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Detroit Red WingsDET 4–2 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Monday, March 2, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Detroit Red WingsDET 121 4 31
Nashville PredatorsNSH 110 2 30
Playoff odds, % Change
NSH -6.5
DET +5.4
EDM +1.3
UTA +1.1
OTT -1.0
CBJ -1.0
SEA +1.0
BOS -1.0
SJS +0.9
LAK +0.8
VGK +0.6
WSH -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 2, 2026 1:31 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:51 DET Emmitt Finnie (10) Marco Kasper (8), Mason Appleton (7) · wrist xG 0.29 1–0 ▶
17:02 NSH Filip Forsberg (26)PP Luke Evangelista (37), Roman Josi (30) · slap xG 0.08 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
7:10 NSH Jonathan Marchessault (11) Ryan O'Reilly (37) · wrist xG 0.28 1–2 ▶
9:45 DET Lucas Raymond (20) Alex DeBrincat (29), Andrew Copp (26) · wrist xG 0.13 2–2 ▶
16:36 DET Albert Johansson (2)SH Marco Kasper (9), Mason Appleton (8) · slap xG 0.15 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
19:32 DET Alex DeBrincat (31)EN Lucas Raymond (44) · backhand xG 0.90 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DET 42%Deserve to win58% NSH
DETNSH
3.73Expected goals3.34
4Goals (no shootout)2
2.27Expected goals, 5 on 52.52
53Shot attempts72
45Unblocked attempts51
31Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
20:00 DET Goalie change Goalie change · Talbot in for Gibson
The start of the 2nd; Gibson had allowed 1 goal on 11 shots (0.92 xG)
3rd Period
17:34 NSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Saros, down 3–2
With 2:26 left; DET scored at 19:32 of the 3rd (4–2)

Shot map

DET shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Nicolas Hague: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:07) Dominik Shine: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:26) Dylan Larkin: backhand, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:48) Lucas Raymond: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 2:54) Emmitt Finnie: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:25) Marco Kasper: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:49) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:20) Ryan O'Reilly: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:21) Marco Kasper: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:49) Mason Appleton: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:00) Michael Rasmussen: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:32) Matthew Wood: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:18) Tyson Jost: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:41) Tyson Jost: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:42) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 10:42) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 10:44) Andrew Copp: bat, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:45) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 12:01) Dylan Larkin: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 12:02) Albert Johansson: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:01) James van Riemsdyk: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:11) Roman Josi: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:22) Michael McCarron: bat, 4 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:23) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 14:45) J.T. Compher: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:33) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:38) Michael Bunting: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:07) Luke Evangelista: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:22) Roman Josi: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:29) Matthew Wood: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:35) Nick Perbix: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:40) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:49) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:18) Albert Johansson: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:21) Mason Appleton: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 2:55) Patrick Kane: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:27) Nicolas Hague: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:58) Zachary L'Heureux: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 5:16) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:29) Jacob Bernard-Docker: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:25) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:52) Tyson Jost: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:19) Tyson Jost: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:02) Patrick Kane: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:35) Jacob Bernard-Docker: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:28) Moritz Seider: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:39) Roman Josi: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:57) Andrew Copp: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:32) Emmitt Finnie: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 13:07) Emmitt Finnie: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:08) Steven Stamkos: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:55) Filip Forsberg: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:03) Roman Josi: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:49) Nick Blankenburg: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:04) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:32) Axel Sandin-Pellikka: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:36) Tyson Jost: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 18:22) Michael Rasmussen: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:41) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 19:54) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:23) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 0:35) James van Riemsdyk: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:04) Marco Kasper: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:05) Marco Kasper: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:06) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 4:20) Nicolas Hague: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:27) Filip Forsberg: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 4:45) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:22) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:32) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 6:00) Dylan Larkin: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 6:49) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:53) Jonathan Marchessault: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:25) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:29) Filip Forsberg: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:12) Michael Bunting: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:17) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 10:53) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:18) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 11:24) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:37) Patrick Kane: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 12:40) Mason Appleton: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:02) Tyson Jost: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:38) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:05) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:06) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:31) Erik Haula: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:00) Nick Perbix: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:49) Roman Josi: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 17:54) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:54) Emmitt Finnie: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.29 (P1 4:51) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, slap, 42 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 17:02) Jonathan Marchessault: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 7:10) Lucas Raymond: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 9:45) Albert Johansson: GOAL, slap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 16:36) Alex DeBrincat: GOAL, backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.90 (P3 19:32)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Detroit Red Wings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Dylan Larkin 000 0 70.58 0119:46
23 Lucas Raymond 112 +1 50.53 0017:59
27 Michael Rasmussen 000 0 20.17 0217:29
18 Andrew Copp 011 +1 20.05 0117:09
93 Alex DeBrincat 112 +1 61.10 1017:02
92 Marco Kasper 022 +2 40.12 1015:22
88 Patrick Kane 000 0 40.27 0214:47
22 Mason Appleton 022 +2 30.11 0013:58
58 Emmitt Finnie 101 +1 40.45 2111:31
37 J.T. Compher 000 0 30.09 0111:05
21 James van Riemsdyk 000 0 20.02 1110:01
65 Dominik Shine 000 0 10.01 1109:01
Defense
8 Ben Chiarot 000 +1 00.00 3423:45
53 Moritz Seider 000 +1 10.02 3323:36
77 Simon Edvinsson 000 +1 10.00 1022:52
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker 000 0 30.02 1119:52
20 Albert Johansson 101 +2 30.16 0116:40
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka 000 +1 20.02 0012:16
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
John Gibson 11110 .909 0.92 -0.08
Cam Talbot 19118 .947 2.41 +1.41

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 011 0 80.80 0021:33
91 Steven Stamkos 000 -1 50.32 0119:47
81 Jonathan Marchessault 101 -1 50.54 1019:34
9 Filip Forsberg 101 -1 120.42 0018:52
77 Luke Evangelista 011 -1 10.01 1018:09
56 Erik Haula 000 0 10.02 2116:15
58 Michael Bunting 000 -4 20.05 2013:32
17 Tyson Jost 000 0 60.30 1113:32
71 Matthew Wood 000 0 20.09 0012:23
68 Zachary L'Heureux 000 0 30.18 1012:03
22 Cole Smith 000 -2 00.00 1011:35
47 Michael McCarron 000 -2 20.08 2011:10
Defense
59 Roman Josi 011 -3 60.20 1226:09
76 Brady Skjei 000 -1 40.00 1022:46
41 Nicolas Hague 000 0 90.26 2121:24
48 Nick Perbix 000 0 40.04 1118:18
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 0 20.02 2115:39
72 Justin Barron 000 0 00.00 0008:01
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 30327 .900 2.83 -0.17

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Detroit Red Wings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
92 Marco Kasper C +1.88 +1.40 +0.08 +0.25 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:22
93 Alex DeBrincat R +1.81 +1.45 +0.71 -0.30 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 17:02
23 Lucas Raymond L +1.74 +1.45 +0.35 -0.19 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:59
58 Emmitt Finnie C +1.49 +0.75 +0.29 +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:31
22 Mason Appleton C +1.44 +1.10 +0.07 +0.39 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 13:58
39 Cam Talbot G +1.41 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.41 40:00
20 Albert Johansson D +1.13 +0.75 +0.10 +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:40
71 Dylan Larkin C +0.72 0.00 +0.38 +0.44 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 19:46
27 Michael Rasmussen C +0.66 0.00 +0.11 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:29
88 Patrick Kane R +0.65 0.00 +0.17 +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 14:47
44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka D +0.44 0.00 +0.01 +0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:16
18 Andrew Copp C +0.34 +0.55 +0.04 -0.26 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 17:09
8 Ben Chiarot D +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 23:45
36 John Gibson G -0.08 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.08 20:00
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D -0.08 0.00 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:52
53 Moritz Seider D -0.26 0.00 +0.01 -0.19 -0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 23:36
37 J.T. Compher L -0.47 0.00 +0.06 -0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:05
77 Simon Edvinsson D -0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 22:52
21 James van Riemsdyk L -0.60 0.00 +0.01 -0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:01
65 Dominik Shine R -0.66 0.00 +0.01 -0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:01

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +2.09 +0.70 +0.52 +0.84 0.00 +0.05 -0.02 — 21:33
81 Jonathan Marchessault R +1.74 +0.75 +0.35 +0.79 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:34
17 Tyson Jost C +1.25 0.00 +0.20 +0.84 +0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 13:32
91 Steven Stamkos C +1.21 0.00 +0.21 +0.93 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 19:47
68 Zachary L'Heureux L +0.95 0.00 +0.12 +0.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:03
41 Nicolas Hague D +0.80 0.00 +0.17 +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:24
71 Matthew Wood R +0.68 0.00 +0.06 +0.62 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 12:23
37 Nick Blankenburg D +0.65 0.00 +0.02 +0.44 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 15:39
48 Nick Perbix D +0.62 0.00 +0.02 +0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:18
9 Filip Forsberg L +0.35 +0.75 +0.28 -0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:52
59 Roman Josi D +0.30 +0.55 +0.13 -0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 26:09
77 Luke Evangelista R +0.24 +0.70 +0.01 -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:09
74 Juuse Saros G -0.17 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.17 57:01
20 Justin Barron D -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:01
56 Erik Haula L -0.48 0.00 +0.02 -0.49 0.00 -0.06 +0.05 — 16:15
76 Brady Skjei D -0.68 0.00 0.00 -0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:46
58 Michael Bunting L -0.82 0.00 +0.03 -0.83 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:32
36 Cole Smith R -0.93 0.00 0.00 -0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:35
47 Michael McCarron C -1.05 0.00 +0.05 -1.08 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 11:10

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.