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Ottawa SenatorsOTT 7–4 Final Seattle KrakenSEA

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 223 7 37
Seattle KrakenSEA 112 4 21
Playoff odds, % Change
OTT +6.6
SEA -6.2
EDM +1.7
DET -1.6
BOS -1.6
SJS +1.3
LAK +0.9
CBJ -0.8
WPG +0.7
NSH +0.6
MTL -0.6
PHI -0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 7, 2026 9:53 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:45 SEA Jacob Melanson (2) Ben Meyers (7), Ryan Winterton (13) · wrist xG 0.28 0–1 ▶
9:19 OTT Tyler Kleven (2) Shane Pinto (15), Michael Amadio (16) · snap xG 0.21 1–1 ▶
13:35 OTT Dylan Cozens (23) Thomas Chabot (20), Nick Jensen (13) · wrist xG 0.06 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:34 OTT Shane Pinto (17) Artem Zub (17), Nick Cousins (10) · deflected xG 0.21 3–1 ▶
10:09 OTT Michael Amadio (10) Shane Pinto (16), Nick Cousins (11) · wrist xG 0.16 4–1 ▶
15:00 SEA Eeli Tolvanen (12) Unassisted · slap xG 0.11 4–2 ▶
3rd Period
2:42 OTT Warren Foegele (8) Lars Eller (8) · wrist xG 0.23 5–2 ▶
3:58 OTT Tim Stützle (30) Drake Batherson (32) · wrist xG 0.11 6–2
7:24 OTT Brady Tkachuk (16) Thomas Chabot (21) · wrist xG 0.09 7–2
10:16 SEA Matty Beniers (16) Cale Fleury (2), Jordan Eberle (21) · tip-in xG 0.04 7–3
17:45 SEA Brandon Montour (8)PP Vince Dunn (28), Jordan Eberle (22) · slap xG 0.12 7–4

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

OTT 82%Deserve to win18% SEA
OTTSEA
4.10Expected goals2.00
7Goals (no shootout)4
3.54Expected goals, 5 on 51.63
72Shot attempts43
53Unblocked attempts34
37Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
1:34 OTT Deserve to win Deserve to win · OTT takes the lead, 65–35%
SEA had led since 8:45 of the 1st, by as much as 66%
6:00 OTT xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced SEA 1.00–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 16:00 of the 1st to 6:00 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
11:20 SEA No shift No shift · Schwartz, 32:41 on the bench
No shift after 19:19 of the 1st; 9 shifts (6:27) before that
3rd Period
2:42 SEA Goalie Goalie · Daccord −2.2 goals saved
5 goals on 2.80 xG, 29 shots on goal
4:20 OTT No shift No shift · Sanderson, 19:48 on the bench
No shift after 14:13 of the 2nd; 18 shifts (12:52) before that
17:45 OTT Goalie Goalie · Ullmark −2.1 goals saved
4 goals on 1.94 xG, 20 shots on goal

Shot map

OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SEA shoots
Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:09) Artem Zub: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:57) Dylan Cozens: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:12) Michael Amadio: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:09) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:58) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:36) Ridly Greig: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:50) Berkly Catton: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 5:13) Jared McCann: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:58) Ben Meyers: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:43) Michael Amadio: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:06) Eeli Tolvanen: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:44) Brandon Montour: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:14) Kaapo Kakko: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:46) Drake Batherson: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:51) Warren Foegele: tip-in, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:59) Thomas Chabot: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:05) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:16) Drake Batherson: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:40) Jordan Spence: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:09) Jake Sanderson: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:36) Drake Batherson: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:38) Ridly Greig: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 0:36) Artem Zub: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:32) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 3:45) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:50) Shane Pinto: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 5:31) Ryan Winterton: wrist, 155 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:34) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:45) Lars Eller: poke, 12 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 5:53) Lars Eller: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 6:15) Jamie Oleksiak: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:55) Berkly Catton: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:57) Warren Foegele: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:08) Jacob Melanson: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 9:28) Nick Cousins: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:59) Brandon Montour: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:56) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:11) Vince Dunn: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:36) Drake Batherson: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 13:27) Jake Sanderson: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:31) Ryker Evans: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:50) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:21) Nick Jensen: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:26) Brandon Montour: slap, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 16:38) Shane Pinto: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:50) Ridly Greig: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:15) Berkly Catton: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:26) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:22) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:26) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 0:34) Drake Batherson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:37) Ryker Evans: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:39) Michael Amadio: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:50) Ryan Winterton: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:19) Jordan Eberle: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:28) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 3:30) Jordan Spence: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:53) Ryan Winterton: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:03) Cale Fleury: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:09) Chandler Stephenson: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:56) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 5:05) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:48) Berkly Catton: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:58) Ridly Greig: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 8:45) Jamie Oleksiak: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:05) Ryan Winterton: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:24) Berkly Catton: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:44) Ridly Greig: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 13:22) Shane Pinto: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.37 (P3 13:30) Lars Eller: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 14:16) Lars Eller: bat, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 14:18) Jacob Melanson: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:04) Eeli Tolvanen: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:48) Tim Stützle: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:40) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:48) Jacob Melanson: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 8:45) Tyler Kleven: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 9:19) Dylan Cozens: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:35) Shane Pinto: GOAL, deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 1:34) Michael Amadio: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 10:09) Eeli Tolvanen: GOAL, slap, 42 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:00) Warren Foegele: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 2:42) Tim Stützle: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 3:58) Brady Tkachuk: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:24) Matty Beniers: GOAL, tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:16) Brandon Montour: GOAL, slap, 40 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 17:45)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
12 Shane Pinto 123 +2 40.76 2118:18
18 Tim Stützle 101 0 20.18 1017:51
71 Ridly Greig 000 0 50.42 2017:11
24 Dylan Cozens 101 +1 70.13 5016:05
8 Brady Tkachuk 101 +1 100.42 1115:21
22 Michael Amadio 112 +1 40.24 2014:40
21 Nick Cousins 022 +2 10.05 0013:40
19 Drake Batherson 011 0 50.30 2112:56
28 Claude Giroux 000 +1 10.00 0012:50
37 Warren Foegele 101 +1 40.31 1111:49
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 +2 30.01 3011:42
20 Lars Eller 011 +1 40.76 2010:44
Defense
72 Thomas Chabot 022 +1 50.15 0126:12
2 Artem Zub 011 +1 50.03 0121:55
4 Nick Jensen 011 +2 20.01 1020:33
43 Tyler Kleven 101 +2 20.21 3019:09
10 Jordan Spence 000 +1 20.04 1118:15
85 Jake Sanderson 000 +1 60.08 0112:52
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Linus Ullmark 21417 .810 2.00 -2.00

Seattle Kraken

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Chandler Stephenson 000 0 10.09 0119:09
27 Berkly Catton 000 -2 50.37 0018:02
10 Matty Beniers 101 -2 20.04 2217:46
17 Eeli Tolvanen 101 +1 50.17 3017:13
7 Jordan Eberle 022 -2 40.43 1216:14
84 Kaapo Kakko 000 -1 10.03 0016:06
51 Shane Wright 000 -1 00.00 0315:10
19 Jared McCann 000 -3 20.02 6014:49
26 Ryan Winterton 011 -1 50.04 0014:02
59 Ben Meyers 011 -1 20.09 1014:02
63 Jacob Melanson 101 0 30.44 4011:10
71 Jaden Schwartz 000 0 00.00 2006:27
Defense
62 Brandon Montour 101 -1 60.15 2228:18
4 Jamie Oleksiak 000 -1 20.02 0423:08
29 Vince Dunn 011 -3 20.01 0018:07
8 Cale Fleury 011 0 10.02 6315:30
41 Ryker Evans 000 0 20.06 0015:29
6 Adam Larsson 000 -3 00.00 1115:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joey Daccord 37730 .811 4.10 -2.90

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
12 Shane Pinto C +3.62 +2.15 +0.49 +1.22 -0.30 +0.03 +0.03 — 18:18
22 Michael Amadio R +2.59 +1.30 +0.15 +1.15 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:40
21 Nick Cousins C +2.37 +1.10 +0.03 +1.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:40
43 Tyler Kleven D +2.15 +0.75 +0.13 +1.66 -0.38 0.00 -0.02 — 19:13
89 Lars Eller C +2.04 +0.70 +0.50 +0.93 -0.15 +0.03 +0.04 — 10:44
2 Artem Zub D +1.99 +0.70 +0.02 +1.23 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:55
3 Nick Jensen D +1.64 +0.55 +0.01 +1.10 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:32
7 Brady Tkachuk L +1.64 +0.75 +0.27 +0.55 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 15:18
37 Warren Foegele L +1.54 +0.75 +0.20 +0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:49
72 Thomas Chabot D +1.39 +1.40 +0.10 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 26:12
19 Drake Batherson R +1.31 +0.70 +0.20 +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:56
85 Jake Sanderson D +1.30 0.00 +0.05 +1.22 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:52
18 Tim Stützle C +1.25 +0.75 +0.12 +0.35 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 17:51
24 Dylan Cozens C +1.18 +0.75 +0.08 +0.21 +0.15 -0.02 0.00 — 16:05
20 Fabian Zetterlund L +0.80 0.00 +0.01 +0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:42
28 Claude Giroux R +0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.76 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 12:50
71 Ridly Greig C +0.42 0.00 +0.28 -0.02 +0.15 -0.01 +0.02 — 17:11
10 Jordan Spence D +0.41 0.00 +0.03 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:19
35 Linus Ullmark G -2.00 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.00 59:41

Seattle Kraken

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
20 Eeli Tolvanen R +1.16 +0.75 +0.11 +0.45 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:13
63 Jacob Melanson R +1.02 +0.75 +0.29 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:10
8 Cale Fleury D +1.00 +0.70 +0.01 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 15:30
41 Ryker Evans D +0.70 0.00 +0.04 +0.51 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:29
7 Jordan Eberle R +0.45 +1.10 +0.28 -0.88 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 16:14
26 Ryan Winterton C +0.06 +0.55 +0.03 -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:02
17 Jaden Schwartz L -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:27
9 Chandler Stephenson C -0.20 0.00 +0.06 -0.22 0.00 -0.07 +0.03 — 19:09
59 Ben Meyers C -0.21 +0.70 +0.06 -0.98 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:02
10 Matty Beniers C -0.38 +0.75 +0.03 -1.22 0.00 -0.04 +0.10 — 17:46
62 Brandon Montour D -0.42 +0.75 +0.10 -1.35 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 28:18
27 Berkly Catton C -0.52 0.00 +0.24 -0.86 +0.15 -0.01 -0.04 — 18:02
51 Shane Wright C -0.62 0.00 0.00 -0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 15:10
6 Adam Larsson D -1.11 0.00 0.00 -1.14 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:18
19 Jared McCann L -1.16 0.00 +0.02 -1.66 +0.53 0.00 -0.04 — 14:49
29 Vince Dunn D -1.18 +0.70 +0.01 -1.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:07
84 Kaapo Kakko R -1.31 0.00 +0.02 -1.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:06
24 Jamie Oleksiak D -1.49 0.00 +0.02 -1.68 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 23:08
35 Joey Daccord G -2.90 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.90 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.