.02 0023:30
76 Brady Skjei 000 -2 30.05 0020:02
41 Nicolas Hague 000 -2 20.01 0020:00
2 Adam Wilsby 000 0 20.08 1014:31
72 Justin Barron 000 -1 00.00 2214:10
48 Nick Perbix 000 -1 30.03 0012:00
12 Ryan Ufko 011 0 00.00 1110:15
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 32428 .875 4.02 +0.02

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Montréal Canadiens

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
93 Ivan Demidov R +3.29 +1.45 +0.34 +1.54 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:11
15 Alex Newhook C +3.25 +1.45 +0.22 +1.56 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 15:11
91 Oliver Kapanen C +2.98 +1.30 +0.25 +1.53 0.00 -0.04 -0.06 — 16:05
48 Lane Hutson D +2.39 +0.55 +0.03 +1.70 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 21:19
14 Nick Suzuki C +1.92 +1.40 +0.29 +0.19 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 18:53
21 Kaiden Guhle D +1.61 0.00 +0.02 +1.54 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:23
13 Cole Caufield R +1.50 +0.75 +0.33 +0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:28
32 Jacob Fowler G +1.21 0.00 — — +0.15 — — +1.06 60:00
45 Alexandre Carrier D +0.94 0.00 0.00 +0.86 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:15
47 Jayden Struble D +0.82 0.00 0.00 +0.96 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:13
11 Brendan Gallagher R +0.81 0.00 +0.22 +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:15
20 Juraj Slafkovský L +0.49 0.00 +0.29 +0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:45
90 Joseph Veleno C +0.46 0.00 +0.41 +0.01 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 13:44
76 Zachary Bolduc R +0.37 0.00 +0.09 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 14:47
24 Phillip Danault C +0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 16:18
53 Noah Dobson D +0.13 0.00 +0.02 -0.15 +0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 21:34
17 Josh Anderson R -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 4:53
71 Jake Evans C -0.23 0.00 +0.09 -0.04 -0.30 +0.04 -0.02 — 12:59
8 Mike Matheson D -0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:47

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
68 Zachary L'Heureux L +1.00 +0.75 +0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:45
56 Erik Haula L +0.73 0.00 +0.29 +0.36 0.00 +0.08 0.00 — 16:23
85 Ryan Ufko D +0.68 +0.70 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 10:15
17 Tyson Jost C +0.48 0.00 +0.15 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 19:11
83 Adam Wilsby D +0.18 0.00 +0.05 +0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:31
71 Matthew Wood R +0.18 +0.55 0.00 -0.36 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 14:40
74 Juuse Saros G +0.02 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.02 60:00
90 Ryan O'Reilly C -0.42 0.00 +0.16 -0.54 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 17:41
91 Steven Stamkos C -0.43 0.00 +0.06 -0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:35
48 Nick Perbix D -0.51 0.00 +0.02 -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:00
76 Brady Skjei D -0.58 0.00 +0.03 -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:02
77 Luke Evangelista R -0.77 0.00 +0.07 -0.97 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 19:26
9 Filip Forsberg L -0.84 0.00 +0.16 -1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:24
81 Jonathan Marchessault R -0.87 0.00 +0.05 -0.98 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 17:07
20 Justin Barron D -0.95 0.00 0.00 -1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 14:10
49 Reid Schaefer L -1.11 0.00 +0.02 -1.15 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 12:09
59 Roman Josi D -1.22 0.00 +0.02 -1.20 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 23:30
40 Fedor Svechkov C -1.26 0.00 0.00 -1.24 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 14:16
41 Nicolas Hague D -1.38 0.00 0.00 -1.34 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.